The voting process for 243 assembly seats in Bihar has been completed in two phases on November 6 and November 11. With the end of voting, exit polls have come out regarding Bihar, in all the exit polls NDA government seems to be formed. However, the results will be known on November 14, the day of counting, which way the public’s decision has gone. There are a total of two assembly seats in Arwal, Bihar, experts’ opinion on who will win or lose on these two seats has come out.

There are 2 assembly seats in Arwal, Bihar, out of which there is no news of relief for the NDA, the Arwal assembly seat seems to be going to the Grand Alliance. There is a tough contest between Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal United on Kurta Assembly seat.

Party wise division in Arwal district
Total Seat- 2
NDA- 0
Grand Alliance-1 (CPMIL)
tough competition-1

Arwal Assembly Constituency

In the election held in Arwal between BJP’s Manoj Sharma and CPI(ML)’s Mahanand, CPI(ML) is being said to be the edge. Local journalists Raju Singh, Sanjay Kumar and Anirudh Kumar are telling Mahanand Singh further. Experts believe that Mahanand of Male can defeat BJP candidate Manoj Sharma on Arwal seat.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Kurtha Assembly Constituency

Talking about Kurtha assembly constituency, there is a direct contest between RJD’s Suday Yadav and JDU’s Pappu Verma. According to local reporters Sujit Kumar and Sanjay Sonar, there is a tough competition between the two, in which Pappu Verma of JDU is being said to be the edge. If we talk party wise, one seat is certain for the Left and the contest for the other is tough.

In the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, voting has ended on 10 seats in Saran district and now all eyes are on the counting of votes to be held on November 14. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll, JDU may get 2 seats, BJP 4 and RJD 2 seats. Whereas tough competition is being said on 2 seats.

Chhapra became the hottest seat

According to political expert Prabhat Kiran Himanshu, this time Chhapra assembly seat has become the center of discussion in entire Bihar. Bhojpuri cinema superstar Khesari Lal Yadav is contesting here on RJD ticket, while BJP candidate Chhoti Kumari is in the fray from NDA.

The voters of the city have always been decisive, and on the day of voting, a huge crowd was seen at the urban booths. However, with former BJP mayor Rakhi Gupta contesting as an independent, NDA votes may get divided.

Himanshu says that the contest in Chhapra is very interesting. There is a direct competition between Khesari Lal’s star power and the strong organization of NDA.

Party wise distribution of 10 seats of Saran –

– NDA: 6 seats
– Grand Alliance: 2 seats
– Tough competition: 2 seats

Battle of ‘Singh vs Yadav’ in Manjhi

Political expert Prabhat Kiran Himanshu says that this time JDU’s Randhir Singh, son of former MP Prabhunath Singh, is in the fray for Manjhi assembly seat. His contest is against CPIM’s Satyendra Yadav. But with BJP rebel Rana Pratap Singh contesting as an independent, this seat has turned into a triangular contest.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Biharkhes

Karishma Rai changed the equations in Parsa

Chapra’s senior journalist Bipin Bihari Srivastava says that Parsa assembly seat has also become a hot seat this time. Here RJD has given ticket to Dr. Karishma Rai, sister-in-law of Tej Pratap Yadav, while outgoing MLA Chhotalal Rai has changed party and contested the elections from JDU.

According to Bipin Bihari, there is a situation of doubt among the public after the change of party of Chhotalal Rai. Karishma Rai is young, educated and there is enthusiasm about her among the local voters.

IT minister’s reputation at stake in Amanour

According to journalist Bipin Bihari Srivastava, there is a direct contest on the Amnaur seat between Bihar government’s IT Minister Krishna Kumar Mantu (BJP) and RJD’s District President Sunil Rai. The strength of the organization and the image of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may work in Mantu’s favor, but the competition is tough.

On the other hand, this time in Baniyapur also the battle of credibility is being fought. Here too, former MP Prabhunath Singh’s younger brother Kedarnath Singh has contested the elections on BJP ticket. Who has faced competition from Chandni Devi, wife of former MLA late Ashok Kumar Singh.

While this time RJD has fielded Shailendra Pratap Singh from Taraiya, NDA has placed its bet on outgoing MLA Janak Singh, both the candidates come from Rajput community and both have a good hold in their areas.

Women voters became a factor

Political expert Ranjan Srivastava said that this time the role of women voters has become decisive in Saran. He told that Nitish Kumar has a good hold on women voters. The impact of his programs was clearly visible this time. Therefore, NDA candidates can get a big benefit from women votes.

According to Ranjan, out of 10 seats in Saran, 6 seats can go to NDA’s account, while the Grand Alliance is strong on the remaining 4 seats.

The politics of Gopalganj district has become very interesting this time. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, out of 6 assembly seats in the district, NDA is seen getting 2 seats, Grand Alliance is seen getting 1 seat, while there is a close contest on 3 seats. Political experts say that this time local resentment, development and women’s votes have shown more impact than caste equations.

