The exit polls that came after the voting for Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have created a tremendous stir in the politics of the state. This time the trend of results does not seem to be leaning towards any one side. While some surveys are giving a slight lead to the NDA, many agencies are telling the Grand Alliance (INDIA Bloc) to be near the threshold of power. Now the entire state is waiting for the results to come on 14th November.

The figures of news channels and survey agencies are very interesting this time. In some exit polls, the grand alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav seems to be reaching more than 130 seats, while the NDA is in the range of a little above 100. In other surveys, the contest is so close that both the alliances are seen almost equal on the majority line of 122 seats. Overall, according to the average data of four major survey agencies, the Grand Alliance is seen getting 120–130 seats, while the NDA is seen getting 110–120 seats.

TV live exit poll big relief for Tejashwi Yadav

The most talked about TV Live Exit Poll has given good news for the Grand Alliance this time. According to the survey, Grand Alliance may get 130 to 144 seats, while NDA is said to get between 95 to 109 seats. If this estimate proves correct then the return of Tejashwi Yadav to power in Bihar is considered almost certain.

Journo Mirror Survey: Public in mood for change

Journo Mirror Exit Poll figures also present almost the same picture. Here also the Grand Alliance looks strong on 130–140 seats, while the NDA is limited between 100–110 seats. This trend of two major agencies shows that the people of the state seem to be in a mood for change this time.

Opinion polls are evenly contested, suspense continues

Janmat exit poll has made the contest more interesting. In this survey, NDA has been shown between 113-125 seats and Grand Alliance between 111-123 seats. This situation shows that both the alliances are almost equal on the majority line of 122 seats. A small vote difference can completely change the direction of power.

News Pinch AI Survey Slight lead for NDA

News Pinch AI Politics Survey has made the election battle of Bihar more complicated. Here NDA is expected to get 121 seats and Grand Alliance is expected to get 119 seats. That means this is a photo-finish match, in which even minor changes can reverse the results.

Indication of repeat of situation like 2020

Political experts say that almost the same picture was seen in the year 2020 also. Even then the exit polls had given lead to the Grand Alliance, but in the final results NDA had formed the government with a very small margin. This time also the same suspense continues. Will history be repeated, or will change of power begin in Bihar?

Political activity intensifies before the results

Political turmoil has intensified in Patna, Darbhanga, Bhagalpur and Gaya. Strategic meetings are going on in the alliance offices and the candidates are in touch with supporters in their respective areas. Before the counting of votes, every party is claiming victory, but the real picture will become clear only on November 14.

Also read: Tejashwi finished ahead of Nitish Kumar, close contest, new exit poll data surprised

After the completion of Bihar Assembly elections, the future of candidates of all political parties is locked in EVM, which will be revealed tomorrow on Friday (November 14, 2025). The Election Commission of India (ECI) will count the votes received by candidates on 243 assembly seats in the Bihar Assembly elections on Friday (November 14, 2025). After this it will become clear which coalition government will be formed in Bihar.

However, before the counting of votes, in almost all the exit polls that came out regarding Bihar elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to be getting an overwhelming majority.

Which party got how many seats in exit polls?,

According to the exit polls of IANS-Materize after voting on 243 assembly seats of Bihar, NDA will get 147 to 167 seats, while the opposition Grand Alliance is expected to get 70 to 90 seats.

According to CHANAKAYA STRATEGIES, NDA may get 130-138 seats, Grand Alliance may get 100-108 and others may get 3-5 seats in Bihar. At the same time, in the exit poll of POLSTRAT, NDA is seen getting 133-148 seats, Grand Alliance getting 87-102 seats and others getting 3-5 seats in Bihar elections 2025.

According to the exit poll of TIF Research, the BJP-led NDA may get 145 to 163 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections, while the Grand Alliance may get 76-95 seats and others may get 3 to 6 seats. At the same time, according to POLL DIARY data, NDA is likely to get 184-209 seats, Grand Alliance is likely to get 32-49 seats and others are likely to get 1 to 5 seats.

What was the result of Bihar Assembly elections in 2020?

