The political equation is becoming very interesting in all the exit polls and surveys released before Bihar Assembly elections 2025. While most of the surveys are showing the NDA’s lead, a survey has also emerged which has increased the political stir. Journo Mirror’s survey has shown the Grand Alliance (MGB) getting a clear majority.

Journo Mirror changed the equation

According to Journo Mirror, the Grand Alliance may get 130 to 140 seats this time, while the NDA is said to be limited to only 100 to 110 seats. This estimate is completely opposite to all other surveys. It has been claimed in this survey that this time the public is in the mood for change and a new equation can be formed in the state.

NDA ahead in remaining surveys

However, other major survey agencies like P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, DV Research, Matriz IANS, Chanakya, Poll Diary and Praja Poll Analytics have shown the NDA close to or above the majority. Among these, NDA has got an estimate of 130 to 209 seats, while the Grand Alliance is said to be limited to between 32 to 108 seats.

Source	NDA	MGB (Grand Alliance)	OTH (other)
Matriz IANS	147–167	70–90	2–6
Chanakya	130–138	100–108	3–5
Poll Diary	184–209	32–49	1–5
Praja Poll Analytics	186	50	7
Polestrat	133–148	87–102	3–5
TIF Research	145–163	76–95	0–1
JVC	135–150	88–103	3–6
People’s Insight	133–148	87–102	3–6
People’s Pulse	133–159	75–101	2–13
P-Marq	142–162	80–98	1–7
DV Research	137–152	83–98	3–12
Journal Mirror	100–110	130–140	3–7
Poll of Polls (Average)	131–157	80–93	3–6

Which party got how many seats in 2020?

Last time in Bihar assembly elections i.e. in 2020, the NDA alliance had won and formed the government. At that time NDA had got a total of 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance had got success on 110 seats.

If we look at the figures of the last elections, in the NDA alliance, BJP got 74 seats, JDU got 43 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got 4 seats and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) also got 4 seats.

On the other hand, RJD had emerged as the largest party from the Grand Alliance by winning 75 seats. Congress got 19 seats, CPI (ML) got 12 seats, while AIMIM and other parties got 5 seats.

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Voting for the second phase of assembly elections has been completed in Bihar. Now waiting for the results, which will come on 14th November. Many opinion polls have come out before the voting results. From the poll data it appears that the contest is directly between the NDA and the Grand Alliance. According to the exit poll of Matriz-IANS, this time in the elections NDA is expected to get 147 to 167 seats, Grand Alliance is expected to get 70 to 90 seats, while others are expected to get 2 to 6 seats.

How many seats are expected for BJP and RJD?
In the opinion poll of Matriz-IANS, BJP has been given 65-73 seats, JDU has been given 67-75 seats, LJP (R) has been given 7-0 seats, HAM has been given 4-5 seats and RLM has been given 1-2 seats. At the same time, in the Grand Alliance, RJD has been given 53-58 seats, Congress 10-12 seats, VIP 1-4 seats and Left parties have been given 9-14 seats.

AIMIM performance estimates
According to survey agency Matrice, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM is expected to get 2–3 seats this time, while the estimated vote share of the party is said to be 1%.

How many seats did AIMIM contest elections on?
Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has fielded candidates on a total of 25 seats in the Bihar assembly elections this time. Of these, 15 seats are from Seemanchal region, which is considered a strong stronghold of the party.

How was the performance of AIMIM in 2020?
In the 2020 elections, AIMIM contested 20 seats and won 5 seats. The party got 1.3% vote share in that election. Although the losing AIMIM candidate could not come second on any seat, he did finish third on four seats.

Disclaimer- With the second phase of elections, voting has taken place on all 243 seats in Bihar. The country is waiting to know whose government is going to be formed in Bihar. The wait is nearing its end. Different survey agencies have conducted exit polls of Bihar. abp news is a responsible channel of the country. We understand our responsibility. Therefore, following the guidelines of the Election Commission, we will not show the first numbers of the exit poll before 6.30 pm. Let us tell the audience that ABP News has not conducted any survey of its own.

Voting will be held on 121 seats under the first phase for Bihar Assembly elections on Thursday (6 November 2025). In many opinion polls conducted before voting, NDA is expected to get a clear majority. NDA government also seems to be formed in POLL OF POLLS. In this, NDA is estimated to get 143 seats, Grand Alliance to get 95 seats and others to get 5 seats.