Congress has the upper hand in Gopalganj

This time the contest on Gopalganj seat is very interesting. Political expert Sanjay Kumar Abhay says that Congress seems to have the upper hand here. He said that BJP was in control for 20 years, but there was no development. The Congress candidate is a Brahmin, hence the Brahmin voters who were earlier with the BJP have now gone in favor of the Congress.

Party wise distribution of 6 seats of Gopalganj-

– JDU: 2 seats
– RJD: 1 seat

Tough competition for Baikunthpur, Gopalganj and Kuchaikot assembly seats

Besides, BJP’s rebel candidate Anup Srivastava has also cast his vote. On the other hand, senior journalist Manish Bharti believes that in the name of government benefits and development for women, BJP can win by 5 thousand votes.

Senior journalist Valmiki Mani Tiwari said that the contest here is 51-49. There was resentment in BJP, but in the end everyone united. Caste equation did not work this time. Whereas political expert Gopal Mishra gave lead to Congress and said that due to less votes of BSP candidate Indira Yadav, both Yadav and Brahmin votes went towards Congress.

RJD benefits from caste equation in Barauli

There is a direct contest between RJD and JDU on Barauli seat. According to political expert Sanjay Kumar Abhay, BJP did not get the Rajput vote here, due to which RJD is benefiting. Both Muslim and Brahmin sections are voting for RJD.

Journalist Manish Bharti says that RJD can remain ahead by 10 thousand votes here, while Valmiki Mani Tiwari described the contest as a tough one. Political expert Gopal Mishra said that RJD is getting the benefit of caste equation and clean image of the candidate.

Equal contest between RJD and BJP in Baikunthpur

The situation is complicated in Baikunthpur. Political expert Sanjay Abhay says that BJP can win because RJD’s votes are being cut by BSP candidate Pradeep Rai. At the same time, political expert Manish Bharti believes that RJD can win, but the margin will be very less.

Political expert Valmiki Mani Tiwari says that the BJP candidate has worked in the area before and the effect of Rs 10,000 given to Jeevika Didis will be visible here. Political expert Gopal Mishra said that there is a 50-50 chance between the two parties and the actual voters are silent, due to which it is difficult to predict the result.

JDU gets lead in the name of development in Hathua

The contest on Hathua seat is between JDU and RJD. According to political expert Sanjay Abhay, this time the effect of the work of Nitish government will be visible and JDU will win. However, political expert Manish Bharti said that RJD has the upper hand due to Brahmin resentment.

Whereas political experts Balmiki Mani Tiwari and Gopal Mishra both agreed that JDU has an edge due to development work, gas plant and industrial projects in the area, but the difference will be less.

Trust in Minister Sunil Kumar’s development model in Bhore

Current JDU minister Sunil Kumar is once again considered a strong contender for Bhore seat. Political expert Sanjay Abhay says that the effect of establishment of industries and schemes for women will be visible in this area. Jansuraj’s Preeti Kinnar was effective in the beginning, but the votes slipped in the end.

Political expert Manish Bharti and political expert Balmiki Tiwari both believe that JDU can win by 5 thousand votes, although some votes have been scattered due to the MLA candidate.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Some political experts warned that if Brahmin voters went with Male, the results could be reversed, because last time Sunil Kumar had won by only 900 votes.

The political battle on Kuchaikot seat is very interesting. Political expert Sanjay Abhay says that this time Congress will win because Yadav, Kushwaha, Bhumihar and Muslim votes are unitedly with Congress.

At the same time, political expert Manish Bharti claims that the JDU candidate got AC installed in two thousand mosques-madrasas at his personal expense, due to which he is getting support from every section. Political expert Balmiki Tiwari also gave a slight lead to JDU, while political expert Gopal Mishra says that Congress has directly benefited from the dispersion of Brahmin and Rajput votes.

In the first phase of Bihar Assembly elections 2025, voting has been completed on 14 assembly seats of Patna district. According to ABP Live’s Expert Exit Poll 2025, NDA is seen getting 8 seats while Grand Alliance is seen getting 6 seats.

This estimate is based on the opinion of three senior journalists of Patna, Arun Kumar Pandey, Dhirendra Kumar and Santosh Kumar. Experts believe that compared to 2020, this time NDA seems to be gaining three seats.

Anant Singh will be crowned with victory on Mokama seat

According to ABP report, first of all talking about Mokama seat, all three journalists have predicted the victory of JDU candidate Anant Singh. He says that after the recent murder of Dularchand Yadav, unity among the upper caste voters has increased, due to which JDU is benefiting. Whereas on Barh Assembly seat, all three experts believe that BJP will register a comfortable victory.

