In America, President Donald Trump has indicated that he is considering imposing new tariffs on many agricultural products including rice coming from India. This statement has come at a time when efforts are being made to take the trade agreement between India and America forward again. The Trump administration believes that India and some other countries are ‘dumping cheap agricultural goods’ into the US market, causing losses to local farmers. This news can be a shock for those Indian farmers and exporters, for whom the US market has been the largest global buyer.

A major reason for stalling of trade deals is the dispute over agricultural imports.
The ongoing trade talks between India and America have been stuck for months and the main reason for this is the dispute over agricultural products. According to the Economic Times report, America wants India to give more space to dairy, meat, soya and agricultural products in its market, while India argues that this will have a deep impact on its small farmers. Due to this, the Trump government has already increased tariffs on many Indian products. Despite several rounds of talks between India and America, the trade agreement has not progressed. The biggest reason for this is disputes related to agriculture and food imports.

The things on which Trump is adamant-

Entry of GMO crops in India
America wants India to allow Genetically Modified (GMO) technology in crops like corn, soybean and wheat. But Indian scientists, farmers’ organizations and policy makers warn that this could lead to the extinction of local crop species, affect biodiversity and have serious health implications in the long run. That is why India still maintains a ban on GMO crops.

Import of American dairy products
America wants India to allow American milk, cheese, butter and ghee in its market. But India is the largest milk producing country in the world and more than 3 crore small farmers here are dependent on dairy. Apart from this, there is also a big religious and cultural objection – in America, enzymes made from animal bones are added to the food of cows. India considers it ‘non-veg milk’ and there is opposition to it on religious grounds also.

Demand to reduce import duty on agricultural products
America wants India to reduce taxes on agricultural products like wheat, rice, soybean, corn, apple and grapes, but India keeps high tariffs on these to protect its farmers so that Indian production is not affected by cheap imports.

India’s stance – no compromise with farmers and food security
Despite pressure from many countries including the World Trade Organization (WTO) and America, the Indian government is not in favor of changing its food security policy. Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, India provides free food grains to 80 crore people. The poverty rate in India was 27% in 2011-12. Which has reduced to 5.3% in 2022-23. Therefore, India argues that agricultural self-reliance and food security are part of the national policy and cannot be changed under foreign pressure.

India US trade agreement: NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam on Friday expressed confidence that some positive news may emerge on India’s proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US by the end of November.

He said in ‘CNBC-TV18’s Global Leadership Summit 2025’ program that the National Manufacturing Mission will start by the end of November. Subramaniam said, “I think things have been a bit difficult with America and efforts are being made to restart it. Trade talks are ongoing.

CEO expressed hope

Hopefully, we can get some positive news by the end of this month. The CEO said that India is continuously attracting foreign investors. He said, “American companies are opening global capability centers in India. This simply means that the basic charm of India will outweigh everything else. His comment is important because America is pressurizing India to stop buying crude oil from Russia.

Subramaniam said, the world is going through an ups and downs. Don’t know how to deal with it. The world is moving in a direction where low growth rates are a normal thing. He said, India is in a different situation among them. I mean, this is the brightest spot in the global economy, and that’s what makes it important.

Talks are going on between the two countries

Many levels of trade talks have taken place between India and America. Positive signals are being given from both the countries regarding the talks. Recently, the US President praised Prime Minister Modi. In such a situation, it remains to be seen what result this talk will reach.

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Indian exporters can take advantage of the increasing trade tension between America and China. America has imposed new and higher tariffs i.e. import duties on many goods coming from China, due to which Chinese products will become expensive in the American market. Because of this, the demand of American companies and buyers may now move towards India instead of China.

Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) President SC Ralhan said that this is a good opportunity for Indian exporters. He said that India already exports many types of goods to America and now exports can be increased by taking advantage of this situation. Along with this, it will give Indian companies an opportunity to compete more in the American market and create new buyers.

Due to imposition of tariff on Chinese goods by America, demand may increase towards India. In 2024–25, India exported goods worth $86 billion to America. Regarding this, Ralhan, President of Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), said, “We can benefit from this increasing tension.”

America imposed 100% tariff on China

On Friday (October 10), America had announced the imposition of additional 100% tariff on goods coming from China from November 1. With this the total duty on Chinese imports will reach approximately 130%. This step was taken after Beijing imposed strict controls on the export of rare earths on October 9. Rare earths are essential for America’s defense, electric vehicle and clean energy industries.

Currently the US imposes 50% duty on Indian goods, which includes an additional 25% tariff. SC Ralhan said, “Now we will benefit from 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods. This will open up huge opportunities for India in the American market.”