IANS-Materize opinion poll

According to the IANS-Materize survey, NDA will once again come to power in Bihar. According to the survey, out of 243 seats in the state, NDA is expected to get 153-164 seats and Grand Alliance is expected to get 76-87 seats. In this, BJP seems to be getting maximum 83-87 seats. JDU may get 61-65 seats, HAM may get 4-5 seats, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) may get 4-5 seats and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha Party may get 1-2 seats.

Talking about the Grand Alliance, in the survey RJD is seen getting maximum 62-66 seats, Congress 7-9, CPM (ML) 6-8, CPI 0-1, CPM (Marxist) 0-1 and VIP 1-2. If we look at other parties, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM is expected to get 1-2 seats, while Prashant Kishore’s Jansuraj Party is expected to get 1-3 seats.

Who is winning in the Pollstrat opinion poll?

According to Pollstrat’s opinion poll, NDA may get 133 to 143 seats in Bihar. In this survey, BJP has been given 70 to 72 seats, while the grand alliance of opposition parties has been given 93-102 seats. According to the data, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party can also open its account in Bihar, which is likely to get one to three seats.

In the opinion poll, JDU, among the constituent parties of NDA, is expected to get 53-56 seats, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 10-12 and HAM 0-2 seats. In the survey, RJD included in the grand alliance has been given 69-72 seats, Congress 10-13 seats, VIP 1-2 seats and Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) 0-1 seat.

NDA gets majority in Chanakya Strategy Survey

According to the survey of CHANAKYA STRATEGIES, NDA is expected to get more than 130 seats and Grand Alliance is expected to get less than 110 seats, while others may get 5 to 9 seats.

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The Election Commission announced the dates of Bihar assembly elections on Monday. During the first phase, voting will be held on 121 seats on November 6 and 122 seats on November 11 in the second phase. The result of this election will be declared on 14 November. Matrize -ians have done opinion polls for the Bihar assembly elections, in which the NDA is clearly getting a majority.

According to the opinion poll by Matrize -ians, NDA can get 150-160 seats in this election. At the same time, 70-80 seats of the Grand Alliance and others can get 9-12 seats. According to the survey, 49 percent of the NDA’s 49 percent, the grand alliance can get 36 percent and others can get 15 percent votes.

How satisfied people are with CM Nitish’s functioning?

Very Satisfied	42 percent
Satisfied	31 percent
Disgusted	23 percent
Can’t say	04 percent

Bihar’s biggest election issue?

Unemployment	24 percent
Corruption	10 percent
PM Modi’s face	9 percent
Education	8 percent
other issue	49 percent

Who is the first choice for the post of Chief Minister?

Nitish Kumar	42 percent
Tejashwi Yadav	15 percent
Prashant Kishore	9 percent
Chirag Paswan	8 percent
Emperor Chaudhary	3 percent
Other	23 percent

How much effect the popularity of PM Modi?

Great effect	57 percent
Slight effect	8 percent
no bearing	21 percent
Can’t say	14 percent

People’s opinion on SIR in Bihar

Good step for election commission	54 percent
Sir required	17 percent
Electoral benefits	13 percent
Can’t say	16 percent

Bihar’s first opinion poll

Party	2025 opinion poll	2020 election results
NDA	150-160 seats	125 seats
Grand alliance	70-85 seats	110 seats
Other	9-12 seats	8 seats

Which party has seats in opinion poll

NDA	Grand alliance
BJP- 80-85 seats	RJD- 60-65 seats
JDU- 60-65 seats	Congress- 7-10 seats
Ham- 3-6 seats	CPI-ML-6-9 seats
LJP (R)- 4-6 seats	CPI- 0-1 seat
RLM- 1-2 seats	CPIM-0-1 seat
	VIP- 2-4 seats

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Dates have been announced for the assembly elections 2025 in Bihar. Votes will be cast on November 6 and 11 in two phases and results will come on 14 November. Political temperature is increasing with the announcement of election dates. The first opinion poll conducted by Matrize -ians has presented an initial idea of ​​this election picture. Who can benefit in this 243 -seat assembly election and which political parties are ahead, this survey has revealed this survey.

Seat equation: NDA ahead, grand alliance behind
According to the opinion poll, the NDA can get 150–160 seats in 2025, while the Grand Alliance can be reduced to 70-85 seats. Other parties and independents are likely to get 9-12 seats. Last time in 2020, NDA got 125 seats and Grand Alliance got 110 seats.

