Goldman Sachs between Israel-Iran War says that if the oil supply from Hormuz Strait is half for a month and then remains 10 per cent less by the next 11 months, then the price of Brent crude can temporarily reach $ 110 per barrel. In such a situation, the average oil price in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be $ 95 per barrel.

What is going on in the oil market right now?

Recently, oil prices have become unstable by the US after the Aermarkation on Iran. The price of Brent crude reached a height of 5 months on Monday to $ 78, but later came to $ 75.4. WTI crude was also seen around $ 74. Due to the increasing tension between Iran and America, global concern about Hormuz Strait is depth, because this path is necessary for 27 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent LNG supply.

What will be the effect on India?

Talking to Business Standard, Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda said that if the price of oil increases by 10 per cent for some time, the economy will not be affected, but if it persists for a long time above $ 100, it can have a serious impact on inflation, consumption and GDP. He said that at the beginning of the year, the government had estimated the crude oil on $ 80 per barrel basis, so the prices of more than that can prove to be red flag.

Can hormuz really shut down?

The Iran’s Parliament has recently passed a resolution that has been approved to close the hormuz straight in an emergency, although the final decision is with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. According to Goldman Sachs, the possibility of closing Hormuz in 2025 is believed to be up to 52 percent. Many ships have already started changing their route.

What can happen next?

Experts believe that OPEC+ countries have additional production of 6 million barrels per day, so they can control prices. In addition, shell oil production in the US may also increase if prices remained above $ 70.

How is Iran’s oil status?

In March 2025, Iran’s oil exports reached 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day. Iran’s main customer is China, who buys 80-90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. According to Bloomberg’s report, since June 13, Iran has rapidly assembled the oil on the island of Kharg, which is its major export terminal.

Also read: Multibagger stocks across the basket will be found here, someone ran 200% in 2025 and someone gave 400% return

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the first reaction on Monday (June 23, 2025) after the US attacks on nuclear bases. Describing these attacks as a big crime, he vowed that Israel would have to pay a heavy price and the punishment being given to him will continue. However, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not name America in his statement.

On the social media platform X, Khamenei said, ‘The punishment continues. The Jewish enemy has made a huge mistake, committed a big crime. He should be punished and getting. Right now, punishment is being given. The US on Sunday attacked Iran’s three nuclear bases, Isfahan, Natanj and Fordo, on which Khamenei has said something for the first time.

Due to the entry of America, the situation is changing in the middle East very fast. On Sunday (Indian time), the US launched Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran, in which the US bombed some areas of Iran through the B2 Stealth Bomber. Three major nuclear sites of Isfahan, Fordo and Natanj were targeted.

According to Iran’s official news agency ISNA, an ambulance was targeted in the Israeli drone attack in Isfahan province late on Sunday night, killing three people. Najafabad County Governor Hamidreja Mohammadi Fesharki said that this ambulance was carrying a patient. The driver, the patient and the person present with him died in the attack.

On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said that Israel will carry forward its campaign. He said that Israel will continue to do its work with full force in both Iran and Gaza. Netanyahu said, “We will not stop this historical campaign before achieving our goals.”

Israel and Iran have been in the battlefield for about 10 days. On June 13, there were Israeli attacks on several locations including atomic and military sites in Iran, in which several senior commanders and nuclear scientists were killed. According to the Iranian Health Ministry, more than 400 people were killed and more than 3500 injured in Iran till Saturday. At that time, Iran also retaliated with missiles and drone attacks on Israel. In Israel, officials reported the death of 24 people.

Amidst tension in the Middle East, Iran’s Parliament has now been approved to close the hormun Strait. After this, now the supply chain of crude oil is expected to be affected due to its closure. However, Petrol Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that there is no shortage of crude oil and the government is closely eyeing it. But, despite the US air strike on Iran’s nuclear installations, if the oil transport sea route closes the Iran Hormun Strait, then India is not going to make much difference.

Straight of hormun closure will not affect

According to industry experts, if the hormun strandary is closed, then there will be many options to import oil across India. From countries from Russia to America and Brazil, India can import oil of its need as an alternative source.

As soon as the tension between Iran and Israel increased the Iranian Parliament has approved the closure of Hormun Strait. From here, about 20 percent of the total oil and gas supply of the world is transported by this waterway. India imports about 40 percent of its oil and gas needs from this part. This hormuz is located between Iran in the north and Oman in the south and the United Arab Emirates. It is a major part of oil transport from major oil producing countries Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and UAE.

India depends on imports 90% oil

India imports about 90 percent of its needs, out of which about 40 percent of which comes from the countries of Midil East via this hormun Strait. India imports about 51 lakh barrels of oil, which is converted to the refinery and prepared petrol and diesel.