Party wise seat distribution of 14 assembly seats of Patna district

BJP: 5 seats

JDU: 3 seats

RJD: 4 seats

Congress: 1 seat

CPI(ML): 1 seat

Complete equation in favor of RJD in Bakhtiyarpur and Fatuha seats.

RJD seems to be successful in maintaining its strong position in Bakhtiyarpur and Fatuha seats. According to the three journalists, the caste equations on these seats are completely in favor of RJD. BJP is said to be leading in Patna Sahib and Kumrar assembly seats. However, Santosh Kumar has expressed the possibility of a close contest in Kumrar because Jan Suraj’s candidate KC Sinha can influence the Kayastha voters.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

BJP took lead in Bankipur and Digha seats

On Bankipur and Digha seats, all three journalists are of the same opinion that BJP is leading in these two urban seats. Two journalists have claimed BJP’s victory on Danapur assembly seat, while Santosh Kumar has said that the contest here is tough. He says that the Grand Alliance can benefit in Yadav dominated areas.

Rekha Paswan seems to be getting lead on Masodhi seat

Two journalists have expressed the possibility of victory of JDU’s Shyam Rajak on Phulwari assembly seat, while Santosh Kumar called it a close contest. RJD candidate Rekha Paswan seems to be getting the lead on Masaurhi seat. Whereas Sandeep Saurabh of CPI(ML) from Paliganj is seen saving his seat.

Out of 14 seats in Patna district, NDA took lead in 8 seats.

Apart from this, the three journalists on Vikram and Maner assembly seats have unanimously said that RJD will maintain its hold here. Overall, out of 14 seats in Patna district, NDA is leading on 8 seats and Grand Alliance is leading on 6 seats. This is indicating that the contest is tough, but NDA has a slight lead.

Also read- Bihar Exit Poll 2025: NDA or Grand Alliance, whose MLA will be on 4 seats of Buxar? Exit poll figures surprised

This time also the contest on 10 assembly seats of Darbhanga district is interesting and competitive. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, NDA is expected to get 6 seats and Grand Alliance is expected to get 4 seats. That is, the Nitish-Modi factor is still showing its impact in Darbhanga, while the Grand Alliance has presented a tough contest on some seats.

In NDA, JDU is likely to get 4 seats and BJP is likely to get 2 seats, whereas in the Grand Alliance, RJD is likely to get 3 seats and CPI (M) is likely to get 1 seat.

NDA ahead despite vote boycott in Kusheshwarsthan

According to senior local journalist Santosh Poddar, this time the contest on Kusheshwarsthan seat was very close. JDU candidate Atirek Kumar definitely suffered loss due to vote boycott in some Panchayats, but due to Modi-Nitish factor, victory seems to be going to NDA. Independent Ganesh Bharti got some votes from Biraul area, but he will not be decisive.

Party wise seat distribution

JDU – 4 seats

BJP – 2 seats

RJD – 3 seats

CPI (M) – 1 seat

Binod Mishra gets lead due to unity of Brahmin votes in Alinagar

According to political expert Murari Jha, there is a tough fight on Alinagar seat between RJD’s Binod Mishra and BJP’s folk singer Maithili Thakur. But the issue of infighting and local versus outside candidates became decisive here. Binod Mishra has got the advantage of being local, due to which the chances of victory of the Grand Alliance are strong.

Women changed the equation in Darbhanga rural

According to political expert Amit Kumar, RJD had been in control of Darbhanga Rural for a long time, but this time JDU candidate Rajesh Kumar Mandal (Ishwar Mandal) got tremendous support. The impact of Nitish government’s schemes, especially the Rs 10,000 assistance scheme, was visible on women and new voters. The contest may be close, but NDA is said to be in the lead.

NDA has lead in Benipur

Senior journalist Deepak Jha says that women played a big role in Benipur seat. JDU’s Vinay Chaudhary alias Ajay Chaudhary has benefited from Nitish’s image. Congress’s Mithilesh Chaudhary is definitely trying to make a dent in the Brahmin votes, but overall the position of NDA seems strong.

Sanjay Saraogi’s hat-trick confirmed in Darbhanga Urban

According to expert Kumar Roshan, BJP MLA Sanjay Saraogi, who has won 5 consecutive times, seems to be winning once again. Although VIP candidates Umesh Sahni and Jansuraj’s Rakesh Mishra may cut some votes, but the impact will be limited.

According to political expert Ramesh Kumar, this time there is a triangular contest on Hayaghat seat. There is resentment in the area against BJP MLA Ramchandra Sah, and Aam Aadmi Party’s Ravindra Singh (Chintu Singh) is also giving a tough challenge. Here CPI(M)’s Shyam Bharti may get an advantage. Therefore, the possibility of victory of the Grand Alliance is being expressed.

