Now only a few hours are left for the final results of Bihar Assembly elections and with the counting, the political atmosphere has become completely heated. The trends till 12 noon have made it clear that this time the contest seems to be one-sided.

According to the data till 12 noon, NDA is leading on 191 seats, which is much more than the absolute majority. In comparison, the Grand Alliance is ahead on only 48 seats, which presents a very disappointing picture for them. The final count of votes may change, but the difference is so big that its impact is likely to be visible on the final results as well.

Grand alliance’s increased concern

This trend is a matter of concern for the Grand Alliance. The Grand Alliance under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav had campaigned vigorously raising issues like unemployment, inflation and corruption, but from the initial trends it seems that they could not get the expected support. If seen, the seats of the Grand Alliance this time are half of the 2020 elections.

How was the result in the last assembly elections?

In the last assembly elections, NDA crossed the magic majority mark of 122 and won a total of 125 seats. BJP had won 74 seats, JDU 43, VIP 4 and Hindustan Awam Morcha 4 seats.

Grand alliance was limited to so many seats

At the same time, the Grand Alliance contested the elections with full strength and won a total of 110 seats. In this, RJD won 75 seats, Congress 19, CPI-ML 12, while CPI and CPM won 2 seats each.

Apart from these, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM had registered a spectacular victory on 5 seats, while BSP was able to win on 1 seat. Chirag Paswan’s LJP, which had contested the last election separately from the NDA, was successful in winning only one seat.

Read this also-

Bihar And Bypolls Election Results: Which party got how many seats in 243 seats of Bihar Assembly and 8 seats in by-elections? Read full result

The political equation is becoming very interesting in all the exit polls and surveys released before Bihar Assembly elections 2025. While most of the surveys are showing the NDA’s lead, a survey has also emerged which has increased the political stir. Journo Mirror’s survey has shown the Grand Alliance (MGB) getting a clear majority.

Journo Mirror changed the equation

According to Journo Mirror, the Grand Alliance may get 130 to 140 seats this time, while the NDA is said to be limited to only 100 to 110 seats. This estimate is completely opposite to all other surveys. It has been claimed in this survey that this time the public is in the mood for change and a new equation can be formed in the state.

NDA ahead in remaining surveys

However, other major survey agencies like P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, DV Research, Matriz IANS, Chanakya, Poll Diary and Praja Poll Analytics have shown the NDA close to or above the majority. Among these, NDA has got an estimate of 130 to 209 seats, while the Grand Alliance is said to be limited to between 32 to 108 seats.

Source	NDA	MGB (Grand Alliance)	OTH (other)
Matriz IANS	147–167	70–90	2–6
Chanakya	130–138	100–108	3–5
Poll Diary	184–209	32–49	1–5
Praja Poll Analytics	186	50	7
Polestrat	133–148	87–102	3–5
TIF Research	145–163	76–95	0–1
JVC	135–150	88–103	3–6
People’s Insight	133–148	87–102	3–6
People’s Pulse	133–159	75–101	2–13
P-Marq	142–162	80–98	1–7
DV Research	137–152	83–98	3–12
Journal Mirror	100–110	130–140	3–7
Poll of Polls (Average)	131–157	80–93	3–6

Which party got how many seats in 2020?

Last time in Bihar assembly elections i.e. in 2020, the NDA alliance had won and formed the government. At that time NDA had got a total of 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance had got success on 110 seats.

If we look at the figures of the last elections, in the NDA alliance, BJP got 74 seats, JDU got 43 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got 4 seats and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) also got 4 seats.

On the other hand, RJD had emerged as the largest party from the Grand Alliance by winning 75 seats. Congress got 19 seats, CPI (ML) got 12 seats, while AIMIM and other parties got 5 seats.

Read this also-

Poll of Polls: Nitish Kumar is in Bihar…! NDA’s success in exit polls, hopes of grand alliance also remain intact

The seat sharing formula for Bihar assembly elections has been decided between BJP and JDU. After several days of talks, both the parties have finally sealed the agreement. According to sources, a total of 203 seats have been agreed between BJP and JDU, while 40 seats can be left for allies. This agreement is believed to strengthen the electoral equation for the NDA alliance.

JDU likely to get 102 seats and BJP 101 seats

According to sources, under this agreement, JDU will field its candidates on 102 seats and BJP on 101 seats. At the same time, about 40 seats will be left for other allies of NDA. This formula is slightly different from the 2020 assembly elections, but this time both the parties have divided the seats keeping the coordination balanced. It is clear from this that NDA has tried to give a message of unity against the opposition alliance.

Possible seats of JDU quota

Major seats where JDU is likely to contest include Mehnar, Badhadiya, Vaishali, Amarpur, Valmikinagar, Phulparas, Dhamdaha, Kuchaikot, Barari, Runni Saidpur, Harlakhi, Supaul, Mokama, Pipra, Keshariya, Sandesh, Alamnagar, Jehanabad, Ghosi, Bihariganj, Hathua, Bhore, Sarairanjan, Sonbarsa, Shivhar, Seats like Kanti, Waris Nagar, Barbigha, Belaganj, Bahadurpur and Kalyanpur are included. JDU is considered to have traditional influence on these seats.

Possible seats of BJP quota

The seats discussed in BJP’s account include Pranpur, Baruraj, Tarari, Begusarai, Lakhisarai, Patepur, Jale, Darbhanga, Saharsa, Sahebganj, Katihar, Warisaliganj, Jamui, Bettiah, Madhuban, Jhanjharpur, Darundha, Goriyakothi, Amnaur, Hajipur, Biharsharif, Digha, Bankipur, Riga, Bisfi, Chhatapur, Banmankhi, Kumhrar, Patna Sahib, Danapur, Maner and Bikram are included. BJP is considered to have a strong hold on these seats. Let us tell you that Bihar Assembly elections will be held in two phases on 6th and 11th November, while the counting of votes will take place on 14th November.