The results of Bihar assembly elections will be declared on 14 November. Materise’s exit poll regarding victory in the 2025 elections has come out, according to which this time the voter share of Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM is seen at 1 percent, while the vote share of Jan Suraj, the party of Prashant Kishor, who is famous as an election strategist, is seen at 5 percent.

According to Materize’s exit poll regarding seats, Jan Suraj Party is likely to get 0 to 2 seats, whereas AIMIM, which had 5 MLAs last time, seems to be shrinking to 2-3 seats this time.

What did Manoj Singh, founder of Materialise, tell?
Manoj Singh, founder of Materialize, talked to a news channel regarding his exit poll. Regarding the estimate of 0-2 seats for Jan Suraj, he said that Prashant Kishore not contesting the elections himself went against the party. He also said that he did not see any kind of target in making his candidate win.

What was said about Jan Suraj
Regarding the selection of candidates of Jan Suraj, Manoj Singh said that he had announced that new faces would be given a chance, but nothing like this was actually seen. Rather, he made many candidates from other parties his face. The third major reason given by him was the anger of Jan Suraj workers. He further said that Prashant Kishore had made migration a big issue, but he had no vision as to how he would stop it.

Statement given on Owaisi’s party also
Regarding Seemanchal, he said that the people there believe that Owaisi’s party will not be able to win more than 4-5 seats, as happened last time. He further said that even NDA does not want Owaisi to win more seats there. NDA alliance wants that if Owaisi can deduct even 10 percent votes from the 40-60 fight, then his path will become easier.

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The enthusiasts have intensified for the Bihar assembly elections. Meanwhile, now the survey is also coming out. In a mega survey of Lokpol, this time the BJP -led NDA alliance is seen lagging behind. According to the survey, this time the NDA may shrink between 105-114 seats, on the other hand, the grand alliance led by Tejashwi is estimated to get 118-126 seats. That is, India Block is close to forming the government. In the survey, others are expected to get 2 to 5 seats.

NDA and India blocks collide
According to the Mega Survey of Lokpol, the NDA is seen getting 38 to 41 percent of the votes, while once again India is seen as a block in it. The Maha alliance is expected to get 39 to 42 percent of the votes. At the same time, others are expected to get 12 percent to 16 percent votes.

122 seats need to form government
Let us know that 122 seats are needed to form a government in Bihar with 243 seats. According to the mega survey of Lokpol, this time it is clear that the Grand Alliance is heavy in Bihar and they are seen forming a government. However, the number of seats or the vote percentage figures, both at the NDA and India blocks are seen in a thorn. It is clear that the Maha alliance can come to power this time with the manipulation of 2-4 seats or the NDA can return again.

Main contest between RJD and JDU
This time in Bihar, Prashant Kishore’s party Jan Suraj is also contesting elections. Although in many survey, Jan Suraj has been told in the fight, but in this mega survey of Lokpol, Jan Suraj is not seen giving any big competition. It is clear that like every time, this time also the main contest in Bihar is being seen between RJD and JDU.

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The Election Commission in Bihar is amending the voter list. Opposition is making a hurry about this. Meanwhile, political analyst Amitabh Tiwari gave his opinion on the issue. He said that this is not new, but when the figure pointed to the removal of 41 lakh names, then the question is bound to arise.

This time the Commission says that these names are being removed as dead persons, transferred voters and unfair or fake names. Of these, about 17 lakh names are of deceased voters. 12-13 lakh shifted voters and remaining 10-12 lakh names suspect that they may be duplicate or fake voters, but when this figure comes out in the election year, the opposition questions whether it is only routine process or a step affecting political mathematics?

According to a recent survey, people’s opinion is divided that 35% people believe that removing illegal voters is the right decision. 16% of people consider it only routine process. At the same time, 27% believes that it was not required yet, while 15-17% people consider it to be inspired by political purpose. It makes it clear that the public is confused and divided about this decision.

Will voting intentions really affect?
In a conversation with News, political analyst Amitabh Tiwari said that if the cut voters are already dead or transferred, then it is natural to be withdrawn. This will not have any special effect on the election results, but if such people are left out who are really living and local voters. If he had already lodged himself in the voter list, then it can affect the voting intension. As long as it is not clear how many legitimate voters are included in the removed voters, it is difficult to say which alliance will be affected by this decision.

Opposition’s concern in the absence of data
Opposition parties are repeatedly raising the issue that the Commission is not telling how many illegal migrants in the removed voters or how many voters had registered a name in repetition. Due to lack of transparency, this issue has become more controversial. The latest survey gives these indications that the Grand Alliance (RJD + Congress) sees a little lead, but the NDA is going a little further in the favorite face of the Chief Minister’s post. This means that the election is still completely open. Voting intension is not stable and changes are possible at the last moment.

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