Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are to be held at the end of this year and the results will decide which party will occupy the state’s power next five years. Two big surveys Lok Pol and S India have presented interesting results in heating up the electoral atmosphere. Both the survey shows a thorn competition between the NDA and the Grand Alliance, while Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj also seems to be successful in making its place among the voters.

According to the Lok Pol survey, the Grand Alliance can get 118 to 126 seats, while the NDA is estimated to get 105 to 114 seats. Other parties are expected to get 2 to 5 seats. 122 seats are necessary for the majority, and in this context, the grand alliance seems to be approaching the majority. In terms of vote share, the grand alliance is also seen at 39–42% and NDA 38–41%. Although the difference is low, the grand alliance may get an edge in the mathematics of seats.

Impact of Muslim voters on Purnia seats

The S India Survey has presented the area -wise picture. The grand alliance may get an edge due to the influence of Muslim voters in 24 seats of Purnia, while the NDA is expected to hold the hold. NDA can perform better than last time on 26 seats of Magadha, while the grand alliance may lag behind. The NDA is seen in a strong position in 22 seats in Bhojpur. Both major coalitions can benefit in 12 seats of Bhagalpur, but the impact of Jan Suraj is also gradually emerging.

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party can prove to be a new factor in this election. Although the number of seats may be limited, the increase in vote share can affect the strategy of large parties. Overall, the Lok Pol survey shows the grand alliance further, while the S India survey tells the position of NDA better in some areas. It is clear that this time the election will be very hard and thorn. Every seat is important in the politics of Bihar and the performance of small parties can also affect the results.

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Bihar election dates will be announced soon. Earlier, all the parties have started preparing. The Bharatiya Janata Party has appointed Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan in charge. Meanwhile, three experts of survey companies expressed their opinion about Bihar elections. He told that whose pan is heavy in the election. The electoral analysis was signed by Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of Cewotor Foundation, Founder Partner of Votwibi and Pradeep Gupta, Chairman of Axis My India.

Talking at the India Today Conclave, Yashwant Deshmukh said, “The Muslim-Yadav equation in Uttar Pradesh is the same as RJD is in Bihar, but Akhilesh Yadav used PDA Plus and he was successful. It has to be seen how much this use in Bihar can do this experiment. Why could no Bihar win without Nitish Kumar, Because they have their own vote bank. ‘

Tejashwi and Prashant Kishore are divided into young voters – Amitabh Tiwari

Amitabh Tiwari said, ,This tricky is the state. Here many small parties also run by making their vote banks. There are not only three big parties, the election dates have not been announced yet. In the last three elections, the same caste candidates have won 105 seats., He said, “Leaving the young NDA, Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishore are seen dividing. By making Pacific education an issue, you can gain an edge among young voters against Tejashwi.

What did Pradeep Gupta say on Bihar elections

Pradeep Gupta said about the Bihar election, “Estimating the election result simply means who will form the government. There is still a time that even the voters of Bihar do not know who they have to vote. We had estimated the NDA’s victory in 2024. ”He said on the question of caste and women’s factor, ,Caste is very relevant here. In all six regions of Bihar, Muslim-Yadavs are around 27 percent. This vote bank has been united in favor of RJD.,

He said about the factor of Prashant Kishore, ,They are entering the election for the first time. Talking about youth and women’s factor, they are also part of any caste.,

Bihar is expected to hold assembly elections in October-November, although the dates of elections have not been announced yet. As soon as the elections approached, the political stir is at its peak. Political parties have intensified their strategy amidst the controversy over the name cutting from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and the voter list. During this time, the C-Voter has released the latest survey, which shows which leader’s popularity is increasing among the public and who is left behind. According to the survey, this election can prove to be a big opportunity for the NDA vs India alliance as well as an independent face Prashant Kishore.

This time the election has been made interesting by the voter list controversy and SIR. Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav are also interacting continuously among the public through voters rights yatra. In such a situation, it is very important to know who the public wants to see as CM. Regarding this, C-Voter conducted three separate surveys in February, June and August 2025. Come, let’s see what the opinion of the public says.

C-Voter Survey Nitish Kumar and NDA’s faces
Nitish Kumar has been a big face of Bihar politics for a long time, but the C-Voter survey shows that his popularity is steadily declining. In February, 18% of people were liking him as CM Face. The figure remained at 18% in June, but by August it decreased to 15%. The second face of NDA is Chirag Paswan and Emperor Chaudhary. Chirag Paswan was at 4% in February, suddenly reached 11% in June, but has come to 10% in August. Samrat Chaudhary was 8% in February, 7% in June and 10% in August. This means that no major face in NDA has been able to replace Nitish Kumar at the moment.

Tejashwi Yadav public’s first choice?
Tejashwi Yadav is considered to be the biggest contender from India alliance. He has been at number one in all three stages of the survey. 41% in February, 37% in June and 31% in August. In this way, his popularity is seen to decline, but despite this, he is overshadowing Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Samrat Chaudhary. These figures show that the public’s inclination is still towards Tejashwi Yadav, even if the graph has come down a bit.

Will Prashant Kishore become kingmaker or player?
The most interesting face is that of Prashant Kishore. He got 15 percent of the votes in February, this figure increased to 16 in June and reached 22 with an increase of 6 percent in August. That is, his popularity is continuously increasing. If this speed is maintained then they can become a big challenge by November. Since they are not associated with any alliance, the question is arising whether they will be a kingmaker or try to become a king themselves.

Election Commission and Rahul Gandhi dispute
In this electoral atmosphere, Rahul Gandhi has also questioned the name of the voter list and the fairness of the Election Commission. In a survey, 59% of the people admitted that Rahul Gandhi’s allegations have power. At the same time, 67% of the people said that the Election Commission should answer Rahul Gandhi’s questions. This issue can directly affect voters and change the electoral equation.

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