The results of West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 have surprised all the political pundits. BJP overturned the 15-year political history of the state by capturing 206 seats in the 294-seat assembly. But even greater charisma was shown by the party in what was considered to be Mamata Banerjee’s impenetrable fort, i.e. 115 Muslim-dominated seats of Bengal. In these seats where the population of Muslim voters is 30 percent or more, BJP captured 39 seats despite not having its traditional vote bank. How was this possible after all?

The first and most important reason is the fragmentation of TMC’s ‘unbiased’ Muslim vote bank.

Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) had monopolized the Muslim vote bank for the last one and a half decade. In 2021, TMC had won 43 out of 44 Muslim-dominated seats. But this time this vote bank of TMC got divided between Congress, Left and Humayun Kabir’s new party Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP).

Out of 43 seats in Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur districts, BJP got only 8 seats in 2021, which increased to 19 in 2026. The biggest reason for this reversal was the dispersion of Muslim votes, not their inclination towards BJP. For example, in Murshidabad’s Rani Nagar, the Congress won by 79,423 votes, while the BJP got an indirect advantage due to the vote split between TMC (76,722) and the Left (48,587).

Double game of ‘hot’ issues of Kaaba-Kali and Babri Masjid

BJP capitalized on the cultural identity of Bengal in its favor as part of its election strategy. After TMC MP Sayani Ghosh sang ‘Mere Dil Mein Hai Kaba’ in a video, BJP leaders made it a fight of ‘Kali vs Kaba’. Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath created the narrative that only Mother Kali and Durga reside in the soul of Bengal. On the other hand, BJP made a direct connection with Bengali identity by adopting the slogan of ‘Jai Maa Kali’ instead of ‘Jai Shri Ram’.

The Babri Masjid controversy created a rift in the Muslim vote bank. Suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir announced the construction of a second Babri Masjid in Rezinagar, Murshidabad and formed his party AJUP. BJP termed this issue as ‘appeasement politics’ and used it as a weapon to polarize Hindu voters. Home Minister Amit Shah clearly said that ‘Babri Masjid will not be allowed to be built in Bengal’.

Kabir’s party worked to cut off the Muslim vote bank of TMC. As a result, Kabir himself won Rejinagar and Nauda seats, giving a huge blow to TMC. BJP did not get Muslim votes, but their division became a major obstacle in the way of TMC’s victory.

The ‘secret’ effect of SIR and the game of 91 lakh voters

Before the elections, the Election Commission removed the names of about 91 lakh voters from the list under Special Intensive Revision (SIR), due to which the total voters reduced from 7.66 crore to 6.75 crore. Its biggest impact was in minority dominated districts like Murshidabad, Malda and North 24 Parganas. Experts believe that SIR forced Muslim voters to scatter among other parties instead of uniting and voting in favor of TMC.

‘Zero’ Muslim candidates, but victory flag everywhere

BJP had fielded 8 Muslim candidates in 2021, but not even one won. This time the party did not give ticket to even a single Muslim candidate and completely bet on polarization of Hindu voters. This bet proved correct. Where TMC was ahead in only 30 Muslim dominated seats and lagged in 12. BJP gave the message that ‘Votes come from development, not from any particular community.’

The formula for this historic victory of BJP is very clear. BJP won 45% of Muslim dominated seats because the Muslim vote got divided among three or four parties, while the Hindu vote united and stood in favor of BJP. While TMC’s vote share was 40.80%, BJP’s vote share was only 5% more (45.64%), but the difference in seats turned into a huge lead.