Global discussions are intensifying regarding political and geo-economic changes in Venezuela. According to reports and the Global Trade Research Initiative, if the balance of power there changes and US sanctions are eased, the overall impact on India may be limited, as the current trade between the two countries is very low. However, in the period 2000–2010, India used to import crude oil from Venezuela on a large scale. ONGC Videsh, IOC and Oil India had also invested in Orinoco Belt, but after 2019 this business almost stopped due to US sanctions. In today’s situation, Reliance Industries can get the most benefit. The Jamnagar refinery can process heavier Venezuelan crude, which is cheaper. Margins and profits can increase if imports become easier, signs of which are visible in the market.

As soon as America launched a ground attack on its neighboring country Venezuela, geopolitical tension has increased in the beginning of 2026. Under the leadership of Donald Trump, America has claimed to occupy Venezuela. America has suddenly attacked Venezuela and arrested its President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

This attack by America is likely to affect the global market. Changes may be seen in the prices of crude oil and other precious commodities. Because Venezuela not only has oil reserves, but also gold and other metals in large quantities.

Oil prices were at their lowest level in four years

Only last month, oil prices were at their lowest level in four years. US President Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric against Venezuela. Apart from these, tension has increased in many areas of the world including China and Taiwan.

By the time the market closed on Friday, the price of Brent crude was above $60, but its price has been falling for the last few days. There is every possibility of change in this trend on Monday.

America will take charge of Venezuela

Venezuela has the largest reserves of crude oil. Trump has made it clear that America will repair Venezuela’s damaged energy infrastructure, for now the administrative command of the country will be in his hands.

Venezuela has immense reserves of oil, but the country is still facing many stringent sanctions. Its supply is limited. IEA has warned that the supply shortage will last into 2026.

Investment may be seen in gold

Apart from the prices of crude oil, people can invest in gold. Gold prices have touched the best price figures in the year 2025. This has been seen for the first time since 1979, that is, an increase of 70% has been seen in the prices of gold in so many years. After America’s attack, there may be a lot of change in their prices.

Venezuela has the largest gold reserves

Venezuela has the largest gold reserves in the American subcontinent. This is approximately 161 metric tons. Its price could be around $22 billion. Fluctuations have also been seen in the prices of silver. An increase of about 160% has been seen in this. On Monday, everyone’s eyes will be on the prices of the US dollar.

Strength of US dollar negative for India

The strengthening of the US dollar proves negative for India. Here, the tariff system imposed by America has also reduced our dependence on America. The currency has been recorded continuously weakening.

All eyes on Wall Street

Positive changes have been seen in the Wall Street Index for three consecutive years. It has entered 2026 with double digit returns. If there is a negative reaction on Wall Street, there will be a direct impact on the global equity market.

Crude oil Prices: Geopolitical tension is once again at its peak amid America’s attack on Venezuela. This may also affect the prices of crude oil in the future. After the US military operations in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife there, concerns have increased about possible disruptions in oil supply at the global level.

America’s occupation of Venezuela

Venezuela is among those countries in the world where oil is produced on a large scale. Venezuela has the world’s largest crude oil reserves. However, for the last few years, due to the sanctions imposed by America, the supply of crude oil from Venezuela has been limited.

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that after the capture of President Nicolas, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, America’s hold in the Venezuelan oil industry will become stronger. Speaking to Fox News, Trump said that American oil companies will now play a bigger role there and will make Venezuelan companies the largest companies in the world.

What will be the impact on oil prices?

Currently, oil prices have decreased slightly and remain around $60 per barrel. However, in recent times there has been increasing uncertainty regarding the developments taking place in one of the countries with the most oil in the world.

According to a Reuters report, Venezuela’s state energy company PDVSA had informed that till Saturday, their oil production and refining operations were running normally and there was no damage to their facilities due to the American attacks. However, it is equally true that if the attack increases tension, the oil companies will face difficulty in functioning. It will also become difficult for ships to reach Venezuelan ports, which will lead to interruption in supplies.

impact on india

If seen from India’s perspective, India’s relations with Venezuela are already based on oil imports. However, it decreased due to US sanctions in 2021 and 2022. Oil business increased again in 2023-24 and India’s petroleum imports from Venezuela increased to about $1 billion. According to a report by The Financial Express, India had become the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude oil for some time in December 2023. Whereas at present China remains the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude oil.

