After the announcement of the dates of Bihar Assembly elections 2025, the stir in the politics of the state has intensified. With the release of C-Voter survey, a new twist has come in the political equations. In this survey, the public was asked which alliance is getting the lead, who is most popular as the Chief Minister and whether the effect of Rahul Gandhi’s visit is visible.

According to C-Voter survey, NDA (BJP + JDU) is getting 40.2% support, while the Grand Alliance (RJD + Congress) is expected to get 38.3% votes. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has got the support of 13.3% people, while 8.2% people have no clear opinion. There is a difference of only two percent between NDA and Grand Alliance. In such a situation, 13 percent vote share of Jan Suraj Party can become a big factor. If Prashant Kishor’s party is successful in winning some seats, then it can play the role of ‘kingmaker’ in the elections.

Impact of Rahul Gandhi’s visit

According to the survey, 51 percent people of Bihar believe that the Grand Alliance will benefit from Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’. Whereas 32.8 percent say that this yatra will not have any impact. The remaining 16.2 percent did not give a clear opinion. This figure shows that Rahul Gandhi’s visit has helped in creating an atmosphere in favor of Tejashwi Yadav. This has increased enthusiasm among the supporters of the Grand Alliance.

Public choice for the post of Chief Minister

According to C-Voter survey, Tejashwi Yadav still remains the first choice of the public. In the data of October 2025, he got 36.2 percent support. His support was 34.9 percent in June and 40.6 percent in February. The popularity of JDU leader Nitish Kumar is continuously declining. This time he has got 15.9 percent support. Whereas Prashant Kishore is emerging rapidly and has now become the choice of 23.2 percent people. Chirag Paswan has got 8.8 percent support and BJP’s Samrat Chaudhary has got 7.8 percent support.

Jan Suraj Party’s growing momentum

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has got 13 percent support, which is a huge figure for a new party. He has so far released the list of 51 candidates and said that his party will contest elections on 243 seats. Prashant Kishor’s popularity is continuously increasing among the youth and first-time voters. This trend shows that the third front is emerging strongly in Bihar.

SIR controversy and political impact

Public opinion is divided regarding SIR (Special Voter Revision). About 46 percent people believe that this process will directly benefit the NDA, while 21.7 percent said that the Grand Alliance can benefit from it. The opposition has alleged that in this process, about 65 lakh names were removed and only 21 thousand new ones were added. A large section of the public is considering this as administrative bias, due to which there is a possibility of loss to the opposition.

Bihar elections 2025 divided into three fronts

Now the contest in Bihar is no longer just between NDA and Grand Alliance. The rise of Jan Suraj has made it triangular. Tejashwi Yadav is maintaining his popularity, Nitish Kumar’s graph is falling and Prashant Kishor is emerging as a new political force. If the current trend continues till the elections, then a three-front contest in Bihar can be considered certain. In this situation, Jan Suraj Party can prove to be the ‘kingmaker’.

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The politics of Bihar has always revolved around face and alliances. In the assembly elections 2025, the question is that who wants to see the public as the next Chief Minister. In recent years, alliances have changed the equations many times, but the choice of the public and the popularity of the leaders is constantly monitored.

The survey of C-Voter has come up with this environment. In the survey conducted from February to September 2025, Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag Paswan, Emperor Chaudhary and Prashant Kishore have seen fluctuations in the public opinion. This survey also shows that whose grip is getting stronger on the public and whose grip is getting weaker.

Nitish Kumar still strengthened despite declining popularity
Nitish Kumar has been the biggest face of Bihar politics, but the C-Voter survey figures show that in February 2025, where 18% of the people were liking him as CM, in June this figure came down to 17%. His popularity fell to 15% in August and reached 16% with a slight increase in September. Interestingly, the public is still satisfied about their functioning. In February, 58% of people were satisfied with their work, it increased to 60% in June and 61% of the people were said to be satisfied in September. This means that even though there has been a decline in support as his CM face, the public’s trust in his work still remains.

