RBI Financial Stability Report: Despite global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the Indian economy is likely to remain on a strong growth path, supported by strong domestic demand, controlled inflation and balanced macroeconomic policies. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has issued its latest financial stability report It said the country’s domestic financial system remains strong, with scheduled commercial banks having adequate capital and cash reserves, asset quality improving and profitability strong.

India’s growth will continue

According to the central bank, favorable financial conditions, healthy balance sheets and relatively low volatility in markets have underpinned this strength, although uncertainties related to global trade remain a near-term risk.

RBI’s stress tests show that even in adverse circumstances, banks are able to absorb potential losses and their capital will remain well above the regulatory minimum level.

India’s strong finance system

Along with this, mutual fund companies, clearing corporations, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and insurance sectors are also in a strong position due to adequate capital, stable income and better asset quality. This assessment reflects the overall assessment conducted by a sub-committee of the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC), which confirms the strength of the Indian financial system and risks to financial stability.

Keep an eye on the increasing pressure in the loan book

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has advised financial institutions giving small amounts of loans to be cautious about possible pressure in their loan books. Central Bank released for financial year 2024-25 ‘Trends and Progress in Banking’ The report said that the microfinance segment has faced challenges in recent quarters, the main reason for which is the increasing debt burden on borrowers.

According to RBI, in the current financial year the pace of loan distribution in the southern states, especially Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, has been relatively weak. This report has come at a time when many policy and regulatory steps have been taken affecting the industry in these states. The central bank said that even though several initiatives have been taken by the industry to improve performance, regulated entities need to maintain close monitoring given the possibility of asset quality pressure in this segment going forward. RBI indicated that paying special attention to cautious credit distribution and risk management in the microfinance sector will be important in the times to come.

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India’s GDP Growth 2026: India, which has now become the fourth largest economy in the world, seems to be on the path to maintaining a strong position in the year 2026. The country’s economic fundamentals remain strong due to favorable factors such as strong economic growth, low inflation and a strong banking system. To maintain the fast economic growth seen in the year 2025, a concrete outline of reforms has been prepared by the government.

The BJP-led central government is expected to announce new measures in the upcoming Union Budget to boost ease of living and doing business as well as encourage capital spending and private investment, so that India remains an attractive investment destination amid global tariff and geopolitical uncertainties.

GDP speed reached 8.2 percent

According to the data based on the base year 2011-12, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) has increased in consecutive quarters and it reached 8.2 percent in the second quarter of the financial year 2025-26. At the same time, by the end of the year, retail inflation came below the lower limit of Reserve Bank of India of two percent, which is a sign of stability in prices. According to the government, with a GDP of US $ 4.18 trillion, India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth largest economy. It is estimated that by 2030, GDP may increase to 7.3 trillion dollars, due to which India may overtake Germany to reach third place in the next two and a half to three years. The government says the current macroeconomic situation reflects a rare and strong period of high growth and low inflation.

The government is also working on changing the base year for national accounts from 2011-12 to 2022-23 to address concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the GDP calculation methodology. On the currency market front, the rupee remained under pressure due to outflow of foreign portfolio investment, although the volatility of the rupee in November was less as compared to the previous month. According to the assessment of the Reserve Bank of India, despite the challenging and uncertain environment at the global level, the Indian economy showed remarkable resilience in 2025 and the growth momentum remained intact throughout the year.

This growth was mainly driven by strong domestic demand, especially rural consumption, moderation in inflation and steady growth in investment. On the supply side, the services sector continued to expand, while the manufacturing sector also made a strong comeback after lagging earlier, although there were some signs of moderation at the end of the year. The agricultural outlook remained supportive, with better kharif production and adequate foodgrain stocks helping to contain price pressures. In view of these positive signs, RBI has increased the GDP growth estimate for the financial year 2025-26 to 7.3 percent.

What are the claims of big agencies?

