By Admin 
World Test Championship: The 30-run defeat against South Africa at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata has dealt a big blow to India’s World Test Championship (WTC) hopes. The team led by Shubman Gill is now at fourth place in the points table and only 10 Tests are left in front of them. The mathematics is clear, now even a single mistake can prove costly.
India’s position in WTC points table
India has collected 52 points in 8 matches and their PCT (points percentage) is only 54.17%. Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka are sitting comfortably above them. Australia has won all its matches so far without tasting defeat.
India’s remaining series is as follows:
South Africa (Domestic): 1st Test – Guwahati
Sri Lanka (Foreign): 2 test
New Zealand (overseas): 2 test
Australia (Domestic): 5 test
That means a total of 10 tests, in which 120 points will be at stake. India will play 18 matches in the entire cycle and the final basis of points will be 216.
How many wins will get a ticket to the WTC final?
Now the biggest question is how many matches out of 10 will India have to win to make its way to the finals? According to mathematics:
5 wins – 51.85% (will not work)
6 wins – 57.41% (still less)
7 wins – 62.96% (worthy of appearing in the final race)
8 wins – 68.52% (almost certain)
If we look at the PCT of previous WTC finalists, the trend is clear. To make it to the finals, a PCT of around 64–68% is required. This means India need at least 7 wins, while 8 wins will almost certainly take them to the final. Even if a match is a draw then the equation of the final will be something like this,
7 wins + 1 draw + 2 losses = 64.81%, which will be enough for the final.
India needs continuous performance
The interesting thing is that Indian players are dominating in this WTC cycle. The four batsmen who have scored the most runs in the tournament are Indians:
Shubman Gill – 950 runs (5 centuries)
KL Rahul – 768 runs
Ravindra Jadeja – 665 runs
Yashasvi Jaiswal – 642 runs
Mohammed Siraj (37 wickets) and Jasprit Bumrah (27 wickets) are still the most reliable weapons in the bowling department, but India will have to show more stability as a team.
What is the real path of India?
The final plan for India looks like this:
1- D. Beating Africa (1st Test)
2- Clean sweep of Sri Lanka on foreign soil (2 Tests)
3- At least 1 win, 1 draw from New Zealand
4- At least 3 wins out of 5 against Australia
By doing this India will get:
7 wins + 1 draw + 2 losses = approximately 64.81%
This means that India can make a strong comeback in the race for the WTC final.