Fittch Rating on India’s GDP: On the basis of the country’s favorable financial condition and strong domestic demand, the rating agency Fitch has increased India’s growth rate to 6.9 percent. Earlier this growth rate was 6.5 percent. The figures of these changes that came after the first quarter are quite important.

In its September global economic scenario (GEO), the rating agency said that there has been a rapid increase in economic activities between March and June quarters of the current financial year, and the actual GDP growth rate has increased from 7.4 percent of January-March to 7.8 percent on an annual basis. This is much higher than the 6.7 percent forecast in the Geo of June.

GDP’s high speed

Based on the results of April-June, the rating agency Fitch has revised its estimate for the financial year ended in March 2026 (FY 2025-26) from 6.5 percent to 6.5 percent of June. Fitch says that domestic demand will play a major role in promoting growth, as strong real income is increasing consumer spending and weakened financial situation will be compensated by investment.

Fitch has speculated that the annual growth in the second half of the financial year may be slow. Therefore, the growth rate in the next financial year 2026-27 is estimated to be reduced to 6.3 percent. Economy is running slightly above its capacity, so the growth rate in FY 2027-28 is likely to be reduced to 6.2 percent.

Consumer expenses may increase

The rating agency has said in its report that July industrial production figures and PMI survey are also indicating the strong economy of the country. Also, due to GST improvement, consumer expenses are expected to increase during FY 2026.

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Fitch forecasts india gdp growth: Fitch Ratings have retained India’s credibility on ‘BBB-‘ with a stable landscape with a growth rate and strong financial position on the external front. The 50% US fee proposed on India is expected to have a slight negative impact on the 6.5 percent growth rate of its GDP (GDP) for the current financial year 2025-26. Fitch said, “If the proposed goods and service tax (GST) reforms are adopted, it will promote consumption and reduce some risks related to increase.”

The Center has proposed a rate of 40 percent for five to seven items as well as a second for five to seven items along with a bila-level tax structure of five and 18 percent for goods and services for the ministers set up on rationalization of GST rates. This proposal includes abolition of the existing 12 and 28 percent tax ‘slab’.

US agency seal on India’s growth

Fitch said, “India’s rating has its strong growth and solid external financial status.” BBB-“is the lowest investment category rating. This rating has come within a fortnight of ‘BBB’ by increasing India’s credit rating by the global rating agency S&P. It is worth noting that on August 14, S&P Global Ratings increased India’s credibility from ‘BBB-‘ to ‘BBB’. S&P has increased India’s credibility for the first time in 18 years.

Another global rating agency Morning DBRS had increased India’s rating to ‘BBB’ in May this year citing structural reforms. The agency has estimated to be 6.5 percent of the growth rate of GDP (GDP) in FY 2025-26, which is similar to the financial year 2024-25 and is above the average ‘BBB’ of 2.5 percent. It said that India’s economic scenario remains stronger than equivalent countries, although its pace has slowed down in the last two years.

Tariff will not affect

The agency said that it has estimated a growing capacity of 6.4 percent in the moderate period due to strong public capital expenditure, increase in private investment and favorable demographics. Fitch said, “If the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are adopted, it will boost consumption and reduce some risks related to growth.” The rating agency, however, has expressed concern over the fiscal front, citing high deficit and debt compared to the countries of the ‘BBB’ category.

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World Bank Report on Pakistan: After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, bad news is coming for the neighboring country Pakistan on every front. On the one hand, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated the growth rate of Pakistan to be low, on the other hand the World Bank has given a big warning to Pakistan. The World Bank while warning said that in the current financial year, there will be a crisis of starvation in front of about one crore people. Along with this, poverty levels will also increase rapidly.

Prior to warning of poverty in Pakistan, the World Bank had estimated the economic pace to be 2.7 percent in its report. The reason for this is the World Bank held strict economic policies responsible in Pakistan.

1 crore people on the verge of starvation

According to the news of the Express Tribune, the World Bank has said in its report that Shahbaz Sharif’s government has also failed to meet its target of annual budget deficit and this is expected to increase Pakistan’s debt burden and more than GDP.

According to the report, the World Bank said that due to the weather, the entire agricultural products of Pakistan will be affected and major crops like rice, millet crops will be badly affected. It further states that about 1 crore people will reach the verge of starvation (in most rural areas) in Pakistan.