International agencies like World Bank, IMF, Moody’s, OECD, Fitch and S&P have also adopted an optimistic stance regarding India’s economic prospects. Experts believe that even though there may be a slight slowdown in the growth rate in the future, the economy will remain strong due to strong domestic fundamentals, favorable financial conditions and ongoing reforms. However, global trade uncertainties and their impact on exports are being seen as a challenge. In such a situation, early completion of the proposed India-US trade agreement can give additional boost to exports and the overall economy.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is widely expected to take new steps to deepen reforms and boost economic activity in the Union Budget to be presented in February. Announcements of billions of dollars of investment in recent years by global companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google, as well as expansion plans by Apple, Samsung and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, reflect India’s strong investment prospects. According to experts, free trade agreements, reduction in GST rates, new labor laws and the government’s focus on capital expenditure are expected to further strengthen the Indian economy in the coming years.

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GDP Base Year Change: The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on Monday said it will release a new series of key macroeconomic data on retail inflation, national accounts and industrial production next year, with the base year changed. The ministry said in the statement that it will release a new series related to retail inflation and national accounts based on Consumer Price Index in February 2026. Whereas the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) will be released in May 2026.

According to the official statement, a consultation workshop will be organized on Tuesday regarding the change in the base year of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Production Index (IIP).

Ministry statement

Before this, the first workshop was organized in Mumbai on 26 November. The ministry said that the base year of the new series of retail inflation will be 2024 and it will be released on February 12, 2026. At the same time, the data related to national accounts will be released on February 27, 2026, considering the financial year 2022-23 as the base year.

Apart from this, the base year of the new series of IIP will also be 2022-23. Which will be released on May 28, 2026. The ministry said that the main objective of the consultation workshop on change in base year is to share the methodological and structural changes proposed under the base year revision of GDP, CPI and IIP and to receive suggestions and comments from the participants.

The base year of inflation will be 2024

This will help users understand the changes in the revised series. The workshop will see participation from eminent economists, experts from financial institutions and banking sector, case experts, users of key statistical data and senior officials of Central and State Governments.

In this workshop, Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog Suman K. Berry will attend as the chief guest. Apart from this, Chief Economic Advisor V. Ananth Nageswaran, Ministry Secretary Saurabh Garg and Central Statistics Director General N. Of. Santoshi will also be present.

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ABP Entrepreneurship Conclave: Speaking on the goal of making India a developed nation by 2047, Chief Economic Advisor V. Ananth Nageswaran at ABP News’ Entrepreneurship Conclave clearly said that for this, India will have to continuously work on a clear, long-term and practical strategy. He said that in the last few years, the government has made many major reforms in the direction of making ease of doing business easier. The GST system has been simplified, changes have been made in labor laws and the tax structure has been made more transparent, so that investor confidence increases and economic activities can be accelerated. He believes that the effect of these reforms will be visible gradually and it will not come in one stroke.

Why no trade deal with America yet?

On the question asked about the manufacturing sector, he said that the government’s schemes like PLI (Production Linked Incentive) are often compared with China, but the circumstances of India and China are different. China adopted a different model decades ago, whereas India is moving forward with balance in a democratic system. He said that the manufacturing sector in India has now become stable and it is creating a strong base. It is not necessary that India will have to adopt the same model as China, rather India will have to make a path according to its strengths.

On the ongoing uncertainty regarding the India-US trade deal, the Chief Economic Advisor clearly said that only the Commerce Ministry can give the final information in this regard. The common citizen can only hope. On the issue of tariff, he said that when reciprocal tariff of 25 percent was imposed for the first time, the industry was already mentally prepared for it. That means it was not completely unexpected. Global trade has become extremely complex today and every country is giving priority to its own interests.

fall in rupee

On the question asked about the decline in rupee, V. Ananth Nageswaran pointed towards an important economic fact. He said that usually when a country wants to strengthen its currency, it increases interest rates. But the situation is different in case of India. History is witness to the fact that when the conditions related to savings and current accounts change in a country, the currency comes under pressure. He indicated that the weakness of the rupee should not be viewed only from a negative perspective, but it is important to understand the broader economic context behind it.

Regarding Indian economy and employment, he said that there is no situation of jobless growth in India. As evidence of this, he said that the demand for MNREGA has decreased in the last one year, which shows that other employment opportunities have increased in rural areas. Apart from this, about 1.5 crore new jobs have been added in the formal sector in the last two years. He believes that India can further strengthen employment generation by increasing manufacturing and exports.

