Himanta Biswa Sarma’s record third victory in Assam not only saved power but also ushered in a new and challenging political era for Muslims. BJP CM Himanta, who won 82 out of 126 seats, made many objectionable statements against Muslims in election rallies. On the other hand, the victory of Badruddin Ajmal and the defeat of his party AIUDF has indicated a significant change in the Muslim politics of Assam. But the benefit to the community has now turned into a big question. How?

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s big statements against Muslims

Himanta Biswa Sarma called Muslims ‘Mian’ and made many controversial and strong statements one after the other:

• Shoot signal: He shared a video on social media (which was later removed), in which he was allegedly seen making a symbolic gesture of firing a rifle at people of the Muslim community. On this, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi had lodged a complaint with the police.
• ‘Ready to go to jail’: Responding to Owaisi’s complaint, Sarma said, ‘I am ready to go to jail, what do I have to do? I don’t know about any video… but I am against Bangladeshi infiltrators and will remain against them.
• Call for ‘non-cooperation’: In February 2026, he called for ‘non-cooperation’ and ‘civil disobedience’ against Muslims of Bengali origin, so as to create an environment in which ‘they cannot live in Assam’. He appealed to the people, ‘Before boarding a rickshaw, think whose rickshaw you are boarding.’
• ‘Go away on your own’ strategy: In March 2026, he openly said that he wanted to create such ‘pressure’ that Bengali-speaking Muslims would ‘go away on their own’. He said measures like eviction, depriving government benefits and firing rubber bullets at illegal infiltrators can be taken.
• Direct warning: Sarma also said, ‘If the Muslim population in Assam crosses 50% then non-Muslims will not survive.’

Will the third term of the Chief Minister increase the problems of Muslims?

Given the past policies and future promises of Sarma and his government, the next five years could be extremely difficult for the Muslims of Assam, especially those of Bengali origin, for 3 reasons:

• Political marginalization in the assembly: After the 2023 delimitation, the number of seats where Muslims had influence reduced from 35 to an estimated 20. BJP did not give ticket to even a single Muslim candidate in the 2026 elections. The Muslim vote got completely divided between parties like Congress and AIUDF.
• Implementation of strict policies: BJP’s manifesto promises to implement Uniform Civil Code (UCC), make strict laws against ‘Love Jihad’ and ‘Land Jihad’. Besides, there has been talk of vacating the land from illegal infiltrators (whose target is Bengali Muslims) and giving land rights under ‘Mission Basandhara’.
• Continuation of evictions and oppression: Sarma had already clearly said that during the last tenure, encroachment was removed from more than 1.5 lakh bighas of land and this campaign will continue. Thousands of people have been sent to Bangladesh under the ‘pushback’ policy, in which many Indian citizens have also been victims.

So will we not get the benefit of Badruddin Ajmal’s victory?

Badruddin Ajmal won from the newly created Binnakandi seat by 35,380 votes, but this could not conceal a major devastation for his party AIUDF. The party got only 2 seats, which is its worst performance till date. From this:

• Limited advantage: It is a big victory for Ajmal to return to state politics after losing his Dhubri seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But with only two MLAs it is extremely difficult to mount effective resistance in the Assembly.
• Historical decline: The downfall of AIUDF, once seen as the ‘protector’ of Muslims, began after the release of the draft NRC in 2018. About 19 lakh people were left out, half of whom were Bengali Muslims. The party failed to protect its vote bank.
• Migration to Congress: Assam Congress breaks alliance with AIUDF to avoid BJP’s allegations of ‘Muslim appeasement’. The result was that Muslim voters left AIUDF and turned to Congress.

BJP’s landslide victory and Himanta Biswa Sarma’s bold strategy have definitely created an environment where they can implement their agenda more strongly. Badruddin Ajmal’s victory is certainly a symbolic achievement, but there is little hope of any major political benefit for the Muslims of Assam from it. The twin challenges of political marginalization and harsh policies will remain the biggest hurdles facing the community in the next five years.

In the Assam Assembly elections 2026, BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami has won from Jorhat seat. He defeated Gaurav Gogoi of Congress by a margin of 23,182 votes. Congress candidate Gaurav Gogoi got a total of 46,257 votes, but he lagged behind in the contest. This result is being seen as a big victory for BJP, while Congress has suffered a setback in this important seat.

Exit Polls Results 2026: Assembly elections were concluded in four states of the country – Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and a union territory Puducherry – with the second phase of voting in West Bengal on Wednesday (April 29, 2026). As soon as the voting is over, the exit poll data of all the states has come out, in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seen forming the government in two states and one union territory with a clear majority in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.