At the same time, in the assembly elections held in Bihar in the year 2020, the figures of 11 exit polls were proved wrong. In the exit polls in Bihar in 2020, the opposition Grand Alliance was expected to get 125 seats and the NDA was expected to get 108 seats, but when the results came out, the NDA had got 125 seats, which is three seats more than the majority figure. In this, BJP got 74 seats and JDU got 43 seats, while the opposition grand alliance was reduced to 110 seats. In this, RJD got 75 seats and Congress party got 19 seats.

Also read: Bihar Election Result: Preparations for Bihar election counting completed, every nook and corner is being monitored, know the answer to every question.

The results of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 are being eagerly awaited. Meanwhile, most of the exit polls have claimed the return of Nitish Kumar led NDA to power with an average victory of 125 seats. At the same time, the opposition Grand Alliance has been given an average of 87 seats. Now the question arises that how much should exit polls be trusted? What does history say?

Let us know how accurate and wrong the exit polls were in the last two and a half decades and four assembly elections.

When exit polls were proved wrong in Bihar Assembly elections 2020

In the year 2020, an average of 11 exit polls had predicted that the Grand Alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) would form the government, albeit by a small margin. During that time, many exit polls had claimed that the Grand Alliance had won 125 seats, which was three seats more than the majority figure (122). At the same time, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) was said to get 108 seats.

In 2020, these average 11 exit polls proved wrong. NDA got 17 more seats and Grand Alliance got 15 seats less. Contrary to the exit poll figures, the NDA government came to power. The end result was that the NDA crossed the majority mark in the House by a very small margin. The ruling coalition party NDA got 125 seats (BJP- 74, JDU- 43), while the Grand Alliance got 110 seats (RJD- 75, Congress- 19).

How many exit polls were correct in 2015?

In the year 2015, Nitish Kumar’s JDU was a part of the grand alliance and BJP was leading the NDA. Other local parties were also included in NDA. At that time, six big exit polls had claimed that there would be an equal contest between the Grand Alliance and the NDA, but the government would be formed by the Grand Alliance. Exit polls had estimated that the Grand Alliance could get 123 seats while the BJP-led NDA could get 114 seats.

At the same time, three other exit polls had given the Grand Alliance victory by a huge margin and two exit polls believed that the NDA would form the government. Apart from this, there was an exit poll which indicated the possibility of a hung assembly.

After this, what happened was that the Grand Alliance came to power by winning two-thirds of the seats with a huge margin. That is, the exit poll gave the correct victory figures, but the Grand Alliance brought more seats than expected.

In the Bihar Assembly elections 2015, the Grand Alliance won 178 seats (RJD- 80, JDU- 71, Congress- 27), while the NDA could win only 58 constituencies (BJP- 53).

Where were the exit polls lagging behind in Bihar Assembly elections 2010?

In the 2010 assembly elections, exit polls had claimed the victory of NDA but had underestimated the wave of Nitish Kumar. BJP and JDU were part of NDA, while LJP contested the elections in alliance with RJD. JDU got 115 seats, while BJP got 91 seats. Apart from this, RJD had won 22 seats, Congress 4 and LJP 3 seats.

What happened in Bihar Assembly elections 2005?

Exit polls had predicted a victory for the NDA, and most exit polls had given the NDA 120 to 130 seats, while the RJD+ was projected to get between 90 and 100 seats.

What was the result?
JDU won 88 seats, BJP won 55 seats, while RJD won 54 seats. Whereas, LJP got 10 seats and Congress got 9 seats. Even during this period, the exit polls were lagging far behind in the figures.

Before the results of Bihar Assembly elections (2025), the exit poll results show the formation of NDA government. Today’s Chanakya exit poll has also been released. In this, the NDA alliance government seems to be getting 160 seats while the RJD alliance is getting 67 seats. 6 seats are going to others’ account. In many exit polls that came before this, the data also showed that NDA government will be formed again in Bihar.

On the other hand, Today’s Chanakya has also conducted a survey on the basis of caste. From this it has come to light that people of Yadav caste have also voted for the NDA alliance. RJD alliance seems to be getting 67 percent votes of Yadavs. At the same time, BJP-JDU alliance has got 23 percent votes.

How many seats for which alliance?

