India’s Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit of the central government has increased to Rs 9.76 lakh crore by the end of November, which is 62.3 percent of the annual budget target set for the financial year 2025-26, whereas this figure was 52.5 percent in the same period last year. The government has estimated the fiscal deficit for the current financial year to be 4.4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) i.e. Rs 15.69 lakh crore.

increase in fiscal deficit

According to the data of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG), the total income of the central government till November 2025 was Rs 19.49 lakh crore, which is 55.7 percent of the total budget estimate. Of this, Rs 13.94 lakh crore was received from tax revenue, Rs 5.16 lakh crore was received from non-tax revenue and Rs 38,927 crore was received as non-debt capital receipts. During the same period, the central government transferred Rs 9.36 lakh crore as share in taxes to the states, which is Rs 1.24 lakh crore more than last year.

The total expenditure of the central government till November stood at Rs 29.26 lakh crore, which is 57.8 percent of the annual budget estimate, which includes Rs 22.67 lakh crore revenue expenditure and Rs 6.58 lakh crore capital expenditure. The largest share in revenue expenditure was on interest payments, on which Rs 7.45 lakh crore was spent, while Rs 2.88 lakh crore was spent on subsidies.

What do experts say

Responding to these figures, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair said that in the current financial year, the gross tax revenue of the central government is likely to be short by about Rs 1.5 lakh crore as compared to the budget estimate, but this shortfall can be compensated by better performance of non-tax revenue and savings in revenue expenditure, due to which the risk of exceeding the fiscal deficit target seems to be limited at present.

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Electoral politics in India is constantly changing—and at the center of this change are direct cash transfer schemes to women. In Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar… Women-Centric Freebies have become the biggest weapon to win elections in almost every state. The question is whether this is really a Welfare Model or a way to hollow out the state treasury? In this video, we will understand in detail how Tamil Nadu and Karnataka not only increased women participation to 40% by providing Color TV, Mixer Grinder, LPG, Cycle and Maternity Support to women, but also made a big contribution in Industrial Growth. But when this model is being adopted as Direct Cash Transfer, many institutions including RBI have warned of financial danger. We will see how only 12 states together spent ₹1.68 lakh crore on these freebies. In Bihar alone, new cash schemes worth ₹33,000 crore will eat up 55% of the state’s total tax revenue (₹59,520 crore)—at a time when Bihar already has a debt of ₹4.06 lakh crore. Then we will look at Brazil’s Bolsa Familia—the world’s largest Conditional Cash Transfer Scheme—which not only reduced poverty but also increased votes, but increased the country’s debt to 80% of GDP and slowed down growth. So is Women Cash Transfer the future of Welfare or Fiscal Time Bomb? Watch the video to know the whole truth!

Fitch forecasts india gdp growth: Fitch Ratings have retained India’s credibility on ‘BBB-‘ with a stable landscape with a growth rate and strong financial position on the external front. The 50% US fee proposed on India is expected to have a slight negative impact on the 6.5 percent growth rate of its GDP (GDP) for the current financial year 2025-26. Fitch said, “If the proposed goods and service tax (GST) reforms are adopted, it will promote consumption and reduce some risks related to increase.”

The Center has proposed a rate of 40 percent for five to seven items as well as a second for five to seven items along with a bila-level tax structure of five and 18 percent for goods and services for the ministers set up on rationalization of GST rates. This proposal includes abolition of the existing 12 and 28 percent tax ‘slab’.

US agency seal on India’s growth

Fitch said, “India’s rating has its strong growth and solid external financial status.” BBB-“is the lowest investment category rating. This rating has come within a fortnight of ‘BBB’ by increasing India’s credit rating by the global rating agency S&P. It is worth noting that on August 14, S&P Global Ratings increased India’s credibility from ‘BBB-‘ to ‘BBB’. S&P has increased India’s credibility for the first time in 18 years.

Another global rating agency Morning DBRS had increased India’s rating to ‘BBB’ in May this year citing structural reforms. The agency has estimated to be 6.5 percent of the growth rate of GDP (GDP) in FY 2025-26, which is similar to the financial year 2024-25 and is above the average ‘BBB’ of 2.5 percent. It said that India’s economic scenario remains stronger than equivalent countries, although its pace has slowed down in the last two years.

Tariff will not affect

The agency said that it has estimated a growing capacity of 6.4 percent in the moderate period due to strong public capital expenditure, increase in private investment and favorable demographics. Fitch said, “If the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are adopted, it will boost consumption and reduce some risks related to growth.” The rating agency, however, has expressed concern over the fiscal front, citing high deficit and debt compared to the countries of the ‘BBB’ category.

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