Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting India on October 4 and this visit of about 30 hours is considered very important for Global Politics and Trade. This will be his first visit to India after the Ukraine War, in which major decisions on Trade Agreements and Defense Cooperation are possible. In such a situation, the eyes of the world are on which direction India will move amidst Geopolitical Tensions, Tariffs War and changing Global Alliances. Trade Tariffs have been the most important aspect of this whole story. In April, additional tariffs were imposed on more than 100 countries including India and due to buying discounted crude oil from Russia, the pressure of 50% extra tariffs on India increased further. US President Trump continues to warn that India will face severe punishment if it increases trade with Russia. For this reason, India reduced oil purchases from Russia to a great extent, whereas this trade used to give Indian companies a profit of more than Rs 1 lakh crore every year and the Rupee-Ruble Settlement also strengthened the foreign reserve. Now the future of Russian Oil Purchase is also in trouble. Trade numbers of India and Russia also show a big difference. India’s exports to Russia are only US$4.9B while imports reach US$63.8B. With 80–90% of trade in commodities like Crude Oil and Fertilizers, the trade deficit increases manifold. If we look at India-US trade, Export is US$87.3B and Import is US$41.5B, which makes US India’s largest and high-value trade partner. Despite this, India is working on creating new trade alliances. After the Shanghai Summit, there have been signs of improvement in India-China economic relations and regulations are being eased for Chinese firms in many sectors, and work is also going on to increase India’s exports in IT and Biomedicine.

Petrol and Diesel may soon become much cheaper, because the big estimate of Global Bank JP Morgan has come out. According to the bank, in the next three years the world supply of oil is going to exceed its demand. For this reason, there will be excess Brent Crude Oil in the market, due to which its prices may fall by 50% to around $30 by the end of FY 2027. This estimate has come at a time when India is the second largest oil importer in the world. The Indian economy will directly benefit from the huge fall in prices. India’s crude oil import bill in the year 2024 is more than ₹12 lakh crore. If Brent Crude comes to $30, India can get huge savings of about ₹6 lakh crore. The biggest reason for this Demand-Supply imbalance is the strong production capacity of Non-OPEC+ countries. By 2027, almost half of the new supply coming to the market will be from outside OPEC+ countries. Due to this, global inventories are filling up rapidly. This year the world’s oil stock has increased at the rate of 1.5 million barrels per day, of which about 1 million barrels are stored in ships and China’s reserves. If Brent Crude falls to $30, India, the government and the common man will get huge benefits.

Tension in the Middle East has reached its peak after Israel’s missile attack in Tehran. Its effect is also visible on oil prices globally. In just two days, the price of Brent crude increased by $ 10 per barrel to $ 75. If the prices of crude oil are increased for a long time, then oil marketing companies will have to increase the prices of petrol and diesel. This can also make transport, food and drink items, and other items expensive. Investors are afraid that if the oil becomes expensive then the cost of companies will increase, profits will decrease.