• NDA- 160 seats (+/- 12 seats)
• Grand Alliance- 77 seats (+/- 12 seats)
• Others- 6 Seats (+/- 3 Seats)

How much vote share does which alliance get?

• NDA – 44 (+/- 3%)
• Grand Alliance- 38 (+/- 3%)
• Others- 18 (+/- 3%)

Who got how much votes from which other category?

According to Today’s Chanakya survey, the NDA alliance seems to be getting about 55 percent votes of the two classes OBC and EBC in this election. At the same time, the Grand Alliance may have to be satisfied with only 24 percent. BJP alliance can get 58 percent votes from Scheduled Castes (SC). The Grand Alliance may have to be satisfied with only 26 percent votes.

#TCAnalysis#BiharElection2025
Bihar 2025
Caste Analysis – OBC & EBC
BJP+ 55% ± 3%
RJD+ 24% ± 3%#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

— Today’s Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 12, 2025

Muslim voters with whom?

The Muslim community votes the most for RJD. If we talk about it, these voters are still supporting Tejashwi Yadav. Today’s Chanakya has said in its exit poll that RJD alliance can get 69 percent votes of Muslims. The BJP-JDU alliance may have to be satisfied with only 12 percent votes.

#TCAnalysis#BiharElection2025
Bihar 2025
Caste Analysis – Muslim
BJP+ 12% ± 3%
RJD+ 69% ± 3%#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

— Today’s Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 12, 2025

Brahmin-Baniya vote for BJP alliance

Today’s Chanakya also conducted a survey on the voting trends of Brahmins, Banias and Rajputs. It was revealed that BJP-JDU alliance is getting 63 percent votes of these castes. The Grand Alliance may have to be satisfied with only 19 percent.

Everyone is waiting for the results of Bihar assembly elections. Counting of votes will begin on November 14. Before this, exit polls regarding the elections have also come out. Even though the exit poll of Axis My India has predicted full majority for NDA, this time Nitish Kumar has emerged as the King Mayor. According to the figures, whoever he is with will form the government in Bihar.

Even though the exit poll of Axis My India has predicted full majority for NDA, but Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD is emerging as the largest party, Nitish Kumar’s JDU may remain at the second position while BJP seems to be getting a setback in this election. BJP may remain the third party this time. In such a situation, the role of JDU has become important in forming the government.

JDU’s role important in Axis India My Exit Poll

In the exit poll, NDA may get 121 to 141 seats out of total 243 seats in Bihar. In which BJP is expected to get 50-56 seats whereas in the last election BJP had won 74 seats. At the same time, JDU is expected to get 56-62 seats, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party 11-16 seats, Hindustan Awam Morcha 2-3 seats and Upendra Kushwaha’s party is expected to get 2-4 seats.
At the same time, the Grand Alliance is estimated to get 98-118 seats. But RJD can emerge as the largest party. In the exit poll, RJD is predicted to get 67-76 seats. Indian National Congress may get 17-21 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party may get 3-5 seats, Left parties may get 10-14 seats and India Inclusive Party may get 0-1 seat.

Where Nitish Kumar is, there is government

If we look at these figures, this time the role of Nitish Kumar became important. Wherever Nitish Kumar goes, his government can be formed in Bihar. Nitish Kumar is in alliance with NDA, according to statistics NDA government is being formed. But if he leaves NDA and joins Tejashwi Yadav, then a grand alliance government can easily be formed by combining 67-76 seats of RJD and 56-62 seats of JDU.

Most of the exit polls in Bihar have predicted that NDA will return to power again. Everyone’s eyes are also on BJP candidate and folk singer Maithili Thakur from Alinagar seat of Darbhanga. Meanwhile, abp news talked to journalists regarding Alinagar seat. According to this, Maithili Thakur’s condition is not good and she may lose the election on this seat. Here he is competing against RJD candidate Vinod Mishra.

There are total 10 assembly seats in Darbhanga district. Voting on these seats was held in the first phase on 6 November. On average, 63.66 percent voting took place in Darbhanga district. Whereas 60.32 percent voting was recorded in Alinagar assembly seat.

Who gets how many seats in Darbhanga?

