The politics of the country is at its peak regarding Bihar assembly elections. New surveys are also coming out on the day of this. Meanwhile, Amitabh Tiwari, founder of ASA India Company, stayed in Bihar for 10 days and tried to understand the situation going on very closely. During this, he maintained his focus on NDA, India alliance and Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj. Amitabh Tiwari spoke openly on Bihar’s politics on Bihar.

Meanwhile, the biggest question of this time in Bihar politics is whether Prashant Kishore (PK) party will be able to make a big impact or not. According to the discussion, a section of youth is attracted towards PK, but middle age and senior citizens are still in a position to flicker them. That is, they are just looking at at the moment.

Support Prashant Kishore’s party
According to the current survey, Prashant Kishore’s party is getting about 10-12% support in South Bihar (Bhojpur, Magadh, Munger, Bhagalpur), while this support is reduced to 8-10% in North Bihar (Purnia, Darbhanga, Kosi, Tirhut, Saran). This vote share keeps them in the discussion, but is much lower than 30-35% of the votes required to win a seat.

Impact of Grand Alliance vs NDA PK Factor
If you consider the last election (125 vs. 110 seats) as the basis, then this time there is no hope of major changes in the equation. Grand Alliance (RJD, Congress, etc.): Some seats in Magadh and Bhojpur may be reduced, but mild advantage in Munger and Bhagalpur is also possible. NDA (BJP-JDU) has a vote bank larger safe due to the ethnic equation (upper cast, Dalit, EBC). Overall, the biggest disadvantage can be to the Grand Alliance due to the arrival of PK. The reason is clear, whatever voter is angry with the current government, he usually goes towards the Grand Alliance, but due to PK, this vote can be distributed.

Seat equation and role of gardens
Prashant Kishore’s fate will depend to a large extent on how many strong rebel candidates they get from big parties (BJP, JDU, RJD, Congress). If a core voter comes with a rebel PK with a community (eg EBC, Brahmin, Rajput or Mahadalit), then the loss of NDA is also possible, but if we see the net effect, the Grand Alliance will get more shock.

What has changed in the caste equation?
Ethnic equations are always important in elections. In the current picture, the Muslim-Yadav (My vote bank) remains strong with the grand alliance. Upper cast, Dalit, EBC is largely with NDA. Koyri/Kushwaha society may break down a little bit. If the Grand Alliance takes the right candidate, then some part of this class can come towards them.

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Aimim in bihar election: The politics of Bihar has started turning once again. Before the proposed assembly elections in October-November 2025, while the leadership of NDA Nitish Kumar is in efforts to save power, the opposition grand alliance has also intensified. Meanwhile, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) MLA and state president Akhtarul Iman has said that the party has started preparations to form a third front. They allege that AIMIM has not received any clear answer from the Grand Alliance so far, and they will not wait anymore. This situation indicates the scattering of Muslim votes, which can directly go in favor of NDA.

Aimim disappointed with the Grand Alliance now in preparation for the third option
AIMIM MLA Akhtarul Iman has said that his party wanted to join the grand alliance to stop communal forces in Bihar. A proposal was also sent for this, but neither yes nor refusal. He said that now we will not wait for the answer of the Grand Alliance and are moving towards the third front. AIMIM has started election preparations at its level.

Secular front, AIMIM had a dent in 2020
In the 2020 assembly elections, AIMIM, along with Mayawati’s BSP, Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Omprakash Rajbhar’s Subhaspa and other parties, formed the Grand Democratic Secular Front. AIMIM contested 20 seats and won 5 seats, while BSP got 1 seat. These seats included Muslim -dominated seats of Seemanchal, where AIMIM had made a direct dent in RJD’s vote bank.

4 MLAs later joined RJD, now only Akhtarul Iman left
However, after winning the election, four of the five MLAs of AIMIM joined Tejashwi Yadav’s party RJD. Now the party has only one MLA Akhtarul Iman, who is also the state president of the party. Despite this, AIMIM has established itself as a strong Muslim voice in the Seemanchal region.

The sharing of Muslim votes can be a headache for the grand alliance
About 17 percent of the 243 assembly seats in Bihar are Muslims. Most of these have traditionally been voting for RJD. But with the active AIMIM, Muslim votes can be divided in many areas including Seemanchal. This can cause loss to the Grand Alliance and indirectly to the NDA.

Election equation changing status
Creating a third front of AIMIM can also completely change the electoral equation of Bihar, not just the creation of a new political axis. If Muslim votes are disintegrated, then this direct loss will be done to RJD and Congress, which are considered the basis of the Grand Alliance. In such a situation, the NDA can get the benefit of weak opposition.

How many seats in Bihar influence the influence of Muslims?
Out of 243 seats in Bihar, there are 47 seats where Muslims are in decisive role. The number of Muslims in 47 seats is 50%. At the same time, Muslim vote is around 40% in 11 seats. In such a situation, all the parties will not avoid wooing the Muslim vote bank at all.