The ongoing war between Iran and America has not stopped, due to which the problems of gas and fuel are becoming deeper at the global level. Due to this geopolitical tension, the prices of crude oil are skyrocketing in the international market. This crisis has forced the whole world to think that how long will this limited black gold hidden within our earth be able to support us and what is its last date. Let us know.

How much earth’s treasure is left?

According to the research of scientists and geologists, there is still a considerable amount of crude oil present in the heart of the Earth. But a big twist in this story is that a large part of this oil is either hidden deep underground or is located in such inaccessible and complex areas where human access is not easy. Extracting oil from these hidden reserves is considered a very expensive task both technically and economically.

How many days of oil does the world have?

If the current rate of fuel consumption in the world is considered a yardstick, then the world is left with only proven reserves of oil that can be used for 40 to 50 years. If the figures are to be believed, we have about 47 to 50 years left on the basis of proven reserves. However, new discoveries in science, modern technologies and identification of new areas can definitely extend this time limit a little.

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Stores will remain untouched by human access

Experts claim that all the oil present on earth will never be completely exhausted. The main reason behind this is that many large reserves of oil are buried under the icy plains of Antarctica or the bottomless depths of the very deep ocean, which are far away from human reach. In future, if there is a shortage of oil, the prices will increase so much that people themselves will shift to alternatives like solar and wind energy.

In how many years is crude oil ready?

It takes millions and millions of years for nature to prepare this crude oil. This fuel is made from the remains of ancient animals and plants. When these remains sink deep underground, due to the extreme heat and immense pressure there, they gradually transform into liquid fuel. This is the reason why it is not possible for humans to make it again so quickly.

What is the speed of unbridled consumption?

In the last 150 years, human population has mercilessly exploited this natural resource for its comforts. Demand for petrol and diesel for vehicles, increasing production of plastic and continuous expansion of heavy industries have taken the consumption of crude oil to record levels. In comparison to the speed at which we are spending it, the pace of creating new alternatives appears to be very slow.

Countdown to gas and coal begins

Not only crude oil, but other fossil fuels are also on the verge of extinction. Looking at the current consumption rate, natural gas reserves may also be completely exhausted in the next 50 to 53 years. The only matter of relief is regarding coal, which is the longest lasting fossil fuel. It may take about 100 to 150 years for the coal reserves on Earth to be completely exhausted.

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US Iran War: Due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, oil supply is being adversely affected across the world. During this time, the Strait of Hormuz was badly closed, due to which the movement of oil came to a halt. This is being considered as the biggest supply shock till date. According to Reuters calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency and the US Department of Energy, more than 12 million barrels of oil supply is being affected daily. This is about 11.5% of the total demand of the world. According to this, about 624 million barrels have disappeared from the supply market in 52 days.

According to the IEA report, 4.5 million barrels of oil was lost due to the 1973 Arab oil ban. 5.6 million barrels of oil were lost during the 1979 Iran Revolution and 4.3 million barrels during the 1991 Gulf War. At present, not only crude oil but also natural gas, refined fuel (diesel, jet fuel) and fertilizers have been affected simultaneously.

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Impact on LNG and gas

Qatar’s LNG production has been affected due to the Middle East war. This is a large part of the world from where gas is produced. Today the world is more dependent on gas than before. There has been a shortage of jet fuel and diesel due to reduced production in Gulf refineries. Transport and aviation have been affected in many countries.

effect on prices

Due to the war, the price of oil has increased from $70 to approximately $95 per barrel. There is a possibility of this increasing further. During this period, countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE have also been affected. Due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz, they are also not able to export. There is a shortage of supply in Asia and Africa right from the beginning. Due to the current situation, pressure on the global market is increasing.

Oil supply is decreasing rapidly

Due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, the supply of oil is decreasing rapidly. The stock that was accumulated earlier is also on the verge of being exhausted. According to estimates, by the end of this month, around 650 million barrels of oil supply would have been lost. The daily supply of about 13 million barrels of oil has stopped. Apart from this, due to the American blockade imposed on April 13, there has been a further reduction of 1.3 million barrels per day, because Iran’s oil is not able to reach the market.

How big an impact has the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had on supply?

Oil export figures also clearly show how bad the situation is. By the end of March, there was a decline of 6.9 million barrels per day of crude oil sent by sea in the world. By April 20, it declined further by 1.8 million barrels per day. That means the overall supply has reduced by 8.8 million barrels per day as compared to earlier. If the situation continues like this, then this will be the lowest supply level after the Covid period of June 2020. Many countries have oil reserves, but even these cannot compensate for such huge and continuous losses. If these reserves are used now, more oil will be needed to replenish them later.

Is this crisis bigger than previous oil crises?

There was also an oil crisis in 1973, when about 7 percent of the world’s supply was lost. But at that time the situation could have been improved through talks. Today’s situation is different. Currently about 13 percent supply has been affected and this is a real disruption, which is not easy to fix quickly. The Middle East supplies about 30 percent of the world’s oil. If the situation worsens, this part may also be in danger. Even if the war ends quickly, it may take months or even years for supplies to return to normal.

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