India US Trade Deal: The much awaited trade deal between India and America may happen in the first six months of this year. This has been said by Ian Bremmer, head of Eurasia Group and world renowned risk analyst. He says that American tariff increase on India may not even be included in the list of major risks for India in 2026. According to Bremer, this issue will definitely be big in 2025, but its importance will reduce significantly in 2026.

In an exclusive interview given to NDTV, Ian Bremner was asked about the timeline of the India-US trade deal. On this he clearly said, ‘India-America trade deal will be done in the first half of this year.’

Talks have been going on for several months

Negotiations on India-US trade deal have been going on for the last several months, but in August 2025, relations between the two countries turned sour when America imposed 50 percent tariff on India. This tariff was imposed due to India continuing to buy oil from Russia.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi last spoke to US President Donald Trump on December 11. This conversation took place shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. After this, after the visit of US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer to India in December, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had said that talks regarding a trade deal with America are in the advanced stage.

Donald Trump gave a statement

Earlier today, President Donald Trump also said that his relations with Prime Minister Modi are good, but there is disagreement regarding tariffs. Trump said, ‘I have a very good relationship with Prime Minister Modi, but he is not happy with me because India has to pay higher tariffs. However, now India has reduced oil purchases from Russia to a great extent.

Constant changes in the situation regarding trade deals and the absence of any fixed deadline have increased the pressure on Indian exporters, especially before the new financial year. Many domestic export sectors of India have been badly affected by the 50 percent tariff imposed by America. These include leather, chemicals, footwear, gems and jewellery, textile and shrimp industries. These areas are expected to get relief in the coming days.

India’s external sector showed a mixed picture in the year 2025 amid global slowdown and increasing uncertainty. On one hand, India achieved record exports of $825 billion, on the other hand, FDI flows remained quite volatile and in some months the net FDI even went negative. In this video we will understand in simple language why FDI declined between August to October 2025? Why did foreign companies send money back (Repatriation)? How did outward FDI and global uncertainty affect net numbers?

We will also know how Electronics, Pharma and Engineering sectors supported exports, services exports gave cushion to India amid global slowdown, how FTAs ​​(UK, EFTA, Oman, New Zealand) boosted trade, but the question is – will India miss the $1 trillion exports target in FY26? How strong are the chances of FDI recovery in 2026? There is also detailed discussion on government reforms, FDI liberalization and future roadmap in this video. If you are interested in economy, stock market, UPSC, banking or current affairs, then this video is very important for you.

India US Trade Talks: This can be a relief news for India. The long wait for a trade deal between India and America, which is facing high American tariffs, may now end soon. mint According to the report, the American tariff imposed on Indian goods can be reduced by 15 to 16 percent. At present, about 50 percent US duty is being imposed on goods imported from India.

According to the report, the main focus of the proposed agreement between America and India is on energy and agriculture sectors. Also, Washington, which is trying to reduce global dependence on oil supplies from Russia, is trying to get India to gradually reduce its purchases of oil from Moscow. Discussion is also going on on this issue.

India-America trade deal in final round

The talks between the two countries mainly focus on increasing mutual cooperation in the energy and agriculture sectors. Both these areas were at the center of attention in earlier talks also. mint Quoting officials related to the matter, it has been said that the talks have now reached the final stage and an agreement can be reached before the ASEAN summit to be held at the end of this month. Along with this, there is also a possibility of a formal announcement.

However, neither the Indian Commerce Ministry nor the White House has given any official response in this regard so far.

Emphasis on agriculture and energy

Under the agreement, India may allow increased imports of some American agricultural products — such as non-genetically modified corn and soymeal. This may put an end to the long running dispute regarding access of American products to the Indian agricultural market.

In return, the US tariff rates imposed on Indian goods can be reduced by about 15 to 16 percent. This cut will make Indian products, especially textiles, medicines and engineering goods, more competitive in the US market.

Also read: These two stocks are making waves in terms of returns, shares have risen by 90% in just one year

Democrats of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee have criticized President Donald Trump and his administration. He says that only India is being targeted to buy oil from Russia, while big buyers like China are exempted.

Tariff damage to America and relations
Democrats say that 50% of tariffs on Trump’s Indian imports have damaged Americans and are damaging Indo-US relations made up of the last two decades of bipartite attempts. He said that “instead of banning China or other countries, only targeting India is weakening the US-India relations. It is almost as the case is not related to Ukraine.”

NYT report cited
The panel, citing the report of the New York Times, said that if the Trump administration had imposed a secondary ban on every country buying oil from Russia, the matter was different. But by focusing only on India, this has become the most confused policy result, because China is still buying Russian oil at a discount after getting discounts.

New tariffs and effects
The attack of Democrats came when the additional 25% tariffs (above 25% applied) applied by Trump became effective. In this way the tariff rate has doubled. Trump has linked it to India’s Russian oil trade.

According to the Government of India, these tariffs will have an impact on export of $ 48.2 billion. Officials have warned that new duties can make the US a commercially non-practical, which can reduce employment and slow the economic growth.

Modi government’s attitude
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has clarified that India will not bow under pressure. However, the US has exempted some sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronic goods, which has given partial relief to India.

Status of trade relations
Indo-US trade relations have been strengthened in recent years, but they are still affected by controversies on market access and domestic political pressures. India was in early countries that started trade talks with the Trump administration, but so far no agreement has been reached as America has been demanding more reach in India’s agriculture and dairy sector.

Additional tariff from America on India has come into force today (27 August 2025). Additional tariffs are expected to cause moderate pressure on labor based industries such as textiles and gems and jewelery, while industries like drug, smartphone and steel will remain untouched by this effect of tariffs due to existing tariff structures and strong domestic consumption.

A latest report by SBI Research states that American tariff may affect the US GDP 40-50 basis points. The report said, “50 per cent of tariffs will affect $ 45 billion exports, in the worst, India’s trade surplus will turn into a trade deficit. However, we believe that business talks will restore confidence and improve exports to America.”

Drug imports discounts from India
America has exempted drug imports from India. India stake in 2025 in the total drug imports of America was 6 percent and in FY 25, 40 percent of India’s drug exports was recorded to the US. Meanwhile, due to the effect of recent tariffs and weak dollars, new inflationary pressure signs in the US, especially in import-sensitive areas such as electronics, autos and consumer durables, have started appearing.

These countries will benefit due to India
Between high tariffs, India’s product may lose their ability to compete, which may potentially benefit countries such as China and Vietnam. The reason for this is that the tariff imposed on India is more than other Asian countries. The tariff rate is 30 percent for China, 20 percent for Vietnam, 19 percent for Indonesia and 15 percent for Japan. According to the report, “America remains India’s largest textile export destination. In the last five years, India has steadily increased clothing market share, while China’s share has declined.

This change reflects India’s growing importance in the American Supply Chain system. The US remains the largest market for gems and jewelery sectors, which is about one third of the region’s annual exports of $ 28.5 billion. With the US tariffs being increased from 25 percent to 50 percent, exporters are ready for significant disruption.

Also read: Our 30 lakh people killed, millions of rapes …. Pakistan’s Bangladeshi expert went to become a brother by showing apologies