The political equation is becoming very interesting in all the exit polls and surveys released before Bihar Assembly elections 2025. While most of the surveys are showing the NDA’s lead, a survey has also emerged which has increased the political stir. Journo Mirror’s survey has shown the Grand Alliance (MGB) getting a clear majority.

Journo Mirror changed the equation

According to Journo Mirror, the Grand Alliance may get 130 to 140 seats this time, while the NDA is said to be limited to only 100 to 110 seats. This estimate is completely opposite to all other surveys. It has been claimed in this survey that this time the public is in the mood for change and a new equation can be formed in the state.

NDA ahead in remaining surveys

However, other major survey agencies like P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, DV Research, Matriz IANS, Chanakya, Poll Diary and Praja Poll Analytics have shown the NDA close to or above the majority. Among these, NDA has got an estimate of 130 to 209 seats, while the Grand Alliance is said to be limited to between 32 to 108 seats.

Source	NDA	MGB (Grand Alliance)	OTH (other)
Matriz IANS	147–167	70–90	2–6
Chanakya	130–138	100–108	3–5
Poll Diary	184–209	32–49	1–5
Praja Poll Analytics	186	50	7
Polestrat	133–148	87–102	3–5
TIF Research	145–163	76–95	0–1
JVC	135–150	88–103	3–6
People’s Insight	133–148	87–102	3–6
People’s Pulse	133–159	75–101	2–13
P-Marq	142–162	80–98	1–7
DV Research	137–152	83–98	3–12
Journal Mirror	100–110	130–140	3–7
Poll of Polls (Average)	131–157	80–93	3–6

Which party got how many seats in 2020?

Last time in Bihar assembly elections i.e. in 2020, the NDA alliance had won and formed the government. At that time NDA had got a total of 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance had got success on 110 seats.

If we look at the figures of the last elections, in the NDA alliance, BJP got 74 seats, JDU got 43 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got 4 seats and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) also got 4 seats.

On the other hand, RJD had emerged as the largest party from the Grand Alliance by winning 75 seats. Congress got 19 seats, CPI (ML) got 12 seats, while AIMIM and other parties got 5 seats.

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Poll of Polls: Nitish Kumar is in Bihar…! NDA’s success in exit polls, hopes of grand alliance also remain intact

Bihar is expected to hold assembly elections in October-November, although the dates of elections have not been announced yet. As soon as the elections approached, the political stir is at its peak. Political parties have intensified their strategy amidst the controversy over the name cutting from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and the voter list. During this time, the C-Voter has released the latest survey, which shows which leader’s popularity is increasing among the public and who is left behind. According to the survey, this election can prove to be a big opportunity for the NDA vs India alliance as well as an independent face Prashant Kishore.

This time the election has been made interesting by the voter list controversy and SIR. Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav are also interacting continuously among the public through voters rights yatra. In such a situation, it is very important to know who the public wants to see as CM. Regarding this, C-Voter conducted three separate surveys in February, June and August 2025. Come, let’s see what the opinion of the public says.

C-Voter Survey Nitish Kumar and NDA’s faces
Nitish Kumar has been a big face of Bihar politics for a long time, but the C-Voter survey shows that his popularity is steadily declining. In February, 18% of people were liking him as CM Face. The figure remained at 18% in June, but by August it decreased to 15%. The second face of NDA is Chirag Paswan and Emperor Chaudhary. Chirag Paswan was at 4% in February, suddenly reached 11% in June, but has come to 10% in August. Samrat Chaudhary was 8% in February, 7% in June and 10% in August. This means that no major face in NDA has been able to replace Nitish Kumar at the moment.

Tejashwi Yadav public’s first choice?
Tejashwi Yadav is considered to be the biggest contender from India alliance. He has been at number one in all three stages of the survey. 41% in February, 37% in June and 31% in August. In this way, his popularity is seen to decline, but despite this, he is overshadowing Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Samrat Chaudhary. These figures show that the public’s inclination is still towards Tejashwi Yadav, even if the graph has come down a bit.

Will Prashant Kishore become kingmaker or player?
The most interesting face is that of Prashant Kishore. He got 15 percent of the votes in February, this figure increased to 16 in June and reached 22 with an increase of 6 percent in August. That is, his popularity is continuously increasing. If this speed is maintained then they can become a big challenge by November. Since they are not associated with any alliance, the question is arising whether they will be a kingmaker or try to become a king themselves.

Election Commission and Rahul Gandhi dispute
In this electoral atmosphere, Rahul Gandhi has also questioned the name of the voter list and the fairness of the Election Commission. In a survey, 59% of the people admitted that Rahul Gandhi’s allegations have power. At the same time, 67% of the people said that the Election Commission should answer Rahul Gandhi’s questions. This issue can directly affect voters and change the electoral equation.

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