Another expert said that due to this tariff, Chinese goods will become expensive in the American market and their competition will reduce. Toy exporter Manu Gupta also believes the change will help Indian businesses attract new buyers. He said, “It will be beneficial for us. Higher tariff will provide a level playing field.” He also told that American retail giant Target has approached him for new products.

Think tank GTRI said that the growing trade dispute between the US and China could increase global prices of electric vehicles, wind turbines and semiconductor parts. In addition, the US is heavily dependent on China for electronics, textiles, footwear, white goods and solar panels.

America is India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year

America remains India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024–25. Bilateral trade reached $131.84 billion, which included exports of $86.5 billion. The US accounts for about 18% of India’s total merchandise exports, 6.22% of its imports and 10.73% of its total trade. Currently India and America are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement.

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India US Trade Talks: The tension between India and America due to tariffs (fees) is continuously increasing. The US government has recently imposed a high tariff of up to 50 percent on Indian goods exports, including 25 percent base tariff and additional 25 percent punitive fee. This additional fee has been levied by the US in the form of penalty imposed by India on purchasing crude oil from Russia.

However, after some positive indications received by US President Donald Trump recently, the talks between the two countries have started again. Earlier many rounds of talks were inconclusive, but now the situation seems to be changing.

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam on Monday expressed confidence that India and the United States will soon have a mutually beneficial trade agreement. He said that both countries are committed to a bilateral agreement that is in the interest of the economies of both.

India needs to open its market: Subrahmanyam

Subrahmanyam said that India should reduce its fees and non-tariff barriers and make markets more open to increase competition in manufacturing sector. He made this statement during the release of ‘Trade Watch Quarterly’ report. He said, “The good thing is that both sides are still committed to the conversation. The talks were held last month, so we hope that we will get positive results soon.”

Significantly, in August, the US doubled the tariff over Indian goods to 50 percent. It also includes tariffs in the form of 25 percent panalty imposed to buy oil from Russia. After this move, tension between Delhi and Washington increased.

India described this American step as “inappropriate and indiscriminate”. Subrahmanyam said that these fees will not have a major impact till Christmas, but if there is no agreement by November, then there may be a serious impact in the export sector.

Economic shock will be deferred with agreement

He said, “We are currently in harm… 50 percent of our goods become expensive, which is difficult to stay in competition. But if the trade agreement is reached by November, then big disruption can be avoided.” Subrahmanyam also added that India’s trade deficit is still manageable, but there is an imbalance in it.

Overall, this tariff confrontation between India and the US is a challenge for both economies – but if the conversation moves in the right direction, the new trade agreement between the two countries can prove to be a positive sign in the global market.

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US President Donald Trump left for the US on 30 July 2025 from a 4 -day Scotland tour. Meanwhile, he spoke to reporters in Air Force One and answered questions related to tariffs. Speaking especially on questions related to India, he said that India has been a good friend, but he imposes more tariffs on America than in almost any other country. You cannot do this. When asked if it is possible to impose 20% -25% tariff on India? So Trump replied to me. However, he also said that no final decision has been taken so far.

The statement from US President Donald Trump came at a time when talks are going on between India and the US about the trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, but so far no concrete results have been achieved. The Trump administration wants to bring tariff rates to countries around the world under the “Reciprocal Tariffs” i.e. mutual tariff policy. On July 23, Trump also said that America will not keep the tariff less than 15% for any country. They allege that economies like India impose more charges on American products, while the American market is open to them. Under this policy, countries like India are considered to be the United Stating Partner of America, until they cut the tariff.

#Watch When asked if India is going to pay high tarifs, between 20-25%, US President Donald Trump Says, “Yeah, I Think So. India is my friend. is not finalized. India has been a good friend, but India has… pic.twitter.com/iyxparzqce

– ANI (@ani) July 29, 2025

Negotiations between India and America continue
The Government of India is trying to compromise before the deadline of August 1. The Indian delegation led by Rajesh Aggarwal has completed a 5 round of talks in Washington in July. This conversation lasted for four days, but there is no success. Agriculture, automobile, digital business were important in the issue of negotiations. According to PTI, those who participated in the conversation on behalf of the US informed that the next round of talks is likely to be after August, ie after the deadline is over.

What does Indo-US trade stress mean?
The relations between India and the US are strategically strong, but there has been a long tension on the trade front.
The potential impact of Trump’s warning may have in many areas, which is as follows-

• Pressure on Indian exporters will increase (especially steel, aluminum, textile fields.
• Bilateral differences over IT services and data policy can be deeper.
• Strategic partnership such as defense and quad cooperation may be affected.

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The Indian party has returned from Washington after negotiating the interim trade agreement with the US. Giving this information, an official said that the agreement is likely to be finalized before July 9, but some issues in agriculture and vehicle sectors still need to be resolved, so the discussion will continue.

