The exit polls that came after the voting for Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have created a tremendous stir in the politics of the state. This time the trend of results does not seem to be leaning towards any one side. While some surveys are giving a slight lead to the NDA, many agencies are telling the Grand Alliance (INDIA Bloc) to be near the threshold of power. Now the entire state is waiting for the results to come on 14th November.

The figures of news channels and survey agencies are very interesting this time. In some exit polls, the grand alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav seems to be reaching more than 130 seats, while the NDA is in the range of a little above 100. In other surveys, the contest is so close that both the alliances are seen almost equal on the majority line of 122 seats. Overall, according to the average data of four major survey agencies, the Grand Alliance is seen getting 120–130 seats, while the NDA is seen getting 110–120 seats.

TV live exit poll big relief for Tejashwi Yadav

The most talked about TV Live Exit Poll has given good news for the Grand Alliance this time. According to the survey, Grand Alliance may get 130 to 144 seats, while NDA is said to get between 95 to 109 seats. If this estimate proves correct then the return of Tejashwi Yadav to power in Bihar is considered almost certain.

Journo Mirror Survey: Public in mood for change

Journo Mirror Exit Poll figures also present almost the same picture. Here also the Grand Alliance looks strong on 130–140 seats, while the NDA is limited between 100–110 seats. This trend of two major agencies shows that the people of the state seem to be in a mood for change this time.

Opinion polls are evenly contested, suspense continues

Janmat exit poll has made the contest more interesting. In this survey, NDA has been shown between 113-125 seats and Grand Alliance between 111-123 seats. This situation shows that both the alliances are almost equal on the majority line of 122 seats. A small vote difference can completely change the direction of power.

News Pinch AI Survey Slight lead for NDA

News Pinch AI Politics Survey has made the election battle of Bihar more complicated. Here NDA is expected to get 121 seats and Grand Alliance is expected to get 119 seats. That means this is a photo-finish match, in which even minor changes can reverse the results.

Indication of repeat of situation like 2020

Political experts say that almost the same picture was seen in the year 2020 also. Even then the exit polls had given lead to the Grand Alliance, but in the final results NDA had formed the government with a very small margin. This time also the same suspense continues. Will history be repeated, or will change of power begin in Bihar?

Political activity intensifies before the results

Political turmoil has intensified in Patna, Darbhanga, Bhagalpur and Gaya. Strategic meetings are going on in the alliance offices and the candidates are in touch with supporters in their respective areas. Before the counting of votes, every party is claiming victory, but the real picture will become clear only on November 14.

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Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are to be held at the end of this year and the results will decide which party will occupy the state’s power next five years. Two big surveys Lok Pol and S India have presented interesting results in heating up the electoral atmosphere. Both the survey shows a thorn competition between the NDA and the Grand Alliance, while Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj also seems to be successful in making its place among the voters.

According to the Lok Pol survey, the Grand Alliance can get 118 to 126 seats, while the NDA is estimated to get 105 to 114 seats. Other parties are expected to get 2 to 5 seats. 122 seats are necessary for the majority, and in this context, the grand alliance seems to be approaching the majority. In terms of vote share, the grand alliance is also seen at 39–42% and NDA 38–41%. Although the difference is low, the grand alliance may get an edge in the mathematics of seats.

Impact of Muslim voters on Purnia seats

The S India Survey has presented the area -wise picture. The grand alliance may get an edge due to the influence of Muslim voters in 24 seats of Purnia, while the NDA is expected to hold the hold. NDA can perform better than last time on 26 seats of Magadha, while the grand alliance may lag behind. The NDA is seen in a strong position in 22 seats in Bhojpur. Both major coalitions can benefit in 12 seats of Bhagalpur, but the impact of Jan Suraj is also gradually emerging.

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party can prove to be a new factor in this election. Although the number of seats may be limited, the increase in vote share can affect the strategy of large parties. Overall, the Lok Pol survey shows the grand alliance further, while the S India survey tells the position of NDA better in some areas. It is clear that this time the election will be very hard and thorn. Every seat is important in the politics of Bihar and the performance of small parties can also affect the results.

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