In the exit poll of journalists, it is estimated that out of total 10 seats in Darbhanga, 6 seats will go to NDA’s account. At the same time, Grand Alliance can get lead on 4 seats in this district.

Exit poll of journalists

• District- Darbhanga
• Total seats-10
• NDA-6
• Grand Alliance- 4

Who has the upper hand over Alinagar?

Grand alliance seems to have the upper hand on Alinagar assembly seat. RJD candidate Vinod Mishra can win the election from here. On this seat, there is a direct contest between folk singer Maithili Thakur of NDA and BJP’s strong Brahmin leader Vinod Mishra of RJD, in which the Grand Alliance may win due to infighting and division of votes of Brahmins due to being an outsider and denying the BJP ticket to a local.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Exit poll of journalists

• Total seats- 243
• NDA-125
• Grand Alliance- 87
• tough fight- 31

In the exit poll of journalists, NDA is likely to get 125 seats out of total 243 seats in Bihar. Whereas the Grand Alliance is estimated to win 87 seats. Along with this, according to this poll, there will be a tough fight between NDA and Grand Alliance on 31 seats. Voting was held on all 243 seats in Bihar in two phases on 6 and 11 November. The final results will be released by the Election Commission on 14 November.

(Disclaimer: Before the results of Bihar elections, ABP News has talked to 150 journalists of the state to understand the ground reality of Bihar elections. The figures of victory and defeat in every district have been prepared according to the opinion of the journalists.)

Before the results of Bihar Assembly Elections (2025), the exit poll has increased the tension of some people and happiness has increased for others. Amidst all this, everyone wants to know who can win from the seat from which Jan Suraj’s Sutradhar was talking about contesting?

Actually, Prashant Kishore had said that if he has to contest elections, he will contest from either Karmabhoomi or Janmabhoomi. He is originally from Rohtas district. He also went to his native village and voted for Karghar assembly seat. He could have contested from here but did not contest the elections. On the other hand, there was talk of fighting from Raghopur also.

BSP can win from Karghar seat

Amidst all this, who can win in Karghar, the exit poll of journalists has revealed a shocking thing. BSP candidate Uday Pratap Singh can win from Karghar seat. This means that the candidate of NDA or Grand Alliance may have to face defeat. Both Congress candidate Santosh Mishra and JDU candidate Vashishtha Singh may lose from the Grand Alliance.

Currently, Santosh Mishra of Congress is the only MLA from Karghar seat. It is from here that Ritesh Pandey is fighting with Jan Suraj. Both of them belong to Brahmin caste and the vote was divided between them. This seat has the highest number of Brahmin voters after Kurmi. This is the reason why Santosh Mishra may suffer loss.

Who can win how many of the 7 seats in Rohtas?

• RJD- 3 seats (Sasaram, Nokha and Dinara)
• BSP- 1 seat (Karghar)
• Congress- 1 seat (Chenari)
• Tough contest: 2 seats (Karakat and Dehri)

List of total seven seats of Rohtas district

• Sasaram
• Nokha
• Dinara
• Kargahar
• karakat
• Chenari
• Dehri

RJD has made Satyendra Shah its candidate from Sasaram. They can win. RJD has given ticket to Anita Chaudhary from Nokha who can win. In front of him is Nagendra Chandravanshi from JDU. Whereas RJD can win from Dinara seat. RJD has made Rajesh Yadav its candidate from here. from Chenari seat There is a contest between Mangal Ram of Congress and Murari Prasad Gautam from Chirag Paswan’s party LJPR. However, the Congress candidate can win from here.

Tough competition between whom on two seats?

Karakat- Tough contest between CPIML and Jyoti Singh, wife of independent candidate Pawan Singh. JDU’s Mahabali Singh may remain at third position.

Dehri- There is a tough contest between RJD’s Guddu Kumar Chandravanshi and LJPR’s Sonu Kumar alias Rajeev Ranjan Singh.

(Note: ABP News has prepared this figure after talking to senior journalists of the district and according to their opinion)

Also read- Exit Poll: Tejashwi Yadav’s ‘prediction’ amid exit poll, how many seats will the Grand Alliance win?

