After the announcement of the dates of Bihar Assembly elections 2025, the stir in the politics of the state has intensified. With the release of C-Voter survey, a new twist has come in the political equations. In this survey, the public was asked which alliance is getting the lead, who is most popular as the Chief Minister and whether the effect of Rahul Gandhi’s visit is visible.

According to C-Voter survey, NDA (BJP + JDU) is getting 40.2% support, while the Grand Alliance (RJD + Congress) is expected to get 38.3% votes. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has got the support of 13.3% people, while 8.2% people have no clear opinion. There is a difference of only two percent between NDA and Grand Alliance. In such a situation, 13 percent vote share of Jan Suraj Party can become a big factor. If Prashant Kishor’s party is successful in winning some seats, then it can play the role of ‘kingmaker’ in the elections.

Impact of Rahul Gandhi’s visit

According to the survey, 51 percent people of Bihar believe that the Grand Alliance will benefit from Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’. Whereas 32.8 percent say that this yatra will not have any impact. The remaining 16.2 percent did not give a clear opinion. This figure shows that Rahul Gandhi’s visit has helped in creating an atmosphere in favor of Tejashwi Yadav. This has increased enthusiasm among the supporters of the Grand Alliance.

Public choice for the post of Chief Minister

According to C-Voter survey, Tejashwi Yadav still remains the first choice of the public. In the data of October 2025, he got 36.2 percent support. His support was 34.9 percent in June and 40.6 percent in February. The popularity of JDU leader Nitish Kumar is continuously declining. This time he has got 15.9 percent support. Whereas Prashant Kishore is emerging rapidly and has now become the choice of 23.2 percent people. Chirag Paswan has got 8.8 percent support and BJP’s Samrat Chaudhary has got 7.8 percent support.

Jan Suraj Party’s growing momentum

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has got 13 percent support, which is a huge figure for a new party. He has so far released the list of 51 candidates and said that his party will contest elections on 243 seats. Prashant Kishor’s popularity is continuously increasing among the youth and first-time voters. This trend shows that the third front is emerging strongly in Bihar.

SIR controversy and political impact

Public opinion is divided regarding SIR (Special Voter Revision). About 46 percent people believe that this process will directly benefit the NDA, while 21.7 percent said that the Grand Alliance can benefit from it. The opposition has alleged that in this process, about 65 lakh names were removed and only 21 thousand new ones were added. A large section of the public is considering this as administrative bias, due to which there is a possibility of loss to the opposition.

Bihar elections 2025 divided into three fronts

Now the contest in Bihar is no longer just between NDA and Grand Alliance. The rise of Jan Suraj has made it triangular. Tejashwi Yadav is maintaining his popularity, Nitish Kumar’s graph is falling and Prashant Kishor is emerging as a new political force. If the current trend continues till the elections, then a three-front contest in Bihar can be considered certain. In this situation, Jan Suraj Party can prove to be the ‘kingmaker’.

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Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are to be held at the end of this year and the results will decide which party will occupy the state’s power next five years. Two big surveys Lok Pol and S India have presented interesting results in heating up the electoral atmosphere. Both the survey shows a thorn competition between the NDA and the Grand Alliance, while Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj also seems to be successful in making its place among the voters.

According to the Lok Pol survey, the Grand Alliance can get 118 to 126 seats, while the NDA is estimated to get 105 to 114 seats. Other parties are expected to get 2 to 5 seats. 122 seats are necessary for the majority, and in this context, the grand alliance seems to be approaching the majority. In terms of vote share, the grand alliance is also seen at 39–42% and NDA 38–41%. Although the difference is low, the grand alliance may get an edge in the mathematics of seats.

Impact of Muslim voters on Purnia seats

The S India Survey has presented the area -wise picture. The grand alliance may get an edge due to the influence of Muslim voters in 24 seats of Purnia, while the NDA is expected to hold the hold. NDA can perform better than last time on 26 seats of Magadha, while the grand alliance may lag behind. The NDA is seen in a strong position in 22 seats in Bhojpur. Both major coalitions can benefit in 12 seats of Bhagalpur, but the impact of Jan Suraj is also gradually emerging.

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party can prove to be a new factor in this election. Although the number of seats may be limited, the increase in vote share can affect the strategy of large parties. Overall, the Lok Pol survey shows the grand alliance further, while the S India survey tells the position of NDA better in some areas. It is clear that this time the election will be very hard and thorn. Every seat is important in the politics of Bihar and the performance of small parties can also affect the results.

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Bihar is expected to hold assembly elections in October-November, although the dates of elections have not been announced yet. As soon as the elections approached, the political stir is at its peak. Political parties have intensified their strategy amidst the controversy over the name cutting from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and the voter list. During this time, the C-Voter has released the latest survey, which shows which leader’s popularity is increasing among the public and who is left behind. According to the survey, this election can prove to be a big opportunity for the NDA vs India alliance as well as an independent face Prashant Kishore.

This time the election has been made interesting by the voter list controversy and SIR. Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav are also interacting continuously among the public through voters rights yatra. In such a situation, it is very important to know who the public wants to see as CM. Regarding this, C-Voter conducted three separate surveys in February, June and August 2025. Come, let’s see what the opinion of the public says.

C-Voter Survey Nitish Kumar and NDA’s faces
Nitish Kumar has been a big face of Bihar politics for a long time, but the C-Voter survey shows that his popularity is steadily declining. In February, 18% of people were liking him as CM Face. The figure remained at 18% in June, but by August it decreased to 15%. The second face of NDA is Chirag Paswan and Emperor Chaudhary. Chirag Paswan was at 4% in February, suddenly reached 11% in June, but has come to 10% in August. Samrat Chaudhary was 8% in February, 7% in June and 10% in August. This means that no major face in NDA has been able to replace Nitish Kumar at the moment.

Tejashwi Yadav public’s first choice?
Tejashwi Yadav is considered to be the biggest contender from India alliance. He has been at number one in all three stages of the survey. 41% in February, 37% in June and 31% in August. In this way, his popularity is seen to decline, but despite this, he is overshadowing Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Samrat Chaudhary. These figures show that the public’s inclination is still towards Tejashwi Yadav, even if the graph has come down a bit.

Will Prashant Kishore become kingmaker or player?
The most interesting face is that of Prashant Kishore. He got 15 percent of the votes in February, this figure increased to 16 in June and reached 22 with an increase of 6 percent in August. That is, his popularity is continuously increasing. If this speed is maintained then they can become a big challenge by November. Since they are not associated with any alliance, the question is arising whether they will be a kingmaker or try to become a king themselves.

Election Commission and Rahul Gandhi dispute
In this electoral atmosphere, Rahul Gandhi has also questioned the name of the voter list and the fairness of the Election Commission. In a survey, 59% of the people admitted that Rahul Gandhi’s allegations have power. At the same time, 67% of the people said that the Election Commission should answer Rahul Gandhi’s questions. This issue can directly affect voters and change the electoral equation.

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