After the end of both the phases of voting in Bihar, all eyes are on the results, but before that, various survey agencies have released exit polls. Almost every exit poll is predicting the return of the NDA government. Although the grand alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal seems to be giving a tough competition to the NDA, but if we talk about majority, the exit polls show that the NDA is closer to it. Meanwhile, such a thing has been seen in a poll, which can cause a big blow to BJP and Nitish’s JDU.

There are indications of a tough contest between the NDA and the Grand Alliance in the exit polls of News Pinch-AI Politics, but Rashtriya Janata Dal may emerge as the largest party. According to the survey, on the one hand, the ruling NDA alliance can win 121 seats. At the same time, the Grand Alliance seems to be getting 119 seats.

According to the exit poll of News Pinch-AI Politics, out of 121 seats of NDA and 119 seats of Grand Alliance, 6 seats are expected to increase or decrease. Apart from this, 3 to 5 seats can go to others’ account. According to this, no alliance seems to be getting a clear majority.

How many seats for which alliance?

• NDA- 121 (+/- 6 seats)
• Grand Alliance- 119 (+/- 6 seats)
• Others- 3-5 (+/- 2 seats)

Which alliance gets what percentage of votes?

• NDA- 38.4%
• Grand Alliance- 39.2%
• Jan Suraj Party- 12.7%
• Others- 9.8%

Which party gets how many seats in NDA?

• BJP- 85-93 seats
• JDU- 25-31 seats
• LJPR- 2-4 seats
• We- 0-1 seat

How many seats does which party get in the Grand Alliance?

• RJD- 89-97 seats
• Congress- 14-21 seats
• VIP- 2-3 seats
• CPI- 1-2 seats
• CPIML- 2-5 seats
• CPM- 1-2 seats

It was told in the exit poll that RJD can emerge as the largest party by winning 89-97 seats. At the same time, Bharatiya Janata Party can get 85-93 seats in its name, while JDU can get 25-31 seats, LJP can get 2-4 seats and HAM can get 0-1 seats. At the same time, the grand alliance party Congress may get 14-21 seats, VIP 2-3, CPI 1-2, CPI(ML)L 2-5 and CPIM 1-2.

The second phase of Bihar Assembly elections 2025 is now just a few days away. After voting on 121 seats in the first phase, now on November 11, voters will decide the fate of 1302 candidates on 122 seats in 18 districts. Political parties have put all their strength into these seats and campaigning is at its peak.

In the second phase, voting will be held from the areas of Seemanchal bordering UP to the seats of Champaran belt and Mithilachal. In the first phase, Nitish Kumar and Jitan Ram Manjhi were tested on the credibility of NDA, whereas in the second phase, it is considered to be the real test of BJP. RJD and Congress have to prove their strength in the grand alliance, while it will be challenging for Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to save its credibility in Seemanchal. In 2020, Owaisi surprised everyone by winning the seats of this phase.

Districts and seats for the second phase

In the second phase, voting will be held on 122 seats in 18 districts. These include 10 from Gayaji district, 4 from Kaimur, 7 from Rohtas, 6 from Aurangabad, 2 from Arwal, 3 from Jehanabad, 5 from Nawada, 7 from Bhagalpur, 5 from Banka, 4 from Jamui, 8 from Sitamarhi, 1 from Shivhar, 10 from Madhubani, 5 from Supaul, 7 from Purnia, 6 from Araria, Along with 7 seats of Katihar and 4 seats of Kishanganj, 12 assembly seats of East Champaran and 9 assembly seats of West Champaran are included.