After the end of Bihar Assembly elections (2025), NDA government is seen forming in all the exit polls. Meanwhile, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has claimed that the Grand Alliance is going to get more than 160 seats. He said that before the counting of votes, we have got a better response than what Janata Dal got in 1995. Tejashwi Yadav was holding a press conference on Wednesday (November 12, 2025). Said this during this time.

Tejashwi Yadav said, “Yesterday, people were standing in the queue for voting from 6 o’clock till 7 o’clock… People kept standing and exit polls started coming. We are not in all. Neither live in happiness nor in misunderstanding. This survey has been conducted only psychologically under the pressure of all the officials who are engaged in the elections…” Tejashwi Yadav is RJD candidate from Raghopur.

Told the media persons present at the press conference, “Earlier also you people used to show in the survey which face of the Chief Minister is preferred by the people in Bihar… So Nitish Kumar could not get more than 16, 17 or 18 percent. There was not even an announcement in the NDA this time as to who will be the official face of the CM. This is the same media who had shown in the survey that Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi have been captured in Pakistan.”

Results on 14th…swearing in on 18th

On the exit poll, Tejashwi Yadav said, “We had said earlier also that results will be declared on 14th and swearing in will take place on 18th. This is definitely going to happen… BJP and NDA are losing their sweat. They are nervous and restless.”

Vote taken to replace Nitish Kumar

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav said that if we compare the voting of 2020 with this time, then 72 lakh people have voted more this time. This is a very big figure. If we distribute 72 lakh in 243 assemblies, then around 29,500 votes were cast in each assembly. That means these votes have not been cast to save Nitish Kumar, these have been cast to change the government. The government is going to change. These 72 lakh people have voted for change and transformation.

Tejashwi said, “We, you and all the people of Bihar know the strategy of the administration to put pressure on the people… Survey has been conducted and every effort will be made to slow down the counting. The entire process of counting will be slowed down… No action will be taken where bomb blasts and other incidents have taken place, but to kill democracy, these people will get the army to conduct flag marches in all the districts of Bihar so that people can be created panic… Grand alliance will register a huge victory.” Going…” He said, “Last time there was a difference of only 12 thousand votes. This time we are going for a clean sweep.”

Also read- Bihar CM Nitish Kumar: Nitish Kumar took refuge in God, went from temple to tomb and Gurudwara.

The Grand Alliance is not trusting the exit poll data in Bihar, but if we look at the data of 8-10 exit polls, then everyone is supporting the NDA to form the government in Bihar again. Meanwhile, on Wednesday (November 12, 2025) evening, ‘Axis My India’ has released the exit poll data. It is surprising that in this also NDA government is being formed in Bihar.

If we look at the exit poll data of ‘Axis My India’, it comes to light that NDA may get 121-141 seats this time. Whereas the Grand Alliance can get 98-118 seats. In the exit poll, Prashant Kishor’s party Jan Suraj has been given 0-2 seats. Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM has been given 0-2 seats. Others are getting 1-5 seats. 122 seats are needed to form government in Bihar.

How many seats does which party get in the Grand Alliance?

• RJD- 67-76
• Congress- 17-21
• VIP- 3-5
• Left- 10-14
• IIP- 0-1

Which party gets how many seats in NDA?

• BJP- 50-56
• JDU- 56-62
• LJP Ramvilas- 11-16
• Rashtriya Lok Morcha- 2-4
• Hindustani Awam Morcha- 2-3

What percentage of votes did ‘Axis My India’ give to whom?

• 43 percent to NDA
• 41 percent to Grand Alliance
• 4 percent to Jan Suraj
• 1 percent to AIMIM
• 11 percent to others

Prashant Kishor got the biggest shock

If you take any exit poll so far, Jan Suraj’s founder Prashant Kishor is getting the biggest shock. No one is giving them more than 2-4 seats. The preparation with which Prashant Kishor conducted the Padyatra in Bihar and attacked the Grand Alliance along with the NDA seemed to indicate that this time the picture would be different but nothing like this is visible in the exit polls. Now it has to be seen what the true picture will be when the results come on 14th November. Let us tell you that Prashant Kishore has said many times that he will either stay on his throne or on the floor.

