China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: What the whole world is suspecting, has now been confirmed by Pakistan’s own economist. Earlier it was being told that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will change the fate of Pakistan. Whereas Pakistan’s well-known economist Dr. Qaiser Bengali exposed this and said that no significant investment came under this project. Gwadar Port is also not providing any benefit economically, although it was once described as the ‘heart’ of this plan.

CPEC could not become a gamechanger

In a podcast conversation with a Pakistani journalist, he even said that Pakistan’s economy is sinking day by day. Qaiser Bengali says, “First CPEC was being called a game-changer. Then SIFC, Green Initiative, Udaan Pakistan and now Minerals. These are just words. They have no real results.

Billions of dollars were spent in making it

CPEC was launched in 2013 with an initial investment plan of $46.5 billion. Later, as more projects were added over time, the plan was increased to $62 billion. However, now economists claim that no big investment has actually come. He said, “Apart from Lahore’s Orange Train, I don’t see anything else concrete under CPEC.” When asked whether the billions of dollars promised under CPEC were loans or investments? he said, “It was a mix of both, but nothing actually came.” Many MOUs were signed, but MOUs are not agreements – it is just a statement of intent, not an agreement.

What is CPEC?

Let us tell you that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) starts from Xinjiang in China and passes through the Khunjerab Pass in Northern Pakistan and reaches Gwadar Port in Balochistan. The purpose of making it was to strengthen the transportation network between the two countries so that investment opportunities in Pakistan also increase, infrastructure is strengthened, economic development is accelerated, and the energy crisis is helped in overcoming, but in reality nothing concrete has emerged. Dr. Bengali has even called it a ‘ghost path’.

What is the problem with Gwadar?

Kaiser Bengali said that there are still only four berths at Gwadar Port and no ships arrived last year. He told that when he was in Balochistan, he had gone to Gwadar, then the port gate was locked with a lock like a small suitcase and the guard had gone to his village.

Bengali, who has been an advisor to the Sindh Chief Minister, said Gwadar cannot become a transit or trade hub because its economic hinterland is more than 1,000 kilometers away. Stating the reality, he said, “We had imported three ships of wheat in 2008 just to prove that Gwadar was alive. Whereas there was no need for it in Gwadar. Then the wheat was brought from Gwadar to Karachi and Rs 2 billion was spent just in taking it to Karachi. If the goods had been unloaded directly in Karachi, Rs 2 billion would have been saved.”

The economist said that Gwadar is not economically feasible and this port can be possible only if it is connected to Lokandi and Helmand in Afghanistan and a special Afghan transit corridor is created. Till then, Gwadar may not be economically profitable. But looking at the current situation with Afghanistan, now this country does not want to import anything through Pakistan. Afghanistan now prefers Chabahar and the railway link between Chabahar and Afghanistan has been completed.

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Iranian President Masood Pageiyan has announced to strengthen friendship with Islamabad in his first visit to Pakistan. During this visit, there were several important agreements between Pakistan and Iran to increase trade and technical cooperation. Under this, Pakistani traders will now be able to send goods to Europe and Russia by the ground route of Iran. According to experts, this will be a faster and affordable option than on sea ships.

It is believed that this supply will be through the International North-South Transport Corridor (Instc), which starts from Mumbai port of India and goes to Russia and Europe via Iran. India and Russia are developing this corridor together, in which the Chabahar Port manufactured by India will have a central role.

China’s eye on connecting CPEC with Instc
China also wants to connect its CPEC project with the Instc so that its impact can increase further to Central Asia and Gulf countries. China wants to reduce its dependence on Malacca Strait, where the military presence of India and America is strong. China can give a strategic edge with this possible connection.

Target to take business up to $ 10 billion
Iran and Pakistan have decided that they will increase mutual trade from $ 3 billion to $ 10 billion. This decision is being considered a big step towards giving new heights to the economic relations of both countries.

