Exit Polls: Exit polls for the assembly elections of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry have come out. Meanwhile, a big question is arising in the minds of people that how are exit poll estimates made and how expensive is its process? Exit polls are not just graphics seen on television, but behind them there is a huge and data-based operation, in which thousands of people and crores of rupees are spent.

How do exit polls work?

Exit polls are conducted right outside the polling stations on the day of voting. As soon as the voter comes out after casting his vote, a surveyor goes to him and answers some questions. In these questions, some basic information is collected so that it can be known who the voter has voted for. However, these results are not released immediately. According to the rules set by the Election Commission of India, the results of the exit poll can be shown only when all the phases of voting are completed. This is so that it does not have any impact on the voters in the ongoing elections.

Story behind the survey

This process is not something to be done by guesswork. This is a very thoughtfully designed statistical process. Polling agencies first select a sample of some selected seats in a state or across the country. After this, special polling booths representing different social and geographical groups are selected within these seats.

The data collected is analyzed using software and statistical models. To make estimates, all the factors like caste composition, urban-rural difference, age group and voting trends are considered. Despite this, exit polls are only estimates, not a firm guarantee.

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How much does an exit poll cost?

Conducting an exit poll is not a cheap task. For this, thousands of trained field workers have to be deployed at hundreds of places. These workers have to be given training, transportation arrangements, accommodation and daily allowance. The cost of all these things increases very rapidly. The biggest reason for increasing expenses is the size of the sample. A survey involving 50,000 to 70,000 voters may cost a few crores of rupees. But when the sample size increases to several lakhs, the budget also increases rapidly.

Estimated cost of conducting exit poll

The cost of conducting a detailed exit poll for a large-scale election like Lok Sabha can range from Rs 10 crore to Rs 30 crore. The cost of a small scale survey involving about 70,000 people can range from Rs 2.5 crore to Rs 3 crore. With this, the cost of medium sized operations can be between Rs 5 crore to Rs 10 crore. On an average, the cost of collecting and processing data per voter ranges between ₹300 to ₹800.

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