Tejashwi Yadav continuously ups and downs but still at the forefront
Tejashwi Yadav was the first choice of 41% people in February 2025. However, it fell to 35% in June and went down by 31% in August. His popularity once again reached 36% in September. Political analysts believe that political activism like his vote rights journey and Bihar Adhikar Yatra reopens his graph. The increasing support base of Tejashwi Yadav also suggests that the inclination of youth and people who see change in Bihar politics is still in their favor.

Chirag Paswan and Emperor Chaudhary Stable
Chirag Paswan was only 4% of the people’s choice in February, but his support increased to 10% in June. It decreased slightly to 9% in August and again 10% in September. At the same time, Emperor Chaudhary started 8% in February and reached 10% in June. His support remained there in August and decreased slightly to 7% in September. The popularity of these two leaders has not seen very big ups and downs, which seems that their grip is stable but within a limited scope.

Prashant Kishore steady growing popularity
Prashant Kishore was the largest surprise package of the C-Voter survey. In February, 15% of people liked him as CM. The figure increased to 16% in June and reached 23% directly in September. His ever increasing popularity indicates that the public is seeing him as an alternative. His strategic thinking and new political experiments may probably establish him firmly in Bihar politics.

The choice of satisfaction versus leadership of the people of Bihar
The most interesting aspect of the survey is that the level of satisfaction with Nitish Kumar’s functioning has reached 61%, but the number of those who like him as CM is only 16%. This suggests that the public is happy with their work, but is not giving them as much encouraging support in the leadership for the next term. At the same time, Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity is at the forefront even after falling and falling. Prashant Kishore is constantly growing up, due to which this election is becoming more exciting.

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Bihar is expected to hold assembly elections in October-November, although the dates of elections have not been announced yet. As soon as the elections approached, the political stir is at its peak. Political parties have intensified their strategy amidst the controversy over the name cutting from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and the voter list. During this time, the C-Voter has released the latest survey, which shows which leader’s popularity is increasing among the public and who is left behind. According to the survey, this election can prove to be a big opportunity for the NDA vs India alliance as well as an independent face Prashant Kishore.

This time the election has been made interesting by the voter list controversy and SIR. Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav are also interacting continuously among the public through voters rights yatra. In such a situation, it is very important to know who the public wants to see as CM. Regarding this, C-Voter conducted three separate surveys in February, June and August 2025. Come, let’s see what the opinion of the public says.

C-Voter Survey Nitish Kumar and NDA’s faces
Nitish Kumar has been a big face of Bihar politics for a long time, but the C-Voter survey shows that his popularity is steadily declining. In February, 18% of people were liking him as CM Face. The figure remained at 18% in June, but by August it decreased to 15%. The second face of NDA is Chirag Paswan and Emperor Chaudhary. Chirag Paswan was at 4% in February, suddenly reached 11% in June, but has come to 10% in August. Samrat Chaudhary was 8% in February, 7% in June and 10% in August. This means that no major face in NDA has been able to replace Nitish Kumar at the moment.

Tejashwi Yadav public’s first choice?
Tejashwi Yadav is considered to be the biggest contender from India alliance. He has been at number one in all three stages of the survey. 41% in February, 37% in June and 31% in August. In this way, his popularity is seen to decline, but despite this, he is overshadowing Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Samrat Chaudhary. These figures show that the public’s inclination is still towards Tejashwi Yadav, even if the graph has come down a bit.

Will Prashant Kishore become kingmaker or player?
The most interesting face is that of Prashant Kishore. He got 15 percent of the votes in February, this figure increased to 16 in June and reached 22 with an increase of 6 percent in August. That is, his popularity is continuously increasing. If this speed is maintained then they can become a big challenge by November. Since they are not associated with any alliance, the question is arising whether they will be a kingmaker or try to become a king themselves.

Election Commission and Rahul Gandhi dispute
In this electoral atmosphere, Rahul Gandhi has also questioned the name of the voter list and the fairness of the Election Commission. In a survey, 59% of the people admitted that Rahul Gandhi’s allegations have power. At the same time, 67% of the people said that the Election Commission should answer Rahul Gandhi’s questions. This issue can directly affect voters and change the electoral equation.

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