But, due to the closure of this route, India oil prices are sure to increase, but it will not have much effect in India. As soon as tension in the middle East increased, India increased the purchase of oil from Russia in June. Middle East supplier increased oil imports from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The oil hormun imported from Russia comes via a suicide canal separate from the strait. Apart from this, countries like America, West Africa, Latin America are also in option for oil backup countries as an alternative.

Also read: Gold became cheaper amidst tension in the middle East, know the fresh sense of your city on 23 June 2025

US President Donald Trump has made a big claim about Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He said that we know very well where the Supreme leaders of Iran are hiding. Trump threatened Khamenei and said that he is a very easy target for us. The United States President Donald Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social, ‘We are well aware of where the story of Iran is hidden. They are a very easy target for us, but at the moment they are safe because we do not want to kill them right now.

Donald Trump Early Exit G7 Summit 2025: When the seven major democratic countries of the world were gathering for the G7 conference in the cold Rocky hills of Canada, US President Donald Trump shocked everyone. Before the formal beginning of the conference, Trump announced that he was returning to America a day before.

When the media asked the reason for this, the press secretary of the White House, Caroline Levitt, said that Trump is returning to Washington soon so that they can focus on some important issues. However, he officially explained the reason for the Middle East, but the real reason is considered to be the increasing tension between Iran and Israel and American diplomacy.

Donald Trump warns to vacate Tehran

On the very first day of the G7 conference, US President Donald Trump once again came into the limelight when he warned the people of Tehran to vacate the city. However, he did not give any clear reason behind this warning. This post was seen by experts as a strategy to pressurize Iran. During this period, Europe leader- French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Frederick Merz, Britain’s Prime Minister Kir Starmer and Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney were preparing a common statement.

US President Donald Trump said this big thing

There were two main things in this statement- first that Iran was prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons and second to support Israel’s right to self-defense, but President Trump refused to sign this shared statement, which led to America’s stand out of the rest of the countries. Speaking to reporters, US President Donald Trump said that he could soon make a diplomatic agreement with Iran. He said, “Iran wants to talk. We are going to do something.”

However, Trump did not say what steps he is actually going to take. He also revealed that he had given a two -month ultimatum to Iran, whose duration was completed on Friday. On the same day, Israel made the most aggressive attacks on Iran so far, in which its nuclear facilities and military officers were on target. In this conference, Trump also reiterated his old stand on Russia and said that it was a mistake to remove Russia from G8 11 years ago. If he had even joined today, there would not have been a Ukraine war.

On this, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed strong objections, saying, “The country that is violating the United Nations charter cannot become a messenger of peace in the Middle East.”

Also read-

Donald Trump’s warning in Israel-Iran Jung, ‘Empty Tehran, how shame …’

Indian students in ran: Today is the fourth day of the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. India has taken a big step amidst the continuous bombing and increasing stress. The government has started the process of evacuating Indian citizens and students trapped in Iran. This decision has been taken at a time when thousands of Indians are trapped in difficult situations there and the war is continuously intensifying.

India started withdrawal, first batch reached Armenia
According to government sources, the first batch of Indian citizens reached Armenia border from Iran on Tuesday night. There are about 110 people in this batch, this process has been started after a conversation between the Government of India and Iran.

India sought help for a safe return of about 10,000 students from Iran. The Iranian government agreed to this and said that its airspace is closed, so Indian citizens can go from ground routes to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Arrangement of special buses made for the evacuation of Indian students
On Monday, the Indian Embassy arranged special buses to take out students from Tehran. All Indian students have been transported to safe areas from Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Islamic Azad University and Iran University of Medical Sciences. At the same time, students of Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences were sent to Kom city from Gate No. 2 (Iranian time) of Welllen University.

On the other hand, the work of sending students to safe places is also going on from Urmia University of Medical Sciences. Also, the Indian embassy is in constant touch with the officials of Shiraz University and Isfahan University of Medical Sciences and students will be taken out on Tuesday morning.

Indian Embassy issued advisory
The Indian Embassy in Tehran issued an advisory on June 15, asking all Indian citizens and overseas Indians to stay in contact with the embassy, ​​do not get out without need and take updates from the social media platforms of the embassy.

The embassy also stated that he is keeping an eye on the security situation and is in constant touch with the students living in Iran to ensure their safety and assistance.

Iran warns America
Iranian President Masood Pezeskian has given a strong warning to the US. He has said that if the US did not stop Israel, then Iran’s next retaliation will be even more painful.

The statement came on Monday during a telephone conversation with Sultan Hatham bin Ta Tahark of Oman. President Peseskian said that Iran has also shown earlier that it is capable of giving fast and accurate answers. He said, “If this happens again, our answer will be even more harsh.”