Senior journalist Tinku Kumar says that in Bahadurpur there was a close contest between ministers Madan Sahni (JDU) and Bhola Yadav (RJD). However, due to Madan Sahni’s development image and local influence, NDA is said to have the upper hand.

This time RJD’s Afzal Ali Khan is getting lead in Gaudabauram seat. According to journalist Shankar Sahni, VIP withdrew its candidate, due to which the Mallah vote went to the Grand Alliance. BJP candidate Sujit Kumar had to face anti-incumbency.

Equation in favor of Faraz Fatmi in Kewati

According to political expert Rajan Kumar, this time RJD candidate Faraz Fatmi is in a strong position in the Yadav-Muslim dominated Keoti seat. The hold of his father Ali Ashraf Fatmi and the unity of Yadav voters is giving an edge to the Grand Alliance.

Jeevesh Mishra’s path to hat-trick is easy

Senior journalist Arun Pathak says that BJP minister Jivesh Mishra is moving towards victory for the third consecutive time on Jale seat. Congress’s Rishi Mishra can make some impact on Brahmin votes, but due to the rebellion of independent Masukur Usmani, the vote bank of the grand alliance has weakened.

The atmosphere is clear on 10 seats of Darbhanga. NDA is in a position to win 6 seats, Grand Alliance 4 seats. Where NDA is getting the benefit of Nitish’s development model and Modi factor.

Whereas the Grand Alliance is in the fray relying on local faces and caste equations. Overall, the equations have changed in Darbhanga, but the inclination of power remains towards NDA.

The political battle of Muzaffarpur district has become very interesting this time. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, NDA is leading in 11 assembly seats of the district, while the Grand Alliance (MGB) is also giving a tough fight. Out of the total 11 seats in the district, NDA is contesting on 5 seats, Grand Alliance on 4 and a close contest is being considered on two seats. Especially the contest in Bochaha and Kudhani assembly remains very interesting.

Niranjan Rai has the upper hand in Gaighat

According to senior journalists Vishal and Ameer, RJD candidate Niranjan Rai is getting an edge due to JSP’s Ashok Kumar Singh cutting votes from Gaighat seat. JDU candidate Komal Singh seems to be bearing the brunt of this vote division.

Rama Nishad has lead in Aurai

According to experts Dheeraj and Vishal, NDA’s Rama Nishad is getting the benefit of Sahni and Bhumihar votes in Aurai Assembly. Bhumihar voters were angry with outgoing BJP MLA Ramsurat Rai. On the other hand, Aftab Alam has also made inroads in Muslim votes, due to which Rama Nishad is in the lead.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Munna Yadav’s path is difficult in Meenapur

In Meenapur, RJD’s Munna Yadav is not getting forward votes this time like last time. According to experts, his ‘brown hair’ comment and domineering image have harmed him. This time the excitement is at its peak in Bochaha (SC) seat.

According to senior journalists Dheeraj, Vishal and Amir, there is a very tough contest going on between Baby Kumari (LJPRV) and Amar Paswan (RJD). A small difference between the two can decide victory or defeat.

The sound of defeat in Sakra

Aditya Kumar is contesting as JDU candidate in Bihar Assembly elections 2025. Former minister Ashok Chaudhary’s son may have to face defeat on Sakra seat. According to experts, the public is angry due to not doing any special work in the last term and the NDA candidate is suffering due to this.

Whereas in Kudhni Assembly, NDA’s Kedar Gupta has been accused of not working. His core voter is also somewhat indifferent this time, but still the contest here remains fierce.

Vijendra Chaudhary ahead on Muzaffarpur urban seat

Vijendra Chaudhary of Congress is leading in Muzaffarpur Nagar Assembly. According to political experts, internal opposition in BJP has harmed NDA candidate Ranjan Singh.

Ajit Kumar’s return to Kanti

JDU’s Ajit Kumar is strongly ahead in Kanti this time. Local senior journalists Dheeraj and Vishal say that despite fighting as an independent last time, Ajit Kumar had performed well, now his position has become stronger after getting the party symbol.

BJP’s Arun Singh seems to be getting lead in Baruraj. According to experts, there is no strong candidate in the fray against him, and Jan Swaraj Party is also not able to make much impact.

RJD’s Shankar Yadav seems to be getting advantage in Paru Assembly. According to journalists, NDA did not give ticket to MLA Ashok Singh for four consecutive terms, due to which local voters are angry and this anger is going in favor of RJD.

Raju Singh’s lead in Sahebganj

On Sahebganj seat, NDA’s Raju Singh is getting the benefit of his popularity among the people and constant connect with the public. Experts believe that his ground hold can give him victory.

This time the equation of power seems to be completely balanced in Muzaffarpur district. According to the exit poll, close fight on NDA 5, Grand Alliance 4, and 2 seats shows that the people of the district have not made up their mind to give absolute majority to any one party. The result of seats like Bochaha and Kudhni can change the political picture of the entire district.