At the same time, according to exit poll data, Congress-led alliance UDF seems to be forming the government in Kerala with absolute majority. Whereas in Tamil Nadu, the alliance led by ruling Chief Minister MK Stalin’s party DMK may once again return to power.

What are the exit poll figures in West Bengal?

This time assembly elections have been conducted in two phases in West Bengal. According to the exit poll data revealed in the survey by poll agencies, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) government, which has been ruling West Bengal for 15 years, seems to be wavering in the elections this time, while the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can form the government in the state with a clear majority.

• Matrix – BJP may get 146-161 seats, TMC may get 125-140 seats, others may get 6-10 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies – 150-160 seats for BJP, 130-140 seats for TMC, 6-10 seats for others.
• Praja Polls – BJP 178-208, TMC 85-110, others 0-5 seats.
• Poll Diary – BJP 142-171, TMC 99-127, others 5-9 seats.
• P-Mark – 150-175 seats for BJP, 118-138 seats for TMC, 2-6 seats for others.
• People’s Pulse – BJP may get 95-110, TMC may get 178-189 seats, others may get 1-3 seats.

BJP gets clear majority in Assam, Congress lags behind

According to exit poll data, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam seems to be returning to power once again. At the same time, the opposition Congress party seems to be lagging behind in this electoral field.

• Matrix – BJP may get 88-98 seats, INC may get 22-32 seats, others may get 3-5 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies – 85-95 seats for BJP, 25-32 seats for INC, 6-12 seats for others.
• Poll Diary – 86-101 seats for BJP, 15-26 seats for INC, 3-7 seats for others.
• Axis My India – BJP 88-100, INC 24-36, Others 0 seats.

Also read: Assam Exit Poll: NDA’s strong comeback in Assam, Congress defeated in front of Himanta magic

Stalin government returning again in Tamil Nadu?

According to exit poll data, the ruling DMK government of Chief Minister MK Stalin may once again return to power in Tamil Nadu. According to the survey data of Matrice, the opposition AIADMK seems to be giving competition to MK Stalin’s party. Whereas Thalapathy Vijay’s party TVK is expected to get 98-120 seats according to India Today-Axis My India.

• Matrix – DMK 122-132, AIADMK 87-100, TVK 10-12, Others 10-18 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies – 145-160 seats for DMK, 50-65 seats for AIADMK, 00 for TVK, 18-26 seats for others.
• Poll Diary – DMK 148-168, AIADMK 61-81, TVK 00, Others 01-09 seats.
• Praja Poll – DMK 148-168, AIADMK 61-81, TVK 00, Others 01-09 seats.
• India Today-Axis My India – DMK 92-110, AIADMK 22-32, TVK 98-120, Others 00 seats.

Congress may get power in Kerala

At the same time, according to exit poll data, this time Congress Party led UDF alliance may get power in Kerala. Whereas the ruling leftist alliance LDF seems to be lagging behind in the election results.

• Matrix – LDF+ 60-65, INC+ 70-75, BJP 00, Others 05-09.
• Chanakya Strategies – LDF+ 58-64, INC+ 72-80, BJP 00, Others 03-07 seats.
• People’s Pulse – LDF+ 55-65, INC+ 75-85, BJP 00-03, Others 00 seats.
• India Today-Axis My India – LDF+ 49-62, INC+ 78-90, BJP 00-03, Others 00 seats.

Who is getting majority in Puducherry??

According to exit poll data in the Union Territory of Puducherry, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is forming the government with a majority. Whereas the Congress party seems to be lagging behind in the electoral field.

• Praja Poll – BJP+ 19-25, INC+ 06-08, Others 00 seats.
• India Today-Axis My India – BJP+ may get 16-20, INC+ may get 06-08, others may get 03-07 seats.

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This BJP leader made this appeal to 60,000 Bengalis in Hyderabad regarding Bengal elections, statement regarding Mamata Banerjee goes viral

Opinion Poll 2026: There is intense political activity regarding the assembly elections to be held in four states of India – West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Meanwhile, opinion polls of the four states have come out, in which it has become clear which party or alliance is getting the lead in these four states. Elections are going to be held in two phases on 294 assembly seats in West Bengal, where CM Mamata Banerjee’s ruling party Trinamool Congress (TMC) is contesting with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while in Assam, which has 126 assembly seats, the Congress party is in the fray against the ruling BJP.

