15 Jan 2026, Thu

Biggest demonstration against Khamenei government, what effect it will have on India, how much will inflation increase?

The protests that started in Iran in December 2025 have now spread across the country. These demonstrations have reached more than 100 cities and have become the biggest challenge against the government of Iran. This is considered to be the biggest protest after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. This situation is very important for India because many of India’s strategic and economic interests are linked to Iran.

Why are there protests in Iran?

The demonstrations in Iran started mainly due to economic problems. People are angry with the huge fall of the Iranian currency (Rial), inflation, unemployment and rising prices of food items. It started from the Grand Bazaar of Tehran, where shopkeepers went on strike.

Soon these demonstrations became political and slogans started being raised against the rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. There is a big participation of women and youth in this. There have been thousands of deaths and thousands of arrests so far due to the action of security forces. There is also an internet blackout, making it difficult to get information.

Why is Iran important for India?

India and Iran have strong strategic and trade relations…

  • Chabahar Port: India has invested 500 million dollars (about Rs 4,000 crore) in this port. This port gives India access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and Europe by bypassing Pakistan. This is a major part of India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy. The work of Chabahar-Zahedan railway line connected to Chabahar is going to be completed by mid-2026.
  • International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC): Through Iran, goods reach India, Russia and Europe quickly and cheaply. This reduces time by 40% and expenses by 30%.
  • Oil and trade: Despite US sanctions, India has been importing oil from Iran. Besides, goods like dry fruits and rice are exported. Iran is a big trading partner of India.

Apart from this, Iran is an important ally of India on forums like BRICS and SCO.

Can the protests benefit or harm India?

If instability in Iran leads to the formation of a new government that wants stronger ties with India, the Chabahar and INSTC projects could be expedited. Business may increase. But-

  • Instability may delay the Chabahar project. The work of railway line and port may stop.
  • There may be a global increase in oil prices, due to which oil will become expensive for India.
  • US sanctions (CAATSA) may be activated again as before.
  • China can get benefit because it is working on Gwadar port of Pakistan. It is just 170 km away from Chabahar.
  • Export of Basmati rice from India to Iran has stopped, due to which exporters’ money may get stuck and farmers may be affected.
  • Thousands of Indians (especially students) are stranded in Iran. The Government of India has issued a travel advisory and asked to keep in touch with the embassy.

What is the reaction of the Indian government on the situation in Iran?

The Indian government is keeping an eye on the situation in Iran. The Ministry of External Affairs has advised Indian citizens to stay away from the protest areas and stay in touch with the embassy. India has insisted on maintaining relations with Iran, but is currently adopting a ‘wait and watch’ policy.

Overall, these ongoing protests in Iran are challenging for India. Projects like Chabahar and INSTC are very important for India’s regional reach. If the situation becomes normal soon then it will be fine, otherwise there may be economic and strategic loss in the long run.

Source link

By Admin

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *