Himanta Biswa Sarma’s record third victory in Assam not only saved power but also ushered in a new and challenging political era for Muslims. BJP CM Himanta, who won 82 out of 126 seats, made many objectionable statements against Muslims in election rallies. On the other hand, the victory of Badruddin Ajmal and the defeat of his party AIUDF has indicated a significant change in the Muslim politics of Assam. But the benefit to the community has now turned into a big question. How?

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s big statements against Muslims

Himanta Biswa Sarma called Muslims ‘Mian’ and made many controversial and strong statements one after the other:

• Shoot signal: He shared a video on social media (which was later removed), in which he was allegedly seen making a symbolic gesture of firing a rifle at people of the Muslim community. On this, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi had lodged a complaint with the police.
• ‘Ready to go to jail’: Responding to Owaisi’s complaint, Sarma said, ‘I am ready to go to jail, what do I have to do? I don’t know about any video… but I am against Bangladeshi infiltrators and will remain against them.
• Call for ‘non-cooperation’: In February 2026, he called for ‘non-cooperation’ and ‘civil disobedience’ against Muslims of Bengali origin, so as to create an environment in which ‘they cannot live in Assam’. He appealed to the people, ‘Before boarding a rickshaw, think whose rickshaw you are boarding.’
• ‘Go away on your own’ strategy: In March 2026, he openly said that he wanted to create such ‘pressure’ that Bengali-speaking Muslims would ‘go away on their own’. He said measures like eviction, depriving government benefits and firing rubber bullets at illegal infiltrators can be taken.
• Direct warning: Sarma also said, ‘If the Muslim population in Assam crosses 50% then non-Muslims will not survive.’

Will the third term of the Chief Minister increase the problems of Muslims?

Given the past policies and future promises of Sarma and his government, the next five years could be extremely difficult for the Muslims of Assam, especially those of Bengali origin, for 3 reasons:

• Political marginalization in the assembly: After the 2023 delimitation, the number of seats where Muslims had influence reduced from 35 to an estimated 20. BJP did not give ticket to even a single Muslim candidate in the 2026 elections. The Muslim vote got completely divided between parties like Congress and AIUDF.
• Implementation of strict policies: BJP’s manifesto promises to implement Uniform Civil Code (UCC), make strict laws against ‘Love Jihad’ and ‘Land Jihad’. Besides, there has been talk of vacating the land from illegal infiltrators (whose target is Bengali Muslims) and giving land rights under ‘Mission Basandhara’.
• Continuation of evictions and oppression: Sarma had already clearly said that during the last tenure, encroachment was removed from more than 1.5 lakh bighas of land and this campaign will continue. Thousands of people have been sent to Bangladesh under the ‘pushback’ policy, in which many Indian citizens have also been victims.

So will we not get the benefit of Badruddin Ajmal’s victory?

Badruddin Ajmal won from the newly created Binnakandi seat by 35,380 votes, but this could not conceal a major devastation for his party AIUDF. The party got only 2 seats, which is its worst performance till date. From this:

• Limited advantage: It is a big victory for Ajmal to return to state politics after losing his Dhubri seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But with only two MLAs it is extremely difficult to mount effective resistance in the Assembly.
• Historical decline: The downfall of AIUDF, once seen as the ‘protector’ of Muslims, began after the release of the draft NRC in 2018. About 19 lakh people were left out, half of whom were Bengali Muslims. The party failed to protect its vote bank.
• Migration to Congress: Assam Congress breaks alliance with AIUDF to avoid BJP’s allegations of ‘Muslim appeasement’. The result was that Muslim voters left AIUDF and turned to Congress.

BJP’s landslide victory and Himanta Biswa Sarma’s bold strategy have definitely created an environment where they can implement their agenda more strongly. Badruddin Ajmal’s victory is certainly a symbolic achievement, but there is little hope of any major political benefit for the Muslims of Assam from it. The twin challenges of political marginalization and harsh policies will remain the biggest hurdles facing the community in the next five years.

After the viral video of AJUP leader Humayun Kabir in West Bengal, the days have again started falling heavy on Muslim leaders. Leaders like Asaduddin Owaisi, Gulman Nabi Azad and Badruddin Ajmal again came into limelight. Many times these leaders have been accused of working for BJP. It is said that these Muslim leaders give advantage to BJP by cutting the votes of Muslims. But how much truth is there in this and who is included in the list? Let’s understand in the explainer…

Question 1: What are the allegations against Humayun Kabir and what is the matter?
answer: Humayun Kabir is a former TMC MLA from Murshidabad district of West Bengal. After being suspended from TMC, he formed his own party Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP). On 9 April 2026, TMC released a viral video of a sting operation, in which Kabir is allegedly saying that he has a ‘covert’ understanding with BJP. In the video, he mentions a deal worth Rs 1000 crore (in some reports Rs 200 crore) and says that he will influence Muslim voters by building a mosque on the lines of Babri Masjid. This will divide TMC’s Muslim votes and BJP will get 100-120 seats. TMC alleges that Kabir is an ‘agent’ of BJP and is involved in a conspiracy to defeat Mamata Banerjee by dividing Muslim votes. Kabir has described the video as AI-generated and fake.

Question 2: What allegations have been made against Asaduddin Owaisi and AIMIM?
answer: Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has been accused for a long time that by contesting elections on Muslim dominated seats, they distribute the votes of opposition parties like Congress and TMC, which benefits BJP. Recently, AIMIM had formed an alliance with Humayun Kabir’s party in Bengal, but broke the alliance on 10 April 2026 after the video went viral. TMC leader Tanmay Ghosh and others say that Owaisi’s steps divide Muslim votes and indirectly help BJP.

Owaisi’s stand is that he is fighting for Muslim interests and TMC has done nothing for Muslims. On many occasions, Owaisi has said, ‘We are not in any conspiracy, we are the voice of Muslims.’

Question 3: What are the allegations against veteran Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad?
answer: Ghulam Nabi Azad is a former Congress leader. He left Congress in 2022 and formed his own party DPAP. Rahul Gandhi faction in Congress alleges that they work together with BJP, especially in Jammu and Kashmir. The opposition says that BJP benefited in Jammu and Kashmir due to distribution of Muslim votes through DPAP. However, Azad says that he is against the wrong policies of Congress. This allegation is old but ‘now’ has come into discussion again because people have raised it as the third name.

Question 4: Apart from these, which leaders are accused of supporting BJP?
answer: After these three big leaders, the most prominent name is Badruddin Ajmal of AIUDF party of Assam. Congress and other opposition parties in Assam allege that AIUDF benefits BJP by dividing Muslim votes. In the 2016-2021 Assam elections, Congress leader Tarun Gogoi had alleged that there is a ‘tactical deal’ between AIUDF and BJP. Congress distributes votes by fighting on AIUDF Muslim dominated seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha, Ajmal had said, ‘Congress betrayed us, their Muslim leader broke the alliance. As a result, BJP benefited. In 2021, AIUDF claimed that some BJP candidates have asked them to support the ‘Grand Alliance’. Ajmal gave a statement in defence, ‘We fight in the interest of Muslims, there is no deal.’ This allegation is old but is raised again and again in Assam elections.

Question 5: Why are these allegations made and what is their basis?
answer: According to political experts, the main basis of these allegations is the unity of Muslim voters. Muslim votes were largely behind TMC in the 2021 Bengal elections. Now if a new party like AJUP or AIMIM distributes votes in Muslim dominated areas then BJP can benefit. Kabir’s alleged statement in the video is being considered as evidence of this conspiracy. Owaisi has also faced similar allegations in Bihar, Maharashtra, Assam etc. Ghulam Nabi Azad was accused of leaving Congress in Jammu and Kashmir politics and on the basis of some statements.

In Bengal elections, TMC says that BJP will benefit from the division of Muslim votes. After Humayun’s video, AIMIM will now fight alone. However, after the video scandal, vigilance has increased among Muslim voters. Voter list deletion cases are also going on in the Supreme Court, due to which this issue has become more heated.

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has released the second list of candidates for the Assam Assembly elections 2026 on Tuesday (March 17). Names of 12 candidates are included in the list. Earlier, on March 9, it was released by the party, in which candidates were fielded on 9 seats. The party has announced the names of its candidates for 21 assembly constituencies. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal will contest from Binnakandi seat. Voting in Assam will take place on 9 April and counting of votes will take place on 4 May 2026.

To whom did AIUDF give ticket?

In the second list of All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), three sitting MLAs Hafiz Bashir Ahmed (Goalpara East), Nazrul Haq (Dhubri) and Ashraful Hussain (Chenga) have been given tickets again. At the same time, former MLA Ajmal himself will contest elections from Binnakandi assembly constituency. Apart from this, other candidates include Majibur Rahman (Dalgaon), Abdul Aziz (Samaguri), Musukha Basumatari (Bijni), Mukut Das (Raha) and Anup Krishna Das Talukdar (Ramakrishna Nagar).

In the first list, its three sitting MLAs are Aminul Islam, Hafiz Rafiqul Islam and Nijanur Rehman, who won from Rupahihat, Mandia and Gauripur assembly seats.

AIUDF contesting elections alone

AIUDF is not part of any opposition alliance, although it had tried to join the Congress-led alliance. Ajmal had earlier said that the party would contest on 25-30 seats in the upcoming elections. Let us tell you that in Assam, voting will be held in a phase on April 9, while the results will be declared on May 4, 2026.

Assam | All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) announces second list of candidates for Assembly Election-2026. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal will contest from the Binnakandi seat.

Polls in Assam will be held on April 9, with counting of votes scheduled for May 4, 2026. pic.twitter.com/DQ1QJDUPIF

— ANI (@ANI) March 17, 2026

How many MLAs of which party?

In the outgoing assembly, the ruling BJP has 64 MLAs, while its ally AGP has nine MLAs, UPPL has seven and BPF has three. In the opposition, Congress has 26 members, AIUDF has 15 members and CPI(M) has one MLA, along with one independent MLA. Apart from Congress and CPI(M), the other members of the opposition alliance are Assam Jatiya Parishad, All Party Hill Leaders Conference and CPI (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation.

A big controversy has arisen in Assam politics regarding a video. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal has made serious allegations against Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. He said that for the last six months, hate statements are being made against a particular community. Ajmal demanded that the court should stop the Chief Minister from contesting the elections and he should be immediately arrested and sent to jail. He says that Sarma is not eligible to continue in his post.

On February 7, BJP Assam Pradesh had posted a video from its official X (formerly Twitter) handle. Point blank shot… was the caption accompanying the video. In the video, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is seen holding a gun in his hand. Pictures of two people are seen in front of him. One man is in a white vest and cap, while the other is seen sporting a long beard. In the video, Sarma takes aim and fires a fake bullet, which is shown hitting the photograph. Paijaan is written on one picture. A frame written Pakistan High Commission is also visible nearby. Another group photo is seen below, which is not clearly visible.

What message was given in the video?

After the firing, an AI generated cowboy form of the Chief Minister is shown. Jati, Mati and Bheti are written on it in Assamese language, which is their political slogan. Foreigner free Assam is also seen written in the video. Apart from this, why did you go to Pakistan? A similar question was also shown, which some people are associating with Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi. In the end it seems written that there will be no mercy on Bangladeshis.

Ajmal’s reaction

Badruddin Ajmal said that this kind of video can increase tension in the society. He called it an incitement against a community. At present, political rhetoric regarding this matter has intensified. Allegations and counter-allegations continue between BJP and AIUDF. This issue may become more heated in the coming days.