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India Oil Import: Ever since America has imposed sanctions on Russia, India is in trouble. India now has to buy crude oil from far-flung countries. According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, India has now started buying crude oil from Guyana.

For this, Indian tankers have to cover a long distance of about 11,000 miles (17,700 kilometers). According to the report, two large crude carriers, Cobalt Nova and Olympic Lion, left the South American country of Guyana in late November, each carrying about 2 million barrels of oil. These tankers are going to reach India in January.

India is looking for an alternative to Russia

Tracking data also showed that this is the first crude shipment from Guyana to India since 2021. During that time also, two cargoes loaded with 1 million barrels of crude oil had departed. India was importing about 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil every day, but last month US sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s two biggest exporters, raised concerns among Indian refiners. Even before this, US President Donald Trump had doubled the tariff on India for buying crude oil from Russia to 50 percent.

Oil was available at discount from Russia

India is the third largest buyer of crude oil in the world, having purchased crude oil worth $52.7 billion from Russia last year, which was 37 percent of Russia’s total exports. Apart from Russia, India also imports crude oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and America. However, the special thing is that India gets crude oil from Russia at a discount rate. India got an average discount of 14.1 percent on Russian oil in the year 2022-23 and up to 10.4 percent in 2023-24. Due to this, India got savings of up to 5 billion dollars.

This is the destination of both ships

The Olympic Lion, a cargo of Guyana’s Golden Arrowhead crude, is headed to Paradip on India’s east coast, where state-run Indian Oil Corp. Operates a 300,000 barrel-per-day refinery. It acquired ExxonMobil Inc. through a tender in October. Bought the cargo from. Cobalt Nova, carrying a mixed cargo of Liza and Unity Gold grades, will probably disembark in Mumbai or Visakhapatnam, where Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Runs the plant. The company purchased 1 million barrels of each of these grades for delivery from late December to early January.

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Crude Oil Prices: We often hear or see such news that the price of petrol and diesel may become cheaper in the coming days. But have you ever heard that the price of crude oil will become cheaper than a bottle of water?

It is being told that in the coming time, the price of crude oil in the international market may become less than the price of a bottle of drinking water. This is not an exaggeration, but an estimate made by global brokerage company JP Morgan. According to JP Morgan, the price of Brent crude may fall to $ 30 per barrel by March 2027.

Price of 1 liter less than Rs 18

If this price is converted into Indian Rupee at an exchange rate of around Rs 95 per dollar, then the price of one barrel will be around Rs 2,850. There are 159 liters in a barrel. According to this, the price of one liter of crude oil will be only Rs 17.90, which is less than the price of mineral water bottle which is usually sold between Rs 18 to Rs 20 per liter in Delhi.

This estimate of JP Morgan is very important for countries which are heavily dependent on crude oil imports, such as India, which imports about 86 percent of its crude oil requirement from other countries. JP Morgan estimates that the price of Brent crude could fall by more than 50 percent from the current level, which is currently a little above $62 per barrel. This decline is being expected because supply may increase more than demand at the global level.

Effect of oversupply will be visible

Even though global oil consumption is expected to increase continuously over the next three years, supply growth is expected to be much higher than demand, especially from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore). If there is more supply, its effect on the price will be clearly visible.

Worldwide oil demand is expected to increase by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025, taking total consumption to 105.5 mbpd. Growth is expected to remain stable in 2026 and may increase to 1.2 mbpd in 2027. However, JP Morgan estimates that supply will grow almost three times faster than demand in 2025 and 2026. By 2027, supply will exceed consumption, which will lead to oversupply and prices will fall.

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Russian Crude Oil: After the new sanctions imposed by the US on major exporters of Russian crude oil are fully implemented, energy market experts believe that the import of Russian oil to India will decline rapidly in the near future, although it will not stop completely.

US sanctions have come into effect on Rosneft, Lukoil and their majority-owned companies from November 21. After these restrictions, it has become almost impossible to buy or sell crude oil from these companies.