CM Stalin’s party DMK is going to compete with the NDA alliance of BJP and AIADMK for 234 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu, while the ruling left alliance LDF, UDF alliance with other parties including Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party are in the electoral fray to win 140 assembly seats in Kerala.

Whose government is being formed in Bengal according to the opinion poll?

According to the latest opinion poll of Matriz, the contest in West Bengal politics has reached a very interesting mode even before the elections. The figures revealed in the opinion poll are shocking for all the political parties. According to Matriz’s survey, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) may get 140 to 160 seats in the West Bengal Assembly elections with 43 percent votes. At the same time, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can win 130 to 150 seats with 41 percent votes, while other parties of the state can win 8 to 16 seats with 16 percent votes. The majority figure in West Bengal is 148. In such a situation, TMC definitely has a slight lead of 2 percent in the opinion poll, but this difference is so small that the electoral picture can change at any time.

Clean sweep for BJP in Assam in opinion poll

According to the survey conducted by Matrize and Chanakya, the BJP-led NDA alliance is in a strong position in the upcoming assembly elections in Assam and its chances of coming back to power or retaining power appear high.

According to the matrix, if we talk about vote share, BJP+ alliance can get 46 percent votes, Congress+ alliance can get 36 percent votes and others can get 18 percent votes. Talking about seats, BJP+ alliance is likely to get 92 to 102 seats, Congress+ alliance is likely to get 22 to 32 seats and others are likely to get 4 to 7 seats.

At the same time, according to Chanakya’s survey, in Assam, Bharatiya Janata Party alliance may get 83 to 90 seats, Congress+ alliance may get 30 to 36 seats and others may get 3 to 6 seats.

NDA’s star can shine in Tamil Nadu

According to the MATRIZE opinion poll shown on India TV, this time the star of AIADMK led NDA can shine in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections. According to the opinion poll, MK Stalin’s party DMK may get 102 to 115 seats in the elections. Whereas the NDA alliance of BJP and AIADMK is likely to get 107 to 120 seats. At the same time, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) of actor-turned-politician Thalapathy Vijay may get 5 to 12 seats and others are likely to get one to six seats.

Who will get power in the three-way contest in Kerala?

According to the MATRIZE opinion poll shown on India TV, the ruling Left alliance in Kerala is likely to get 62 to 68 seats, while the Congress-led UDF alliance is seen getting a lead in the elections with 67 to 73 seats. Whereas in the state, Bharatiya Janata Party can win 5 to 8 seats with 15 percent vote share and others are likely to win zero to three seats.

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29 January 2026… Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said, ‘Trouble Mia Muslim in any way… If he faces trouble, he will leave Assam…’ There are only a few days left for the Assam assembly elections, in such a situation, this statement of CM Himanta seems to be working at the ground level. However, it started with delimitation in 2023. That means there were 34 Muslim dominated seats in the entire state, which had the power to overturn the results. The areas of those seats were changed, due to which now Muslims are left on only 20-22 seats. So will Muslim MLAs be eliminated in Assam? Let’s understand in the explainer…

Question 1: What is the current number of Muslim MLAs in Assam and will it decrease in 2026?
answer: The last assembly elections in India’s north-eastern state of Assam were held in 2021, in which a total of 31 Muslim MLAs were elected. Of these, 16 were from Congress and 15 were from All India United Democratic Front i.e. AIUDF. This number had the power to overturn the election results, but after just 5 years the situation changed.

Now the number of Muslim MLAs is expected to reduce to 22 in the elections to be held on April 9, 2026, because delimitation took place in Assam in 2023. If we understand in simple words, the scope or boundaries of 126 seats were changed. This will cause huge loss of votes to Muslim candidates. According to the 2011 census, the Muslim population in Assam is 34%, but the representation was already low and is going to decrease further. That means there is no big Muslim leader in Assam.

Question 2: What is delimitation and what happened to it in Assam?
answer: Due to delimitation in Assam, 126 assembly seats remained the same, but their boundaries were changed. The biggest impact was on Muslim dominated areas. Earlier 35 seats were in Muslim majority, now it has reduced to about 20. Hindu majority areas were added to many Muslim majority areas, due to which the influence of Muslim votes got scattered.

• In Barpeta district, Muslim dominated 8 seats reduced to 6.
• The 15 seats of Barak Valley were reduced to 13.
• The seats of Goalpara West became reserved for ST, where earlier Muslim MLAs used to win.
• Muslim areas like Janiya, Baghbar and Chenga were merged with Hindu majority areas.
• Dhubri and Bilasipara, two Muslim dominated seats, were merged into one.

