The initial surveys that came after the end of voting for Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have created a stir in the politics of the entire state. According to the Vote Vibe survey, this time the contest is considered to be very close. The race for power between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to be a tie. At the same time, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has also left its impact on a limited level, which has made the contest more interesting.

According to the latest data of Vote Vibe Exit Poll 2025, Tejashwi Yadav has been most liked for the post of Chief Minister. Although his lead is not much. According to the survey, Tejashwi Yadav was liked by about 35 percent people, while Nitish Kumar got the support of about 33 percent voters. Jan Suraj chief Prashant Kishore has become the choice of voters at around 9 percent. It is clear from this that the people of Bihar are still divided between Nitish and Tejashwi and the final result can go in any direction.

Women assured NDA of lead

This time women voters have once again expressed confidence in Nitish Kumar. The financial assistance given under Jeevika scheme has strengthened NDA’s hold among women. It is believed that women in rural areas voted for NDA in large numbers, which has given an additional edge to the alliance. This is the same factor that gave NDA the lead in the 2020 elections also.

Youth are inclined towards grand alliance

Young voters seem to be slightly inclined in favor of the Grand Alliance this time. Tejashwi Yadav focused on issues like employment, government jobs and migration throughout the election campaign. This is the reason why a large number of youth voted in the name of change. The popularity of the Grand Alliance can be clearly seen among the youth in urban areas like Patna, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur and Gaya.

NDA has slight lead, but result uncertain

According to the total vote percentage, NDA is said to be ahead by a slight margin. According to the survey, NDA is expected to get around 45 percent votes, while the Grand Alliance is expected to get around 42 percent votes. Jan Suraj Party seems to be getting around 5 percent votes. This small difference can completely change the results. Political analysts believe that if this trend continues then Nitish Kumar’s return is possible, but the final decision will be taken only on the day of counting.

Jan Suraj becomes the third force

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has registered its presence in the politics of Bihar for the first time. Although this party is not seen in the race for power, but it has made the contest triangular on many seats. Experts believe that even if Jan Suraj’s limited vote share is reduced by more than one party, it can have a big impact on the results.

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Everyone is waiting for the results of Bihar assembly elections. Counting of votes will begin on November 14. Before this, exit polls regarding the elections have also come out. Even though the exit poll of Axis My India has predicted full majority for NDA, this time Nitish Kumar has emerged as the King Mayor. According to the figures, whoever he is with will form the government in Bihar.

Even though the exit poll of Axis My India has predicted full majority for NDA, but Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD is emerging as the largest party, Nitish Kumar’s JDU may remain at the second position while BJP seems to be getting a setback in this election. BJP may remain the third party this time. In such a situation, the role of JDU has become important in forming the government.

JDU’s role important in Axis India My Exit Poll

In the exit poll, NDA may get 121 to 141 seats out of total 243 seats in Bihar. In which BJP is expected to get 50-56 seats whereas in the last election BJP had won 74 seats. At the same time, JDU is expected to get 56-62 seats, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party 11-16 seats, Hindustan Awam Morcha 2-3 seats and Upendra Kushwaha’s party is expected to get 2-4 seats.
At the same time, the Grand Alliance is estimated to get 98-118 seats. But RJD can emerge as the largest party. In the exit poll, RJD is predicted to get 67-76 seats. Indian National Congress may get 17-21 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party may get 3-5 seats, Left parties may get 10-14 seats and India Inclusive Party may get 0-1 seat.

Where Nitish Kumar is, there is government

If we look at these figures, this time the role of Nitish Kumar became important. Wherever Nitish Kumar goes, his government can be formed in Bihar. Nitish Kumar is in alliance with NDA, according to statistics NDA government is being formed. But if he leaves NDA and joins Tejashwi Yadav, then a grand alliance government can easily be formed by combining 67-76 seats of RJD and 56-62 seats of JDU.