Credit rating agency ICRA said in its new report on Monday that GDP growth is estimated to be 6.9 per cent in India’s March quarter (Q4 FY25). This estimate is less than the estimate of the National Statistics Office (NSO) in February, with Q4 growth 7.6 percent.

The full year growth in FY25 can be limited to 6.3 percent

ICRA believes that India’s economic growth rate can be 6.3 percent in the entire financial year 2024-25. While NSO said in February that GDP growth in FY25 would be 6.5 percent. If NSO’s estimate is to be considered accurate, then the growth of the March quarter should be 7.6 percent, which is now difficult.

FY25 declines possible compared to FY24

According to ICRA, GDP growth in FY2023-24 was 9.2 per cent, but in FY2024-25 it is likely to fall sharply. This decline can be mainly due to dispatcies in private consumption and investment activities.

What did the Chief Economist of ICRA say?

Speaking to PTI, ICRA chief economist Aditi Nair said that there was no equal pace in personal consumption and investment activities in the fourth quarter. One reason for investment lethargy has also been uncertainty about tariffs.

Export of services is good, but export of goods dropped

The report also reported that Service Exports have shown a growth of two consecutive points, while merchandise exports i.e. export of goods, which increased in December, has now gone into decline in the March quarter.

Government figures will come on 31 May

Now everyone’s eyes are on 31 May 2025, when the NSO March quarter and the entire FY25 will release the provisional GDP data. Only then will it be decided whether the estimate of ICRA is proved correct or the government figures are more promising.

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