The Indian party is being led by the chief negotiator Rajesh Aggarwal. He is a special secretary in the Department of Commerce. The official said the talks are in the final stages and its conclusion is expected to be announced before 9 July, which is the last day of the 90-day suspension of the US President Donald Trump’s counter-duty in the 90-day suspension.

25 percent fee in vehicle sector

The official said, ‘The Indian team is back from Washington, the talks will continue. There are some issues in agriculture and vehicle areas, which need to be resolved. India has raised the issue on 25 percent fee in the vehicle sector. It has taken up the matter in the Security Committee of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

India has also told the WTO that it has reserved the right to reply on selected American products in response to the US fee on steel and aluminum.

India’s talk with different countries

Union Minister Piyush Goyal said on the trade agreement with the US, ‘India discusses its terms, discussion with different countries, whether it is European Union, New Zealand, Oman, Oman, America, Chile or Peru. Agreement is going on with many countries of India. Free trade agreement is only when there is two -way profit and when the deal is done keeping India’s interests safe, keeping in mind that the national interest will always be the highest.

The Union Minister said that India is always ready to deal with developed countries. India never does any trade deal on a deadline basis. When the deal is good and in national interest, we accept it.

America increased 25 percent duty on imports

In a letter sent to the World Trade Organization, India said that on March 26, 2025, the US has adopted a measure in India or from there as a 25 percent duty increase on import of imported passenger vehicles and light trucks and some vehicles and some vehicles.

This fee on vehicle parts has come into force from May 3, 2025 for an unlimited period. Last year, the US imported vehicles worth $ 89 billion globally. It had a share of Mexico $ 36 billion, China’s $ 10.1 billion and India was only $ 2.2 billion.

After all, why is talks with America important?

The Indian team was in Washington to negotiate an interim trade agreement with the US from 26 June to 2 July. This dialogue is important because the suspension of Trump’s counter duty ends on 9 July. Both sides are considering finalizing the talks before that.

On April 2, the US imposed an additional 26 percent retaliation on Indian goods, but was suspended for 90 days. However, 10 percent of the original fee levied by the US is still applicable. India wants a complete discount from an additional 26 percent fee.

The purpose of the agreement bilateral trade

The two countries are expecting to complete the dialogue for the first phase of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) by September-October this year. The purpose of this agreement is to double bilateral trade from the current $ 191 billion to $ 500 billion by 2030.

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Trump tarifs: The successful bilateral trade agreement between the US-India can suit the existing adverse conditions. This can open access to new markets and can boost exports. This has been said in a report released by the Finance Ministry on Tuesday. Indo-US can conclude the interim trade agreement before 8 July. In this, India is emphasizing on giving full exemption from 26 percent counter -duty on domestic goods.

On April 2, the US imposed an additional 26 percent retaliation on Indian goods, but was suspended for 90 days till 90 days. However, 10 percent of the original fees have been kept in force. The report said that amidst global uncertainty, India has the ability to remain one of the attractive destinations for investment in India.

Investment may increase

The Monthly Economic Review of the Finance Ministry states that foreign investors can give positive response to policies that strengthen the country’s medium -term development prospects. The report said that in particular, policies that increase the skills and productivity of the country’s youth work can greatly strengthen the cycle of investment and growth. According to this, India remains the fastest growing major economy. While various global agencies have made significant cuts in the growth rate of other countries, it is the lowest in India’s case.

According to the World Economic Scenario (April 2025) of the International Monetary Fund, India’s actual GDP growth for 2025-26 is estimated to be 6.2 percent, which is 0.30 percent less than its previous forecast in January 2025. These amendments have been made in view of global uncertainties and business tension.

Growth rate estimated to be more than 6.3 percent

Many agencies have estimated India’s growth to be 6.3 percent to 6.7 percent in FY 2025-26, which is getting support from strong domestic foundation, stable large economic management and increasing government capital expenditure. At the same time, declining inflation further strengthens this scenario.

According to the report, strong domestic foundation for the Indian economy, wide economic management and ability to withstand external shocks remain its specialty. Strong private consumption, especially in rural areas improve the primary engine of improvement and strong service export development. It said, “The service sector is constantly expanding healthy. Due to this, some softening of goods exports is being made. The Indian rupee remains relatively stable and foreign exchange reserves are providing protection against external shocks. ”

The report said that the approach in the case of inflation remains optimistic. Food inflation pressure is expected to be reduced due to good rabi crop in the coming time, increase in acreage under summer crops and better buffer stock of food grains. The Meteorological Department’s estimate of more rainfall than normal and the decline in crude oil prices strengthens the trend of decrease in inflation.

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