Pakistan’s dual strategy
To welcome the Iranian President, Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif himself broke the protocol and reached Noor Khan Airbase. This is part of Pakistan’s strategic efforts, so that it wants to strengthen the relationship with Iran, making America happy. Apart from this, Pakistan wants Iran to control Baloch rebels working from its area, about which Pakistan claims that they get support from India.

Consent on Islamabad-Tehran-Estambul rail route
The 6,540 km long rail line has been agreed between Pakistan and Iran to Istanbul in Turkey via Tehran to Tehran. This journey will now be completed in only 10 days, which used to take 21 days from the first sea route.

The division of the railroad is as follows – 1990 km in Pakistan, 2603 km in Iran and 1950 km in Türkiye. This project started in 2009 but has not been completed yet. Now there is a plan to activate it again.

Danger bell for India – link to Gwadar and Chabahar
Pakistan is planning to connect Gwadar and Chabahar Port. Chabahar Port is built by India, while Gwadar is a project of China. Pakistan has proposed to connect the Iranian President with the silk route and has also negotiated on the Gwadar-fourth maritime trade. China is also building a naval base at Gwadar Port, which may increase security -related threats for India.

Pakistan Navy Crisis: Pakistan Navy is in deep crisis after Operation Sindoor. His warship fleet is outdated, the morale of the authorities is broken, and the number of current submarines is very low. Amidst India’s growing naval power, heavy pressure on Pakistan’s Navy is clearly visible. According to News18, sources say that the presence of the Pakistani Navy has now become almost negligible in the Arabian Sea strategically. Open-source reports and marine surveillance data have shown that most of the major warships stand at the Karachi naval base and are not active in the sea.

Repair failure and leadership crisis
Experts believe that the main reason for this situation is the limited ability to repair, the failure of the shipyard, the leadership crisis and the operation sindoor is the falling morale of the soldiers. This was the same operation in which the Indian armed forces targeted terrorist bases in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) in response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on 22 April.

Only two current submarines, training stalled
According to sources, at present, Pakistan’s Navy has only two active submarines. Everyone else is standing on the base and not active. The situation is so serious that training opportunities in the Navy have also decreased, as most ships are engaged in repair for a long time.

Ships are handed over to young officers who have been trained by training from Naval Academy which have been in a repair position for months. Due to this, an entire generation is getting prepared, which is not getting the real experience of working in the sea, which is affecting their efficiency.

India considers Pakistan’s water area as ’empty region’
Sources said that the Navy of Pakistan has either canceled or postponed its military exercises. At the same time, the Indian Navy has increased the scope of its patrolling and exercise and the Pakistani is looking at the maritime sector like an unrealistic area.

What is the reason for the repair crisis?

Old fleet, expensive repair
The major surface-wittings of the Pakistani Navy such as Type-21 frigate, which were taken from the Royal Navy of Britain in the 1990s, have now surpassed their service period. They often require more expensive repairs, but their parts have become rare and expensive because manufacturers have stopped production of these systems.

Ships purchased from many countries, different techniques
Pakistan has bought its warships from China, Türkiye, America and Britain. Every ship requires separate technical expertise, separate components reserves and special repair procedures. This diversity is overshadowing Pakistan’s Navy structure.

Technical problems in Chinese warships
Type-054A frigate in China found between 2021 and 2023, the radar and engine systems are having frequent technical malfunctions, due to which they often have to return to the shipyard.

Ship repair capacity limited, increased expenditure
Karachi Shipyard lacks the required diagnostic equipment and sugar software, which is disrupting the repair of Type-054A frigate. Efforts to create technical cooperation with China are also not able to succeed due to expensive cost and conditions of technical transfer.

What happened strategic effects?

Navy failed in the Arabian Sea
If the Navy of Pakistan does not exist firmly in the Arabian Sea, then the Navy of India is considering it as an empty area and increasing its practice and patrolling.

Strategic importance of Gwadar port declined
China has made large investments in Gwadar port and related projects. But if Pakistan cannot provide security, then the strategic value of these projects decreases greatly.

The trust of partner countries shake
The cancellation of naval exercises and unavailability of ships has damaged Pakistan as an incredible defense partner.