India imported an average of 17 lakh barrels of Russian oil per day this year. It is expected to increase to 18–19 lakh barrels per day in November, because refineries are buying more and more cheap oil before the ban comes into force. But there is a possibility of a sharp decline in its supply in December and January. According to experts, it can come down to about 4 lakh barrels per day.

How did India’s dependence on Russian oil increase?

India, traditionally dependent on West Asian crude, started buying large quantities of oil from Russia after the Ukraine war started in February 2022. Due to Western sanctions and reduced demand from Europe, Russia started selling crude oil at a huge discount. As a result, India’s Russian oil imports increased from 1% to almost 40% of total imports. Even in November, Russia remained India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for about one-third of total imports.

Decline certain in December-January

Kpler research analyst Sumit Ritolia said that we expect a clear decline in Russian crude oil flows to India in the near future, especially in December and January. “Deliveries have slowed since October 2021, but given Russia’s capacity as intermediaries and alternative financial management, it is too early to draw final conclusions.”

Following US sanctions, Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery have currently stopped purchasing Russian oil. The only exception is Nayara Energy, which is backed by Rosneft and is highly dependent on Russian oil in the absence of alternative sources following European sanctions.

Ritolia said that except Nayara’s Vadiner plant, no Indian refiner is willing to take the risks associated with OFAC-designated entities. “It will take time for buyers to rearrange their contracts, supply routes, ownership structures and payment channels.”

impact on indian market

Cheap Russian oil has been a major source of profit for Indian refiners in the last two years. Due to this, the retail prices of petrol and diesel have remained stable despite the instability in the international market. India meets 88% of its oil requirements through imports.

Now that US sanctions have come into full force, India’s Russian oil imports have entered an unstable and uncertain phase. Experts believe that there will be no complete stoppage of oil from Russia, but there will be a clear and sharp decline in its supply in the near future.

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Dollar vs Rupee: The Indian currency is continuously weakening amid ongoing uncertainty in global trade and heavy selling pressure. As soon as the market opened on Tuesday morning, the second trading day of the week, the rupee fell by 8 paise to reach 88.67 against the US dollar. Experts say that despite the weak American currency, fall in crude oil prices and inflow of some foreign capital, the rupee could not gain strength.

Why is the rupee falling?

Experts believe that there is concern among investors about the increasing import bill and the increasing trade deficit of the country. Along with this, the market’s eyes are fixed on the proposed trade deal between India and America and the PMI data coming at the end of the week. A day earlier on Monday, the rupee had closed at 88.59 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which shows the position of the US dollar against six major currencies, declined by 0.05 percent to 99.43.

According to Anuj Chaudhary, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the fall in crude oil prices has given some relief to the rupee, but the widening trade deficit is preventing a sharp recovery. He said that due to dollar demand from importers, need for hedging, withdrawal of foreign institutional investors and pressure of trade deficit, further slight decline in rupee may be seen.

stock market crash

Weakness was also seen in the domestic stock markets. BSE Sensex slipped 151.86 points or 0.18 percent to 84,799.09 in early trade. Similarly, NSE Nifty-50 also fell by 44.50 points or 0.17 percent to the level of 25,967.30.

International standard Brent crude declined by 0.47 percent to $ 63.90 per barrel. According to stock market data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained buyers on Monday and bought shares worth a net Rs 442.17 crore.

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India To Cut Russian Crude Oil Imports: India is going to cut direct purchases of crude oil from Russia from the end of November. This step is being taken in view of the new US sanctions imposed on two major Russian oil companies – Rosneft and Lukaoil – from November 21. According to news agency PTI, analysts say that these restrictions may force Indian refinery companies to change their oil purchasing patterns.

Major Indian companies will reduce purchases of Russian oil

Three major companies that account for more than half of India’s total Russian oil imports – Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), Mangaluru Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited (HMEL) – are set to reduce direct purchases of Russian oil in compliance with the new US sanctions. Reliance has a long-term supply agreement with Rosneft, while MRPL and HMEL have decided to postpone future Russian oil shipments.

America has announced that strict economic sanctions will be imposed on Rosneft and Lukaoil from November 21. All American assets and financial transactions of these companies will be banned. Apart from this, if institutions of other countries also do large transactions with them, then “secondary sanctions” can also be imposed on them.