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Fitch cuts india growth estimates: India’s economic pace has been estimated to be slow between uncertainty and world trade tension due to American tariffs worldwide. After the American agency Moody, now rating AJC Fitch has also made a similar estimate about India’s GDP. On Thursday, Fitch Ratings have reduced the estimate of India’s GDP (GDP) growth rate for the current financial year 2025-26 to 6.4 per cent.

Global Economic Outlook In April 2025, Fitch Rating said that world growth could be reduced to below two percent this year. Whereas except for the era of epidemic, this will be the most dull speed after the year 2009. In March update, the rating agency Fitch said that this is an important risk in its estimate due to the US trade policy being more aggressive than expected. However, due to low dependence on external demand, India is left with some extent.

In its special quarter ‘update’ by the Global Economic Scenario (GEO), Renting Agency Fitch further said, “It is difficult to say anything about the American trade policy with full confidence. On a large scale, policy uncertainty, the possibilities of trade investment are damaging. Domestic property is decreasing due to fall in share prices and American exporters will have to face retaliation. ‘

Fitch cut the world growth estimates of 2025 in his GEO by 0.4 per cent in the month of March. The growth estimate of China and America decreased by 0.5 percent. The renting agency has reduced GDP growth 6.2 per cent for Financial Year 2024-25 in terms of India and GDP growth estimate for current financial year 2025-26 to 6.4 per cent.

The growth rate for the financial year 2026-27 has been retained at 6.3 percent. According to Fitch’s estimates, the US GDP growth rate is expected to remain positive at 1.2 percent by 2025. China’s growth rate is estimated to be below 4 percent this year and next year, while economic growth in the Euro field will remain below one percent.

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India-asa news: US President Donald Trump has announced a tariff on India. On April 2, how much this tariff will be will be, everyone’s eyes are on from Dalal Street to Mint Street, from boardroom to policy corridors. Trump has said many times before that India imposes the most tariffs compared to other countries, so America will also impose tariffs on India in the same proportion.

According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), India’s average tariff in 2023-24 was 12 percent, while the US had only 2.2 percent. In an interview to Breetbart News on March 19, Trump said, “I believe that India is going to cut its tariff soon, but from April 2 we will put as much tariff on them as they put on us.” Now the question arises that how much will this decision affect India? Let us know what effect it will have:

Learn what S&P Global’s report says

In the new report, S&P Global has said that India’s strong economy and low dependence on America can save it from the effects of Trump tariff. According to the report, the share of exports in India’s GDP is only 10 percent, which will limit the direct impact of tariffs.

Trump again reiterated the policy of ‘reciperook tariff’

However, it can definitely be seen on some sectors. The report of S&P states that India’s less business connectivity with the US reduces the risk risk, but can affect steel and chemical sectors. The rating agency also said that most of the Indian companies obtained by rating are capable of facing temporarily income loss.

Fittch: India protected from some extent tariff effect

Fittch has predicted India’s GDP growth rate of 6.5 percent in FY 2025-26. However, the agency has warned that if the American trade policies become more strict than expected, it can become a big risk for India’s economic growth.

According to FITCH, India’s business confidence remains strong, and according to the bank loan survey, the loan to the private sector is increasing by double digits. The agency believes that India’s economy is somewhat safe from the impact of American tariff policies due to low depending on external demand.

Moody’s: Steel, Auto and Chemical Sector most affected

According to the Moody’s Rating reports, the automotive, steel, chemicals and business areas of South and South-East Asia can become the biggest victims of the American tariffs. This may reduce the demand for these industries and increase the cost.

However, Moody’s said that mining, oil and gas, shipping, investment holding companies and agricultural and protein sectors are the most capable of tolerating this effect.

Negative impact on Indian growth rate

According to Goldman Sachs, the tariff of Trump may get a shock of 10 to 60 basis points (BPS). The report said that India’s gross export to the US is only 2% of GDP, which is the lowest in the emerging markets. However, if the US implements global tariffs to all countries, then the impact of India’s domestic economic activity on the final demand of America can be doubled. This can affect the Indian GDP growth rate from 0.1% to 0.6%.

America can impose tariffs on India in three ways:

• Applying tariffs based on average tariff difference on all products imported from India.
• Profits equal to India’s tariff on every product.
• Applying non-tariff measures, such as administrative obstacles, import license conditions, etc.

Goldman Sachs believes that any of these ways can affect India’s economy, but India’s trading relations with America being comparatively limited may be less than in other countries.