AI

He talked about adopting a balanced approach regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI). He said that AI is still in its initial stages and it is important to discuss both its positive and negative aspects. AI can become a challenge for employment in some areas, but there are many areas where there is no alternative to AI, like construction, plumbing, manual skills etc. He said that the government itself is taking many initiatives regarding AI, but the focus should be that technology should complement human labour, not replace it.

On Indian economy reaching close to 4 trillion dollars and comparison with China, he said that in March 2025, India’s economy was about 3.9 trillion dollars. The weakness of the rupee has affected the figures in dollar terms. The world is changing rapidly and in such a situation India will have to pay more attention to investment, research and development and structural reforms. He especially stressed the need for reforms in land and labor reforms, power generation and distribution.

In the end, he said that to achieve the goal of a developed India, economic policies alone will not be enough, but equal attention will have to be paid to the physical and skill development of the young population. Strong youth power, stable policies, continuous reforms and strategies in tune with global changes—these are the foundations on which India can become a developed nation by 2047.

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India At 2047: India is today counted among the fastest growing economies of the world. Despite high global tariffs, fears of an economic recession and geopolitical pressures, India’s GDP growth has maintained momentum. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had recently said in a conclave that the Indian economy has a strong capacity to withstand global turmoil. He clarified that if India has to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, then at all costs the GDP growth rate will have to be maintained at an average of 8 percent or above.

The Finance Minister said that India faces a dual challenge – on one hand, achieving the goal of ‘Developed India’ by 2047 and on the other hand, strengthening self-reliance. Similarly, Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has also reiterated that India has the potential to become a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2047.

Growing global confidence in India’s economy

Recent reports from RBI, SBI and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have further strengthened India’s economic prospects. ADB has increased India’s GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2025-26 from 6.5 percent to 7.2 percent. At the same time, RBI estimates that the growth in the current financial year can be between 6.5 to 7.5 percent. RBI has increased the GDP growth estimate for 2025-26 from 6.8 percent to 7.3 percent. If this pace continues, India’s GDP may cross the $4 trillion mark by 2026.

Trust in international institutions is also continuously increasing. According to IMF, India’s GDP growth rate may be 6.6 percent in 2026, while the World Bank says that between 2025 and 2027, India will remain the fastest growing large economy in the world. Some reports have predicted GDP growth to be 7.5 percent or more in the second half of 2026.

Conditions for becoming a developed India by 2047

According to experts, if India has to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, it will have to maintain a sustained annual GDP growth of 8 to 9 percent. With this, the per capita income will have to be increased to about $18,000 per year. According to NASSCOM report, if India maintains a sustained growth of 8–10 percent, this target can be achieved.

India’s youth population is a big strength. Working age population, initiatives like Digital India and rapid expansion of technology are strengthening the country’s growth pace.

These sectors will play the most important role

Many sectors will play a decisive role in achieving the goal of 2047, the major ones being-

• electronics
• automobile
• Energy (especially renewable energy)
• Semiconductor
• defense sector
• service area
• Pharma
• electric vehicle

Schemes like GST reforms, Make in India and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) have given additional impetus to the Indian economy.

What do experts say?

On this subject, IIMC Professor Shivaji Sarkar says that at present India’s GDP growth rate remains around 6 percent, although there are fluctuations in it. He told that earlier this rate had also reached close to five and a half percent. According to him, GDP growth depends on many factors, including weather, global conditions and domestic economic conditions, so it is not easy to keep it stable.

Professor Shivaji Sarkar also said that the fall in rupee affects the domestic economy, the impact of which is visible from technology to manufacturing sector. In such a situation, a balanced and stable growth rate is very important, so that the diverse country can achieve its long-term economic goals. He said that if India has to maintain a strong position at the global level, it will need a higher and more sustained growth rate.

He further said that by 2047, major changes will have taken place in the global economic scenario and currently a downward trend in growth rate is being seen across the world. In such an environment, if India is successful in maintaining a growth rate of 12 percent for a long time, then it is possible to become a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2047.

