The political equation is becoming very interesting in all the exit polls and surveys released before Bihar Assembly elections 2025. While most of the surveys are showing the NDA’s lead, a survey has also emerged which has increased the political stir. Journo Mirror’s survey has shown the Grand Alliance (MGB) getting a clear majority.

Journo Mirror changed the equation

According to Journo Mirror, the Grand Alliance may get 130 to 140 seats this time, while the NDA is said to be limited to only 100 to 110 seats. This estimate is completely opposite to all other surveys. It has been claimed in this survey that this time the public is in the mood for change and a new equation can be formed in the state.

NDA ahead in remaining surveys

However, other major survey agencies like P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, DV Research, Matriz IANS, Chanakya, Poll Diary and Praja Poll Analytics have shown the NDA close to or above the majority. Among these, NDA has got an estimate of 130 to 209 seats, while the Grand Alliance is said to be limited to between 32 to 108 seats.

Source	NDA	MGB (Grand Alliance)	OTH (other)
Matriz IANS	147–167	70–90	2–6
Chanakya	130–138	100–108	3–5
Poll Diary	184–209	32–49	1–5
Praja Poll Analytics	186	50	7
Polestrat	133–148	87–102	3–5
TIF Research	145–163	76–95	0–1
JVC	135–150	88–103	3–6
People’s Insight	133–148	87–102	3–6
People’s Pulse	133–159	75–101	2–13
P-Marq	142–162	80–98	1–7
DV Research	137–152	83–98	3–12
Journal Mirror	100–110	130–140	3–7
Poll of Polls (Average)	131–157	80–93	3–6

Which party got how many seats in 2020?

Last time in Bihar assembly elections i.e. in 2020, the NDA alliance had won and formed the government. At that time NDA had got a total of 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance had got success on 110 seats.

If we look at the figures of the last elections, in the NDA alliance, BJP got 74 seats, JDU got 43 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got 4 seats and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) also got 4 seats.

On the other hand, RJD had emerged as the largest party from the Grand Alliance by winning 75 seats. Congress got 19 seats, CPI (ML) got 12 seats, while AIMIM and other parties got 5 seats.

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Poll of Polls: Nitish Kumar is in Bihar…! NDA’s success in exit polls, hopes of grand alliance also remain intact

In view of seat sharing of NDA in Bihar elections, Upendra Kushwaha’s statement ‘All is not well in NDA’ late night on Tuesday (14 October) created a stir in the politics of Bihar. Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) chief Kushwaha is said to be angry over the seat distribution within the NDA. Dissatisfied with the Mahua assembly seat going to Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), senior BJP leaders reached Kushwaha’s house late in the night to pacify him, but all efforts failed.

According to sources, late on Tuesday night, Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, Minister Nitin Naveen and BJP leader Rituraj Sinha reached the residence of Upendra Kushwaha. The meeting lasted for about four hours and political churning continued till about 4 o’clock in the night. Even after the meeting no concrete result could be achieved. The leaders refused to come out and say anything to the media. There is talk that Upendra Kushwaha will meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi today.

Kushwaha called an emergency meeting today

After the overnight turmoil, Upendra Kushwaha has now called an emergency meeting of his party at 12:30 pm on Wednesday. The further strategy of RLM will be decided in the meeting. It is believed that after this meeting, Kushwaha can make a big political announcement by holding a press conference. This is likely to further increase the tussle within the NDA.

Kushwaha will meet Amit Shah today

Amidst the ongoing resentment within the NDA in Bihar, Upendra Kushwaha will meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi today. It is believed that the dispute arising between the two leaders regarding seat sharing will be discussed in detail. Kushwaha will go to Delhi in the hope of solution.

Resentment started due to seat distribution

In fact, on Sunday, NDA had announced the seat sharing formula for Bihar assembly elections. Under this, BJP and JDU were given 101-101 seats, Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) was given 29 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM were given 6-6 seats. Kushwaha had demanded 24 seats from the beginning and Manjhi had claimed 15 seats. Both the leaders had openly expressed their displeasure over the distribution of seats.

Emotional message on social media

Immediately after the seat distribution, Kushwaha had apologized to his supporters on social media and wrote – “I am sorry to all of you. The number of seats could not be as per your wish, food would not have been cooked in many houses today. But there are some circumstances which are not visible.”

Now when Kushwaha is openly saying that “all is not well in NDA”, this statement has become a big sign of dissatisfaction and instability within NDA before Bihar elections.