Also read- Will Tej Pratap’s magic work in Mahua? Tejashwi Yadav’s suspense cleared! Check out the exit poll of hot seat

The exit poll of voting in the second phase of Bihar Assembly elections 2025 has now come out. Experts of ABP Live have prepared this exit poll, in which the situation of every seat in every district, the equation of victory and defeat and the impact of the major issues there on the elections have been explained in detail. Opinions have been taken from more than 150 journalists for 243 seats. Let us tell you who can win or lose the election from which seat.

BJP’s Prem Kumar is winning from Gaya!

Out of 10 seats in Gaya district, NDA is likely to get 2, JDU 1, HAM 2 and RJD 4, while there is tough competition on one seat. BJP’s Prem Kumar is winning in Gaya city. JDU’s Bela Devi in ​​Belaganj, HAM’s Romit Kumar in Atri and RJD’s Kumar Sarvjeet or LJP’s Shyamdev Paswan in Bodhgaya are likely to win. There is tough competition in Sherghati, Imamganj and Gurua also.

JDU is ahead in Jainpur and RJD is ahead in Bhabua?

Of the four seats in Kaimur district, JDU is likely to get one seat, RJD is likely to get one seat and two seats are in a close contest. JDU has lead in Chainpur, RJD is ahead in Bhabua, competition is tough in Mohania and Ramgarh also. In Rohtas, out of seven seats, one seat is for NDA, three seats are for Grand Alliance and there is tough competition on three seats. RJD is ahead in Sasaram and Nokha, BSP’s Uday Pratap Singh is likely to win from Karhagar. There is a close contest in Dehri and Karakat also.

Possible victory of RJD and LJP in Jehanabad?

Of the six seats in Aurangabad, NDA is likely to get two and Grand Alliance three, while there is tough competition on one seat. Goh and Obara are in favor of the Grand Alliance, while the Grand Alliance has an edge in Kutumba also. The distribution of seats in Arwal, Jehanabad and Nawada is mixed. One seat of Arwal is with the Grand Alliance, while the contest on the other is tough. RJD and LJP Ram Vilas are likely to win in Jehanabad, while out of five seats in Nawada, four are seen in favor of Grand Alliance and one in favor of NDA.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Three seats each of Madhubani in favor of BJP and JDU!

Of the seven seats in Bhagalpur, four are likely to go to the NDA and three to the Grand Alliance. Out of the five seats of Banka, there is tough competition on three NDA seats and two others. Of the four seats in Jamui, one seat is going in favor of BJP, one for us and two for RJD. Of the eight seats in Sitamarhi, NDA is likely to get seven and RJD one seat. The competition on the only seat of Shivhar is very tough. In Madhubani, three seats each are going in favor of BJP and JDU and one seat each is going to RJD and Congress. Of the five seats in Supaul, four are in favor of NDA and one in favor of RJD.

The distribution of seats in seven and six seats of Purnia and Araria is mixed. There is tough competition on three NDA, three Grand Alliance and one seat in Purnia. In Araria, there is tough competition on three seats for NDA, two for Grand Alliance and one for Grand Alliance.

NDA leads on 12 seats in East Champaran!

In Katihar and Kishanganj also, competition is being seen between NDA and Grand Alliance. Of the seven seats in Katihar, five are in favor of NDA and two in favor of Grand Alliance. Of the four seats in Kishanganj, there are three grand alliances and a tough contest on one. Out of total 21 seats in East and West Champaran, NDA is getting 15 seats and Grand Alliance is getting 6 seats. In East Champaran, there is a split between BJP, JDU, LJP and Congress in 12 seats, while in West Champaran, out of 9 seats, NDA is likely to get 6 seats and Grand Alliance is likely to get 3 seats.

Final results will come on November 14

According to the exit poll, in the second phase, NDA is seen getting a total of 63 seats, the Grand Alliance is seen getting 42 seats, while the contest is very tough on 17 seats. In party wise figures, BJP 31, JDU 23, RJD 26, Congress 12, LJP Ram Vilas 4 and Left, VIP, Rashtriya Lok Morcha are likely to get two seats each. The final result will be awaited on 14th November.

Also read- Lakhisarai Experts Exit Poll 2025: Congress captures Vijay Sinha’s seat! RJD has upper hand over Suryagarha in exit polls