Manufacturing and technology will change the face of India

The demand for semiconductors in India is estimated to increase from $33 billion by 2022 to $117 billion by 2030. There has been tremendous growth in electronics manufacturing—today 99.2 percent of smartphones sold in India are made domestically, compared to only 26 percent a decade ago.

Amidst global tensions, the defense sector has also become very strategically important. In the last 10 years, the defense budget has doubled to Rs 6.81 lakh crore. In the financial year 2024-25, 92 percent of the contracts in the defense sector have been awarded to domestic industries, due to which the dependence on imports has reduced.

Green energy and EV sector will get new momentum

India recorded a record 29.5 GW addition to renewable energy capacity in 2024-25, taking the total capacity to 220 GW. India will require 50–70 GWh of battery capacity every year in the coming years, creating huge opportunities in areas such as cell manufacturing, raw materials and recycling. Sales of electric vehicles have also increased rapidly—wherein the number was around 50,000 in 2016, it will reach 20 lakh in 2024.

Focus on government investment and infrastructure

The seriousness of the government can be gauged from the fact that between 2024 and 2026, Rs 30–33 lakh crore has been invested in government infrastructure. Capital expenditure increased by 37 percent in FY 2024, while the capex budget for 2025 has been kept at Rs 11.1 lakh crore. It is expected to increase further in 2026.

Manufacturing will become a global power house

Experts believe that the role of manufacturing sector will be most important in becoming a developed India. By 2047, its contribution to GDP may increase from 17 percent to 25 percent. According to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and venture capital firm Z47, India’s manufacturing strategy is no longer limited to assembly only but is moving towards technology-based development.

Year Ender 2025: Whenever the country’s economic growth slows down or inflation starts getting out of control, then the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) takes steps to keep the economy stable. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI meets every two months to review the situation of inflation, interest rates and GDP, on the basis of which it is decided how much cash flow should be in the market and how to balance economic activities by reducing or increasing the cost of loans.

When and how much rate cut in 2025?

In the year 2025, giving great relief to the people, RBI reduced the repo rate by a total of 125 basis points from 6.5% to 5.25%. It was cut by 25 basis points in February, then by 25 basis points in April, twice as much as expected in June i.e. 50 basis points and again by 25 basis points in December. The general public directly benefits from the reduction in repo rates – home and car loans become cheaper, EMIs reduce and the purchasing power of consumers increases, thereby increasing demand in the market.

At the same time, the cost of capital for companies reduces, which improves their cash flow. However, experts believe that reduction in interest rates can sometimes increase capital outflow, because when interest rates in other countries are high, foreign investors prefer to invest money there, which can further increase the weakness of the rupee.

What is the impact of RBI’s action?

Dr. Aastha Ahuja, economist at Aryabhatta College, Delhi University, says that RBI policies have a direct impact on the direction of the stock market—changes in interest rates, availability of liquidity and investor sentiments, all three together decide the movement of the market. While the cash flow in the market increases due to reduction in repo rate, economic activities accelerate due to cheaper loans for companies and consumers.

But it also impacts the balance of payments (BOP), inflation and the strength of the rupee, which has already weakened and gone above 90 against the dollar. According to Ahuja, while large cap shares are performing well in the stock market at present, mid-cap and small-cap sectors are under pressure, the main reason for which is lack of demand in the market. In view of this entire situation, RBI has to run its monetary policy in a very balanced manner so that while keeping inflation under control, economic growth also gets momentum and the fall of rupee can also be stopped.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a program that today India is creating a new identity in the world and is moving forward with confidence. He said that long-term slavery had weakened India’s self-confidence, but now the country is coming out of this mentality and moving towards progress with new resolutions and new energy.

India is coming out of slavery mentality: PM Modi
Prime Minister Modi said that no country can move forward without self-confidence and India stands today on the strength of that self-confidence. He said that the mentality of slavery was the biggest obstacle in the path of India becoming a developed nation, but the government is continuously making efforts to free itself from this thinking. He said that India is now moving forward with the mindset of change and new history is being written in every field.

Mention of improvements in space sector
In his address, PM Modi mentioned the changes in the space sector. Speaking at the Hindustan Times Summit, he said that earlier the space sector was completely under government control, but the government made reforms and opened it for private companies. This decision has opened doors to new opportunities from space research to satellite launch and its results are clearly visible today.