NDA edge
NDA is also visible in terms of vote share. In this survey, NDA is estimated to get 49% votes, the grand alliance may get 36% and other parties can get 15% votes. According to 2020 data, NDA got 37.26%, the grand alliance got 37.23% and others got 25.51% votes.

People satisfied with CM Nitish’s functioning?
It was also seen in the survey that 42% of the people are very satisfied with the functioning of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, while 31% people were said to be satisfied and 23% dissatisfied. Only 4% of people could not answer this question.

What is Bihar’s biggest election issue?
According to voters, unemployment (24%) is the biggest issue of elections this time. Apart from this, corruption is 10%, Prime Minister Modi’s face 9%, education 8% and other issues are in priority for 49% voters.

Who is the first choice of Chief Minister’s post?
The first choice of voters for the post of Chief Minister was Nitish Kumar (42%). Tejashwi Yadav got 15% votes, Prashant Kishore got 9%, Chirag Paswan 8% and Emperor Chaudhary got 3% votes. The remaining 23% of the voters are giving priority to another.

Impact of PM Modi’s popularity
The survey also revealed that 57% of the people believe that PM Modi’s popularity is being affected a lot. Only 8% stated a little impact and 21% said that there is no effect. 14% of the voters could not answer this question.

Voters’ opinion on sir
Voters’ opinion on the issue of SIR in Bihar also appeared in the survey. 54% people consider it a good step of EC. Only 17% of people believe that SIR was necessary, while 13% say it was applied only for electoral benefits. 16% of the voters could not answer this question.

NDA benefits, challenges Grand Alliance?
Statistics of this survey show that NDA is in the lead this time and the grand alliance may lag behind in terms of seats. At the same time, Nitish Kumar’s popularity and PM Modi’s image is working in favor of NDA. In view of the election equation and the priorities of the voter, there can be a tough competition in the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar.

Disclaimer: Matrize -ians have conducted an opinion poll for the Bihar assembly elections. This opinion poll has been prepared on the basis of interaction with the people of Bihar. For this, 46 thousand 862 people were talked to all 243 seats in Bihar. This survey was conducted between 18 September to 5 October. The margin of error plus minus in the results of the opinion poll is 3 percent. This opinion poll has not been done by ABP News.

Matrize -ians Bihar Opinion Poll: The dates of Bihar assembly elections have been announced. Matrize -ians have done opinion poll about this. According to this survey, the NDA’s pan in Bihar is looking heavy. People are seen sealing the works of CM Nitish Kumar.

According to the opinion poll of Matrize -ians, NDA can get 150-160 seats in Bihar Assembly Elections 2025. At the same time, 70-80 seats of the Grand Alliance and others can get 9-12 seats. According to the survey, 49 percent of the NDA’s 49 percent, the grand alliance can get 36 percent and others can get 15 percent votes.

How many seats in NDA and Grand Alliance: Survey

BJP can emerge as the largest party in NDA. According to the survey, BJP may get 80-85, JDU 60-65, Ham (HAM) 3-6 seats, LJP (R) 406 seats, RLM 1-2 seats. In the Grand Alliance, RJD is expected to get 60-65 seats, Congress 7-10 seats, CPI-ML 6-9 seats, CPI 0-1 seats, CPIM 0-1 seats, VIP 2-4 seats.

Bihar assembly election dates announced

For the Bihar assembly elections, voting will be held in two phases on November 6 and November 11 and the counting of votes will be 14 November. Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar announced the election schedule on Monday. Gyanesh Kumar said that in the first phase, voting will be held for 121 seats in the first phase and 122 seats in the second phase. Bihar has a total of 243 seats in Bihar. The Chief Election Commissioner also informed that the notification for the election will be released on October 10, the last date for filing nomination papers will be on October 17, nomination papers will be examined on October 18 and nomination papers can be withdrawn by 20 October.

He said that the notification for the second phase will be issued on October 13, the last date for filing nomination papers will be on October 20, nomination papers will be examined on 21 October and the names will be withdrawn by 23 October.

Disclaimer: Matrize -ians have conducted an opinion poll for the Bihar assembly elections. These opinion people have been prepared on the basis of interaction with the people of Bihar. For this, 46 thousand 862 people have been talked to all 243 seats of Bihar. This survey has been conducted between September 18 and 5 October. The margin of error plan minus in the results of the opinion poll is 3 percent. This opinion poll has not been done by ABP News.