By Admin 
Goldman Sachs between Israel-Iran War says that if the oil supply from Hormuz Strait is half for a month and then remains 10 per cent less by the next 11 months, then the price of Brent crude can temporarily reach $ 110 per barrel. In such a situation, the average oil price in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be $ 95 per barrel.
What is going on in the oil market right now?
Recently, oil prices have become unstable by the US after the Aermarkation on Iran. The price of Brent crude reached a height of 5 months on Monday to $ 78, but later came to $ 75.4. WTI crude was also seen around $ 74. Due to the increasing tension between Iran and America, global concern about Hormuz Strait is depth, because this path is necessary for 27 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent LNG supply.
What will be the effect on India?
Talking to Business Standard, Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda said that if the price of oil increases by 10 per cent for some time, the economy will not be affected, but if it persists for a long time above $ 100, it can have a serious impact on inflation, consumption and GDP. He said that at the beginning of the year, the government had estimated the crude oil on $ 80 per barrel basis, so the prices of more than that can prove to be red flag.
Can hormuz really shut down?
The Iran’s Parliament has recently passed a resolution that has been approved to close the hormuz straight in an emergency, although the final decision is with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. According to Goldman Sachs, the possibility of closing Hormuz in 2025 is believed to be up to 52 percent. Many ships have already started changing their route.
What can happen next?
Experts believe that OPEC+ countries have additional production of 6 million barrels per day, so they can control prices. In addition, shell oil production in the US may also increase if prices remained above $ 70.
How is Iran’s oil status?
In March 2025, Iran’s oil exports reached 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day. Iran’s main customer is China, who buys 80-90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. According to Bloomberg’s report, since June 13, Iran has rapidly assembled the oil on the island of Kharg, which is its major export terminal.
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