Prime Minister spoke on the economy
Talking about the country’s economy, the Prime Minister said that the recently released GDP figures show that India is emerging as a strong player in the global economy. He said that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 8%, which is not just a figure but an indication of India’s strong economic condition. He said that today India is making an important contribution to the economic growth rate of the world.

India’s role in the global scenario
Prime Minister Modi said that when the world is talking about recession, India is writing the story of development. When there is a crisis of trust in the world, India is becoming a pillar of trust. And when the world is moving towards division, India is working to build bridges. He said that India has now become not just a watching nation but a nation giving direction to the world.

Baba Saheb Ambedkar remembered
In his message, the Prime Minister also paid tribute to the creator of the Constitution, Dr. Bhimrao Ambedkar. He said that today is Baba Saheb’s Mahaparinirvan day and without his thinking and his contribution, the democratic structure of India would have been incomplete.

Next 25 years will be decisive – PM Modi
At the end of the message, Prime Minister Modi said that we are standing in an era when a quarter of the 21st century has ended. He expressed confidence that the coming 25 years will be decisive for India and this is the time when India is taking the biggest steps towards becoming a developed nation. He said that our direction is clear, our pace is constant and our intention is India first.

India’s economy grew at a robust 8.2 percent in the July–September quarter, the highest in the last six quarters. Last year in the same quarter the GDP was 5.6 percent and in April-June it was recorded at 7.8 percent. Economists had estimated growth at 7.3 per cent, while the RBI had pegged it at 7 per cent, but the actual figures exceeded these estimates. The reasons behind this sharp growth are relief in GST, increased demand in the market before festivals, increase in expenditure in rural areas and strength in many sectors. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had earlier said that the GST cut would leave people with additional savings of around Rs 2 lakh crore, and the second quarter results reflect the same effect. Sector wise, primary sectors like agriculture and mining grew by 3.1 percent. The agriculture sector has grown at the rate of 3.5 percent. The manufacturing sector has registered an impressive growth of 9.1 percent in this quarter, compared to just 2.2 percent last year. The service sector also performed strongly, with trade, hotels and transport seeing growth of 7.4 percent, financial and real estate 10.2 percent and public administration and defense 9.7 percent. This video will explain to you every important aspect of India’s GDP growth in detail—why the figures increased, which sectors made the biggest contribution, where the economy is likely to head next and how all this could impact the global landscape.

India’s GDP Growth: The Indian economy is growing at a fast pace and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated the GDP growth rate to be 6.6 percent for the financial year 2025-26. In its report, IMF has said that GST reforms are expected to help India counter the impact of 50 percent higher tariff imposed by the US.

The IMF issued the statement after its Board of Executive Directors completed its annual assessment of India. It was said that India’s economy is continuously performing better. After a growth rate of 6.5 percent in FY 2024-25, real GDP grew at 7.8 percent in the first quarter of FY 2025-26.

Ability to maintain economic growth

IMF says that India’s ambition to become a developed economy in the future can be strengthened by comprehensive structural reforms. This will pave the way for long-term high growth rates. IMF also said that despite external challenges, domestic conditions remain favorable, due to which economic growth is expected to remain strong.

According to the IMF, even if the US’s 50 percent tariff continues for a long time, real GDP growth could still be 6.6 percent in fiscal year 2025-26. However, it is expected to decline to 6.2 percent in the financial year 2026-27.

Positive impact of GST reforms

The IMF believes that the GST reforms and the resulting reduction in tariff rates will help mitigate the negative impact of US tariffs. The US has imposed a 50 percent tariff on India, which also includes a 25 percent duty on energy imports from Russia.

Future risks and opportunities

The IMF warned that there are many risks to the economic outlook in the near future.

positive side:

• Implementation of new trade agreements can boost exports, private investment and employment.
• Rapid implementation of structural reforms will provide additional support to the growth rate.

negative side:

• Financial conditions may become tighter as global economic disruption increases.
• Prices of raw materials may increase.
• There may be a negative impact on trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth.

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