India’s Trade Outlook: India remains at the top among the fastest growing countries not only in South Asia but also in the world. When US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on India and an additional 25 percent tariff on buying oil from Russia, i.e. a total of 50 percent, many experts feared a deep negative impact on India’s economy. But the facts that have come to the contrary may surprise even President Trump himself.

Tariff had no effect

US tariffs have had almost no impact on Indian GDP. On the contrary, India’s exports have registered further growth. According to SBI’s research report, despite fluctuations in the global market, India’s exports have grown strongly.

According to news agency ANI, India’s merchandise exports increased to $220 billion during April to September in the financial year 2025-26. In the same period last year, this figure was 214 billion dollars, which means there has been an increase of about 2.9 percent.

Increase in exports to America

Despite the high tariffs imposed by America, exports from India to America have increased by about 13 percent, i.e. 45 billion dollars. However, if seen on an annual basis, the shipments sent to America in September 2025 have declined by about 12 percent as compared to the previous year.

The report said that America is still India’s main export market, but after July 2025, a big decline was recorded in the total exports to America. This reduction reached approximately 15 percent in September 2025. Apart from this, there has also been a significant decline in marine products and precious stones sent to America.

turning to new markets

On the other hand, India has changed the direction of its exports towards countries like UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. It is noteworthy that American high tariffs have had the biggest impact on Indian products like textiles, jewelery and lobster. To deal with this situation, the government has approved an assistance amount of Rs 45,000 crore to help exporters, which also includes a credit guarantee of Rs 20,000 crore.

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India’s Goods and Services Export: Fio, the top body of exporters, said that the country’s total goods and service exports are expected to reach $ 1,000 billion during the current financial year 2025-26. The total exports in the previous financial year 2024-25 were $ 824.9 billion. Fio (Federation of Indian Export Organization) President S.K. C. Ralhan says that international buyers are focusing on diversity in their procurement source in view of global economic uncertainties. This is expected to increase a good increase in exports.

This year there is a huge increase in exports

He said that along with this, the free trade agreements being made with various countries of India will also help in increasing the country’s exports. In the financial year 2025-26, the export exports are estimated at 12 percent to 525 to 535 billion dollars, which was $ 437 billion in 2024–25. In the current financial year, service exports are estimated to increase from 465 to 475 billion to $ 475 billion, which was $ 387 billion in the last financial year.

S. C. Ralhan said that there is a significant increase in exports in all major areas in this financial year. Electronics, engineering fields, chemicals, textiles and costumes, pharma and even agriculture are expected to increase well. Petroleum and gem and jewelery exports will also be in positive scope in the coming year.

Export will increase in these sectors

The main areas helping to promote export include electrical and electronics ($ 60 billion), machinery ($ 40 billion), chemicals ($ 30 billion), drug ($ 30 billion), petroleum ($ 70 billion), apparel and napkins, apron and other clothes (23 to 25 billion dollars), gems and jewelery ($ 30 billion) and agriculture ($ 55 billion).

Red Sea started exporting through the way

Fio said that Indian export consignments are gradually passing through the Lal Sea Marg. Due to regional tension, these routes were interrupted for months. Now gradually there is movement of goods from this path, which is a sign of improvement in exports. Last year, an important vessel transport route connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, the situation around Bab-al-Mandeb Strait, deteriorated due to the attacks of Yemen’s Huki terrorists.

Due to the attacks, the vessels were carrying goods through the Cape of Good Hope associated with the African continent. As a result, there was a delay of about 14 to 20 days and freight and insurance costs were increasing. Fio Director General Ajay Sahai said, “The export of goods is gradually starting from this important sea route. This will reduce the time taken in transport.

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