Experts are calling it ‘Gerrymandering’ (manipulation of seats). According to Al Jazeera’s report, Muslim votes were dispersed by combining 35 Muslim-dominated seats with Hindu-dominated areas. CPI(M) state secretary Suprakash Talukdar said, ‘Hindu areas were added to Muslim seats and Muslim voters were divided into Hindu-dominated areas.’

Question 3: What will be the effect of this change?
answer: Political expert Rashid Kidwai believes that the ‘political footprint’ of Muslim voters has reduced by about 30%. Earlier Muslims were decisive on 30-35 seats, now only on 20-22. Muslim representation was less than before, now it will decrease further. If Muslim MLAs are reduced to 22, their collective strength will further weaken.

For a long time, no strong, respected leader has emerged among the Muslims of Assam (especially those of Miyan or Bengali origin). AIUDF had leaders like Badruddin Ajmal till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but he lost his seat. Now there is neither any new face who can represent the entire community, nor are the parties supporting Muslim leaders.

Rashid Kidwai said, ‘There are 31 Muslim MLAs, but they are limited to their respective constituencies. No collective voice is raised on major issues like displacement, pushback and deletion of names from the voter list. Muslim MLAs of Congress also remain silent because they fear that speaking out will reduce votes. outcome? The Muslim community is stuck in ‘political no-man’s land’.

Question 4: What is BJP’s strategy and fear of Miyan Muslims?
answer: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma has repeatedly said, ‘No need for Mia vote.’ That means BJP is openly opposing the Muslim population. CM Sarma also said, ‘Miya, harass Muslims in any way. If they are upset then they will leave Assam. In March 2026, in Barpeta, he had said, ‘Last time I broke some legs, this time I will break the spine.’

It is clear from this that this time BJP has not fielded a single Muslim candidate on 89 seats. BJP has put the burden of its ‘Muslim vote’ on its ally AGP. AGP has fielded 13 Muslim candidates on 26 seats. With this, BJP’s Hindutva image will remain intact. AGP spokesperson Kasturi Boruah said, ‘BJP is only against infiltrators and encroachment, not against Bengali Muslims.’

Whereas in 2021, Congress-AIUDF alliance had won 31 Muslim MLAs, but this time there is no alliance. Congress is dependent on Muslim votes but is silent on the issues. AIUDF is fighting alone, but its popularity has decreased. The chances of Muslim candidates are also decreasing due to division of opposition votes.

Question 5: So will the Muslim MLAs be wiped out from Assam?
answer: No, the card of Muslim MLAs from Assam will not be clean at all. Rashid Kidwai says, ‘In the 2026 elections, the number of Muslim MLAs is likely to reduce from 31 to around 20-23 or at most it can be 22. There is no possibility of it being completely eliminated (zero).

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has released the second list of candidates for the Assam Assembly elections 2026 on Tuesday (March 17). Names of 12 candidates are included in the list. Earlier, on March 9, it was released by the party, in which candidates were fielded on 9 seats. The party has announced the names of its candidates for 21 assembly constituencies. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal will contest from Binnakandi seat. Voting in Assam will take place on 9 April and counting of votes will take place on 4 May 2026.

To whom did AIUDF give ticket?

In the second list of All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), three sitting MLAs Hafiz Bashir Ahmed (Goalpara East), Nazrul Haq (Dhubri) and Ashraful Hussain (Chenga) have been given tickets again. At the same time, former MLA Ajmal himself will contest elections from Binnakandi assembly constituency. Apart from this, other candidates include Majibur Rahman (Dalgaon), Abdul Aziz (Samaguri), Musukha Basumatari (Bijni), Mukut Das (Raha) and Anup Krishna Das Talukdar (Ramakrishna Nagar).

In the first list, its three sitting MLAs are Aminul Islam, Hafiz Rafiqul Islam and Nijanur Rehman, who won from Rupahihat, Mandia and Gauripur assembly seats.

AIUDF contesting elections alone

AIUDF is not part of any opposition alliance, although it had tried to join the Congress-led alliance. Ajmal had earlier said that the party would contest on 25-30 seats in the upcoming elections. Let us tell you that in Assam, voting will be held in a phase on April 9, while the results will be declared on May 4, 2026.

Assam | All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) announces second list of candidates for Assembly Election-2026. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal will contest from the Binnakandi seat.

Polls in Assam will be held on April 9, with counting of votes scheduled for May 4, 2026. pic.twitter.com/DQ1QJDUPIF

— ANI (@ANI) March 17, 2026

How many MLAs of which party?