In the first half of the year 2025, India had imported about 18 lakh barrels per day of crude oil from Russia, in which RIL, MRPL and HMEL had more than half the share. However, the Gujarat-based Vadinar refinery (Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft has a partial stake) will continue its existing Russian oil procurement pattern, as it is already under EU sanctions and is primarily dependent on Russian crude.

Russian oil supply may fall in December

Sumit Ritolia, principal analyst at shipping data firm Kpler, says Russian crude oil shipments will see a decline after November 21 as most Indian refineries will reduce or stop direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukaoil in compliance with US sanctions. Kepler forecasts a sharp decline in Russian oil supplies in December 2025, although the situation could gradually normalize through new trade routes and alternative channels as early as 2026.

To reduce dependence on Russian oil, Indian refiners are now increasing oil purchases from West Asia, Latin America, West Africa, Canada and America. India’s US oil imports stood at 5.68 lakh barrels per day in October — the highest since March 2021.

Ritolia further said that however, the cost of sourcing oil from other countries is higher, which may reduce the price advantage. “Despite this, India’s crude oil sources are likely to become more diverse and balanced in the coming months.” Overall, the US sanctions have triggered the process of reshaping India’s energy strategy, where striking a balance between security, cost and supply stability has become a new priority.

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OPEC+ Decisions on Crude Oil: There is now going to be a brake on oil purchases from Russia, which supplied cheap crude oil to India amid the Ukraine war. Due to US sanctions, Indian companies have decided to stop purchasing crude oil from two major Russian oil companies for the time being. Meanwhile, the decisions taken in the recent meeting of OPEC Plus, a group of oil producing countries, have further increased India’s concerns.

Two big decisions of OPEC Plus

According to the New York Times report, OPEC Plus countries took two important decisions in the meeting held on Sunday – daily oil production will be increased by 1.37 lakh barrels from December 2025. However, this increase is very minor compared to global demand. There will be a complete brake on production growth in the first quarter (January–March) of the year 2026. This means that there will be no increase in production during this period and the market situation will be closely monitored.

Difficulties may increase for India

OPEC Plus is an alliance of 22 major oil producing countries of the world, which has a major impact on global oil production and prices. If production remains limited, international prices of crude oil may increase. For India, which imports about 85% of its oil requirements, the import bill is set to rise. Due to this, there is a possibility of increase in both fiscal deficit and inflation. Also, due to increase in demand for dollar, pressure on rupee may also increase.

America has recently imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, due to which India has had to stop the purchase of cheap Russian crude oil. Now Indian companies are preparing to source crude oil from alternative suppliers – like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, but the prices there are relatively high.

According to experts, if OPEC Plus limits the increase in production and reduces imports from Russia, then in the coming months India may see an increase in petrol and diesel prices, increase in inflation and weakening of the rupee.

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Russian Crude Oil: The intentions of US President Donald Trump, who is trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war, are now showing results. After American sanctions, India has now gradually started reducing the purchase of cheap crude oil from Russia. After buying oil at concessional rates for almost three years, Indian oil companies may now have to pay higher prices for oil.

great dependence on Russia

HMEL, a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Mittal Group, has announced that it will no longer buy crude oil from Russia. HMEL has become the first Indian company to formally announce stop buying oil from Moscow after US sanctions.

India imports about 86 percent of its oil needs. By mid-2022, Russia had become India’s largest oil supplier and was supplying about one-third of the oil to India at cheap prices. India was importing about 1.75 million barrels of oil daily from Russia, which mainly included companies like Rosneft and Lukoil.

What will be the effect?

Recently America has imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This has had a direct impact on shipping, insurance and trading networks. Banks have now become cautious about these transactions, due to which transaction risk and low profits have become a challenge for Indian companies. Market experts say that now volatility in crude oil prices may increase. According to Rahul Khatri, VP (Commodities), Mehta Equities, due to US sanctions, a situation of uncertainty has arisen in global oil supply.

At the same time, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, warned that the increase in oil prices could have a direct impact on India’s inflation. He said that “India will have to pay higher prices for oil imports, which may increase economic pressure.” Meanwhile, Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation have stopped new purchases from Russia, while Bharat Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery have started increasing imports from the US and Gulf countries.

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