Strait of Hormuz: The American and Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response have created problems for the entire world. The situation is that global oil reserves have reached the lowest level in 8 years.

According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, where the world had 105 days of oil stock in February, it has now come down to 101 days. It is expected to fall for 98 days by the end of May.

Oil reserves are decreasing rapidly

Since the end of February, that is, since the war in Iran started, more than 100 crore (1 billion) barrels of oil have been used from reserves around the world. At present, there is a shortage of 10-13 million barrels of oil every day at the global level. As far as India is concerned, at present only 3.37 million tonnes of crude oil is left in the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

The sharp decline in inventory has worried both the government and the energy market. Due to closure of Hormuz for almost two months, supply of more than one billion barrels has been damaged so far. Now if it remains closed for a few more days, the situation may go from bad to worse. Let us tell you that Hormuz is a very important ‘check point’ of the world, through which about 20 percent of the global oil trade and 20 percent of the LNG passes.

Experts gave warning

According to a Bloomberg report, experts and international agencies like IEA and IMF have given serious warnings. They say that if Hormuz remains closed till September, crude oil prices may reach $167 to $200 per barrel.

Due to energy shortage and rising prices, the world’s GDP may suffer a loss of more than Rs 3.5 lakh crore. This may also cause food crisis in the coming 6-7 months because gas is used in making fertilizer. Apart from this, the prices of ship insurance and freight transportation can also increase exponentially.

JPMorgan has also warned that if Hormuz remains closed further, the OECD inventory could reach ‘operational stress level’ as early as next month and is expected to fall to ‘operational minimum’ level by September.

Which countries are most at risk?

• India imports 88 percent of its oil and 80 percent of LPG requirement. Due to stoppage of supply, there is a danger of severe shortage of fuel in India and increase in inflation.
• China, Japan and South Korea are also completely dependent on the Gulf countries for their energy needs. The energy security of countries like Japan and South Korea directly depends on this route of Hormuz.
• Bangladesh and Pakistan are also not free from danger. There are already long queues at petrol pumps here. Amidst the severe shortage of fuel, these countries are facing difficulties in producing electricity. In such a situation, there is a possibility of industrial production coming to a halt.

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The long-running Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between India and the European Union have finally been completed. This historic deal is being called the Mother of all Trade Deals, because through it a huge market consisting of about 25 percent of the world’s global GDP and about 2 billion consumers has been connected. On Monday (26 January 2026), Commerce Secretary Rajesh Aggarwal confirmed this much-awaited deal, while on Tuesday (27 January 2026) Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced it. This deal is considered a major turning point in India’s global economic strategy.

Negotiations on a free trade agreement between India and the European Union first began in 2013, but the process was stalled due to several differences. The talks were restarted in June 2022 and now after a long wait of almost nine years, this agreement has come out in its final form. This agreement is also special because under this, India will get direct and easy trade entry into the markets of 27 European countries. This is expected to further strengthen India’s role in the global supply chain.

EU becomes India’s largest trade partner

The European Union remained India’s largest trading partner in the financial year 2023-24. During this period, the total trade between India and EU reached 135 billion dollars. After the implementation of the new free trade agreement, there is a possibility of rapid growth in this trade.

Duty-free access to more than 97 percent Indian products

Indian exporters are going to get the biggest benefit of this agreement. According to reports, after the implementation of FTA, more than 97 percent of Indian products will get entry into the European market duty-free or at very low duty. Labour-intensive sectors like textile, leather, jewellery, electronics and chemicals will benefit the most. Also, with the end of the special duty-free benefits given to countries like Bangladesh, the competitive position of Indian companies will be further strengthened.

Strategic balance between Trump’s tariff policy

The India-EU Free Trade Deal has come at a time when US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have increased instability in global trade. America has imposed a tariff of up to 25 percent on Indian products and has also imposed an additional 25 percent penalty on the purchase of Russian oil. The European Union has also been affected by America’s steel and aluminum tariffs. In such a situation, this agreement between India and EU is being seen as a strategic balance against Trump’s tariff policy.

Prime Minister Modi said – This is not just business, it is partnership

Prime Minister Narendra Modi described this agreement as not just a trade agreement but a victory for shared values. He said that this agreement is an ideal example of partnership between the two largest democratic economies of the world. According to the Prime Minister, this deal represents 25 percent of global GDP and almost one-third of global trade and also strengthens democracy, rule of law and international cooperation.

Free trade zone of 2 billion people

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described this agreement as historic and said that history has been made today. He said that India and EU together have created a free trade zone of about 2 billion people and this is just the beginning. According to him, this agreement will give new heights to the India-Europe strategic partnership in the coming years and will play an important role in bringing stability to the global economy.

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