Bengal Election Opinion Poll: Even before the elections, the contest in West Bengal politics has reached a very interesting turn. Matriz’s latest opinion poll has clearly indicated that this time the fight is going to be straight, tough and will drag on till the last vote.

According to the survey, in vote percentage, Trinamool Congress may get 43% support, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may get 41% support and other parties may get 16% support. That means TMC definitely has a slight lead, but this difference is so small that the electoral picture can change at any time.

The special thing is that this difference of 2% can prove to be decisive on many seats. Whereas 16% ‘other’ votes can play the role of kingmaker in this election. In such a situation, it is clear that this time the contest in Bengal is going to be very tough.

‘Others’ played – whose game will it spoil?

In this close contest of Bengal, 16% vote share of ‘Others’ has become the biggest suspense. This camp includes parties like Congress, Left and Owaisi’s AIMIM, which are not directly fighting for power, but can have a big impact on the results.

Political equations show that these votes are traditionally considered anti-BJP, but their presence in many seats can also make a dent in TMC’s vote bank.

Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has also warned about this. He said, ‘In the last assembly elections, polarization of votes had cost us the price of defeat.’

This time AIMIM is contesting the elections in alliance with the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) formed by Humayun Kabir. It is believed that the AIMIM-AJUP alliance can affect the vote share in Muslim dominated seats.

At the same time, this election is mainly being seen as a direct contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In such a situation, this vote share of ‘others’ can become a factor that complicates the contest more than making any one party win. Now the focus is on in whose favor this 16% vote tilts and in whose favor it spoils the game.

16% of ‘Others’-Who is the kingmaker?

This pre-poll survey of ABP-Matrize is not just statistics but an indication of electoral trend. This shows that this time in Bengal, there is a direct fight between TMC and BJP, where no party can register a comfortable victory. At the same time, it is also clear that the final results will completely depend on the last stages of voting and the mood of the voters.

The most important role in this entire electoral equation is believed to be the 16% vote share of ‘Others’. This is the part that can ultimately decide the stance of power. Small parties and independent candidates, who are often ignored, can become real game changers this time. If this vote tilts towards any one big party, then the entire mathematics of seats can change in a moment.

Experts believe that this 16% vote will play an important role in giving a decisive lead in a close contest. This is the reason why big parties are now making different strategies to woo these voters – from local issues to regional equations, every aspect is being focused on.

It is clear that this time the victory will not be decided only by the big vote share, but by getting this decisive part of ‘others’ in our favor. This means that instead of strengthening one side, this vote share can play a more important role in spoiling the game of the other. Now the big question is whether the ‘other’ votes will spoil the equation this time too or will it give a decisive lead to any one party?

Increase in votes, but game stuck in seats

Interestingly, there is no direct correlation between the vote percentage and the estimates of seats. The figures indicate that the contest is as close in seats as it is in votes. According to the survey, Trinamool Congress may get 140 to 160 seats, while Bharatiya Janata Party may get between 130 to 150 seats. Whereas other parties are expected to get 8 to 16 seats.

This means that despite the lead, the path does not seem easy for TMC. BJP is very close and even a little vote can change the entire arithmetic of swing seats.

It is clear that this election is not going to be a story of one-sided victory, but is indicating a tough competition that will continue till the last stage, where the decision of every seat will be very important.

Difference of 2% votes, but decision of power

There seems to be a difference of only 2% votes between Trinamool Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, but this small gap can become the key to power. In electoral politics, sometimes small differences become the cause of big upsets, and Bengal is not an exception to this. On many seats in the state, victory or defeat has been decided by very few votes. In such a situation, a swing of 2% can change the mathematics of dozens of seats. This is the reason why both the parties are now in no mood to give any relaxation.

The campaign on the ground has intensified – from booth management to micro-level strategy, work is being done in detail on every aspect. It is clear that this time the contest will depend more on strategy and last-minute trends than on statistics, where every vote can prove to be decisive.

Also read: Assam Assembly Election 2026: ‘Women will get reservation, government called a special session of Parliament,’ PM Modi made a big announcement from Assam.