Gold price mcx: Gold prices crossed their all -time high 1 lakh per 10 grams in the month of April. However, after that there was a slight decline in gold, but this decline is not so much that gold is called cheaper.

Talking about Tuesday 6 May, even today, volatility and increased spot demand in the market against the dollar has put up the price of gold. Today, gold was trading at Rs 95,865 per 10 grams on the MCX Gold Index.

Who said the price of gold may fall 40 percent

Whereas, talking about the last one year, gold has given a tremendous return of 30 percent, while since 2001 its average annual return has been around 15 percent. Now in such a situation, John Mills, analyst of America’s research firm Morningstar, says that gold prices may fall by about 40 percent in the coming years. Let us know why experts are doing this.

Can the price of gold really come at 56000

John Mills, analyst of America’s research firm Morningstar, says that gold prices may fall by 40 percent in the coming years. If this happens, gold in India can fall directly to Rs 56,000 per 10 grams.

The major reasons behind this are being given. Among them, the first reason is, the supply means a tremendous increase in supply. Gold mining companies have made profits around the world and are now increasing production. In the second quarter of 2024, the mining profit had reached $ 950 an ounce and according to data so far the global gold reserve has increased by 9 per cent to 2.16 lakh tonnes.

The second major reason is the decrease in demand. According to the report of the World Gold Council, the central banks from all over the world are no longer in the mood to buy more gold. In the survey, 71 percent of the banks have said that they will either cut the purchase of gold or maintain the existing level.

The third major reason is, “peak” in the market means extreme level position. In 2024, merger and Acquisition (M&A) in the gold sector has increased by 32 percent. It indicates that companies are assuming that gold prices have reached their highest level.

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Gold is not called ‘sleeping monster’ like this. History is witness that gold stays in one range for many years and then suddenly runs fast. From October 2011 to October 2022, gold prices remained around $ 1,700 an ounce. But the situation changed from November 2022.

Gold ran away and reached $ 3,500 an ounce this month. This is the most expensive price ever. However, later it also saw a slight decline. The big thing is that Donald Trump and his decisions are a big reason somewhere behind both golden and expensive gold.

Gold prices had increased earlier also

By the way, there was a similar explosion between October 2018 and August 2020, when gold climbed from $ 1,130 an ounce to $ 1,984 an ounce, ie about 75 percent gained in just two years. This time the rise started in 2023, when gold jumped 13 per cent and the story was also repeated in 2024, this time with a gain of 27 per cent.

Gold prices increased due to trump

Now you are wondering how suddenly gold has increased so fast, then let me tell you, there are many reasons behind this, one of which has been the biggest reason, Trump’s new tariffs. In 2025, Trump’s tariff announcement further heated up the atmosphere. Trump announced the imposition of ‘recipe rice tariff’ on all countries, causing heavy pressure on global trade. Trade war and economic uncertainties supported gold and so far this year gold has jumped 25 percent.

But every speed also has a break somewhere. The same thing happened with gold. Gold reached $ 3,500 on April 22 and then suddenly it has fallen by $ 200 to about $ 3,300 an ounce. In India too, gold had touched a figure of 1 lakh for 10 grams of 24 carats on 22 April, which has now come up to 95,320.

How to break gold?

The question is big that if gold reached its all -time high due to Trump’s tariff policies, then how did his prices fall due to Trump? Actually, there are many reasons behind this. For example, Trump suddenly talked about strictly back on China. China is also taking steps to reduce trade war. With this, investors felt that the situation would not deteriorate anymore and the glow of gold faded a bit.

Apart from this, Trump also reduced pressure on Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, which reduced uncertainty on interest rates. The US inflation is also going down and the Federal Reserve is stepping down. When inflation and interest rates are stable, the glow of gold decreases slightly.

Dollar strength and cheaper gold

The strength of the dollar and gold prices is also very interesting. Right now the dollar index is below 100 in three years, which supported gold. But if the trade is more less and the dollar is strong, then the demand for gold may be weak. Also, America’s Treasury Yields, especially 10-ear yields, are also growing, which are alarm bells for gold.

Still nothing can be said

If economic conditions improve further, then investors can move towards risky but more returns. This can cause a decline in gold safety heaven demand. But the story does not end here. Trump’s decisions can turn into a moment, inflation may climb again, or a new geopolitical crisis may arise. If this happens, the price of gold can then touch the sky.

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