In the outgoing assembly, the ruling BJP has 64 MLAs, while its ally AGP has nine MLAs, UPPL has seven and BPF has three. In the opposition, Congress has 26 members, AIUDF has 15 members and CPI(M) has one MLA, along with one independent MLA. Apart from Congress and CPI(M), the other members of the opposition alliance are Assam Jatiya Parishad, All Party Hill Leaders Conference and CPI (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation.

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) MLA Aminul Islam was detained under the National Security Act. After more than 6 months in custody, the Gauhati High Court has canceled his detention order and directed that he be released if he is not wanted in any other case.

Islam, MLA from Dhing constituency of Assam, was arrested for his statement given at a rally on April 24, in which he had said that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 was a conspiracy by the BJP government at the Centre. On May 14, he got bail in this case, but on the same day he was detained under the National Security Act (NSA).

What did the Justice of Gauhati High Court say?
A bench of Justices Kalyan Rai Surana and Rajesh Majumdar of the Gauhati High Court on Friday (November 28) said the order of Islam’s detention under the NSA was illegal as the authorities had unexplained delay in acting on the application against his detention and also did not inform him about his right to present his case before the Center until the Center reminded the state of it.

What argument did the lawyer of Islam give?
A lawyer from Islam’s lawyer Shantanu Borthakur’s team said the MLA is expected to be released later on Friday. Islam was arrested on April 24 on charges including BNS Section 152, which deals with acts threatening the sovereignty, unity and integrity of India, and a similar charge of sedition under the IPC.

His detention under the NSA after he was granted bail on May 14 was based on an order of the Nagaon DC, which cited a report by the Superintendent of Police that Islam continued to indulge in activities prejudicial to public order and the security of the state and upon his speech the report said he was satisfied that Islam may continue to indulge in activities prejudicial to the security of the state.

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The era of speculation in Assam politics sometimes becomes more heated than reality and a recent case is a big example of this. For the last few days, there was a lot of discussion that Maulana Badruddin Ajmal’s party All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Congress are negotiating for an electoral agreement in Assam on the basis of a seat sharing formula.

The purpose of this alliance was said to be to prepare a strong opposition front against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam, due to which the political temperature in the state was rising, but amidst all these speculations, AIMIM has issued a big statement and put an end to the political speculations.

AIMIM Gave a big statement regarding Assam

In fact, the party All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) led by Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi has shared a post on the social media platform X on Tuesday (November 18, 2025). The party has clarified in a social media post that some rumors are being spread in the media regarding AIMIM in Assam, but all of them are completely baseless and wrong.

AIMIM clearly said that neither the party has taken any decision to start its political activities in Assam nor does it have any intention of forming an alliance with any party in the state. This announcement is a direct attack on the reports that AIMIM was being included in the political equation of Assam.

AIMIM After the statement of Congress and AIUDF focus on proximity to

This announcement by AIMIM, a party led by Hyderabad Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi, has clearly answered many questions in the politics of Assam, but the focus will now intensify on the growing closeness between Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). This statement of the party also clearly shows that AIMIM is currently focusing only on strengthening its existing strongholds and not on entering the political and electoral fray of new states.

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Kashmir terror attack: The Assam Police has arrested AIUDF MLA Aminul Islam on the case of terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir. He has been arrested on charges of treason for allegedly defending Pakistan and its involvement in the terrorist attack.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma posted on X and said that the Assam government will take strict action against all those who would dare to directly or indirectly to defend the horrific Pakistan -sponsored terrorist attack in Pahalgam.

‘People standing against India will not be spared’

Himanta Biswa Sarma said that everyone should clearly know that those who try to justify the brutal killing of innocent civilians, make them normalize or weaken, they are not using freedom of expression, they stand against the soul of India. And such people will not be spared.

Case filed against MLA Aminul Islam under several sections
Assam Police posted on X and said that on the basis of the misleading and inflammatory statements made by Dhing MLA Aminul Islam, which went viral and was likely to create adverse situation. Under this, taking a precaution, Nagaon police station registered a case under Section 152/196/197 (1)/113 (3)/353 BNS under 347/25 and MLA Aminul Islam has been arrested.

In Pahalgam, the terrorists fired on tourists on Tuesday. According to news agency PTI, 26 people have died in this attack and many injured people are being treated in the hospital. An all -party meeting has been organized on Thursday under the chairmanship of Defense Minister Rajnath Singh regarding the Pahalgam attack.

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