List of main assembly seats

• Gayaji: Belaganj, Gaya Town, Bodh Gaya, Tikari, Sherghati, Barachatti (SC), Attri, Imamganj (SC), Guruva, Wazirganj.
• Kaimur: Chainpur, Mohania, Bhabua, Ramgarh
• Rohtas: Nokha, Dehri, Karakat, Karghar, Sasaram, Chenari, Dinara
• Aurangabad: Goh, Obra, Navinagar, Kutumba, Aurangabad, Rafiganj
• Arwal: Arwal, Kurtha
• Jehanabad: Jehanabad Sadar, Makhdumpur (SC), Ghosi
• Nawada: Hisua, Nawada, Govindpur, Warsaliganj, Rajauli (SC)
• Bhagalpur: Bihpur, Gopalpur, Peerpainti (SC), Kahalgaon, Bhagalpur, Sultanganj, Nathnagar.
• Banka: Banka, Amarpur, Katoria (ST), Dhoraiya (SC), Belhar.
• Jamui: Sikandra (SC), Jamui, Jhajha, Chakai

Voting will be held on a total of 55 seats in Mithilanchal and Seemanchal also. The seats of Sitamarhi, Shivhar, Madhubani, Supaul, Purnia, Araria, Katihar and Kishanganj will be decisive for these regional voters. 21 seats of East and West Champaran belt of Champaran belt are also included in this phase.

The biggest challenge for NDA

In this phase, NDA’s challenge is the biggest, especially BJP is under pressure to save its seats. At the same time, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan also have to prove themselves in their strong areas. For the grand alliance, RJD and Congress will try to show signs of returning to power. The Grand Alliance had 50 out of 66 seats on these seats in 2020, while BJP won 42 seats, JDU won 20 and MGP/Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party won four seats.

Owaisi and other regional parties

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has strengthened its influence by winning five seats in Seemanchal and this time too it is eyeing about 19 seats, where Muslim voters are more than 30%. Other parties like CPI-MALE, BSP and independent candidates are also participating in this election.

Political parties intensified campaigning

Political parties have intensified the campaign for this phase. The Grand Alliance has mainly focused on the seats of Seemanchal and Mithilanchal, while the NDA has shown its strength on the UP-Border and Champaran belt. The administration has also made special arrangements for security on the day of voting and to make the election process systematic.

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Union Minister and National President of Apna Dal Anupriya Patel is going to hold a big rally in Bareilly on Tuesday (November 4) on the occasion of the party’s foundation day. For this, party leaders are holding meetings at various places and preparing for the Bareilly rally.

Apna Dal MLA from Swar Assembly of Rampur, Shafiq Ahmed Ansari held a meeting in Rampur with the leaders of five districts of Moradabad division and outlined the program for November 4. During this, Shafiq Ansari said that the party will win all the Muslim dominated seats in the 2027 assembly elections.

Shafiq Ansari’s big claim

Shafiq Ahmed Ansari said that BJP is not able to win in Muslim dominated seats of UP. If BJP leaves those seats for Apna Dal, then Apna Dal will win all the Muslim dominated seats like Swar seat, because there are extremely backward and Muslim voters with Apna Dal.

He said that Akhilesh Yadav may be talking about PDA but in reality PDA is with Apna Dal only. He said that the foundation day of the party will be celebrated on November 4 in Bareilly in which Union Minister and National President of the party Anupriya Patel will attend. Apna Dal is preparing to woo the backward people and Muslims by organizing a program in Bareilly in Western UP.

What did the MLA say about PDA?

Regarding PDA community joining the party, Shafiq Ansari said, our party has a very old alliance with the NDA alliance. From 2014 till now, he has contested all the elections as an ally of BJP.

Shafiq said that the real PDA is ours. There are MLAs from every category in our party, there is no caste which is not together. In the real PDA, we will contest the 2027 elections with full force by being with the NDA alliance.

MLA spoke about foundation day

Regarding the foundation day of Apna Dal, he said that this program will be organized in Bareilly. On Sunday (October 26), all the officials of the board were called and a meeting was held. He further said that the party was established on 4 November. We will celebrate this foundation day with great enthusiasm. Shafiq Ansari further said that National President Anupriya Patel will also participate in this program as the chief guest.