About one and a quarter months is left for the presentation of the general budget. In such a situation, on one hand, the expectations of the common people increase every time from the budget, while on the other hand, the government has to try to reduce the fiscal deficit and increase development. In such This report indicates that the government can strengthen domestic demand by providing targeted fiscal support through the upcoming Union Budget. This will support economic growth and will be in line with the growth-oriented monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India.

Domestic demand will have to increase

According to global consulting firm EY, possible cuts in income tax and GST rates in the current financial year may put some pressure on government revenues. But an increase in non-tax revenue and a possible reduction in revenue expenditure will make it possible to achieve fiscal deficit and capital expenditure targets.

The report also said that recently announced measures like excise duty on tobacco products and National Security and Public Health Cess have been approved by the Parliament and will be implemented after notification. EY India’s Chief Policy Advisor D.K. Srivastava believes that going forward, India may have to depend more on its strong domestic demand for economic growth and the general budget for the financial year 2026-27 along with the policies of RBI can provide additional stimulus.

Growth rate likely to strengthen

According to the ‘EY Economy Watch’ report, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth may remain negative in the near future due to global headwinds, as seen in recent quarters. However, India’s growth rate may remain strong in the medium term due to a pick-up in domestic private investment and reduction in global supply chain disruptions.

EY estimates that India can maintain an average growth rate of around 6.5 percent, while RBI has estimated the GDP growth rate to be 7.3 percent for the current financial year.

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India’s Forex Reserve: India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $ 2.33 billion to $ 700.24 billion in the week ended on 26 September. RBI released data in this regard on Friday. A week ago, the country’s total foreign exchange reserves were $ 702.57 billion, which fell with a decrease of $ 39.6 million.

Foreign exchange reserves decline

According to the Reserve Bank data, foreign exchange assets, considered to be the major component of currency reserves, fell by $ 4.39 billion to $ 581.76 billion. These assets also include the effect of price growth or depreciation in non-American currencies such as euros, pounds and yen.

In a recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that by the end of March 2025, India’s foreign exchange reserves are so enough that they can cover the import of 11 months of goods or complete about 95.4 percent of the total outstanding external loans of the country. This reflects the strength and financial stability of India’s foreign exchange status.

Gold reserves increased by $ 2.24 billion to $ 95.02 billion in the week under review, while special drawing rights (SDR) declined by $ 9 million to $ 18.78 billion. Apart from this, India’s reserved reserves in the International Monetary Fund decreased by $ 8,9 million to $ 4.67 billion.

Rupee weakened in interbank foreign exchange market

Due to dollar demand of importers and frequent foreign capital withdrawal, the rupee fell seven paise against dollar in the interbank foreign currency exchange market on Friday at 88.78 (temporary). According to Forex traders, the rupee remains around its all -time low against the dollar due to trade tension and global uncertainties.

In addition, the issue of frequent foreign capital withdrawal and US visa fee increase also put pressure on the domestic currency. In day -to -day trading, the rupee opened at 88.68 against the US dollar and went to a low of 88.85, while finally it fell seven paise to 88.78 (temporary) from the last closed price.

For comparison, the rupee closed at 88.71 against the dollar with a gain of nine paise on Wednesday. Significantly, on September 30, the rupee came to its all -time low of 88.80 against the US dollar. Shares, foreign currency, bullion and commodity markets remained closed on Thursday due to Gandhi Jayanti and Dussehra.

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Rbi on indian economy: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the repo rate at 5.5 percent, keeping in mind the existing domestic and global conditions. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced this at a press conference after a three -day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. He informed that the attitude of monetary policy has been kept neutral, which means that the central bank will maintain flexibility in rates according to the changing economic situation. Let us know ten big things of RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-

1-RBI, while presenting the economic picture of the country, has increased the estimate of GDP growth from 6.5 percent to 6.8 percent. This is definitely good news for the country, because since the American high tariff, the economic front is facing challenges. While the estimate of retail inflation has been reduced from 3.1 percent to 2.6 percent. This is the second consecutive time when there is no change in the repo rate.

2- Governor Malhotra said that due to the repo rate being stable, there is no possibility of change in interest rates of housing, vehicles and other retail loans at the moment.

3-He also informed that from February to June this year, RBI has already reduced the repo rate by 1 percent, due to which there has been a decrease of 0.58 percent in the borrowing cost of new loans.

The 4-RBI further stated that India’s foreign exchange reserves have reached $ 700.2 billion, which is sufficient for imports of about 11 months. Also, in the second quarter of the current financial year, domestic economic activities are expected to be raised.

5-Governor admitted that challenges remain globally, but better monsoon, GST rate cuts and other policy measures will lead to inflation and economic growth will gain momentum.

6-Central bank believes that low inflation and monetary softening will lead to both investment and consumption.

7-Now it is clear that the RBI is in “Weight and Watch” mode-that is, at the moment the direction and global situation of the economy will be monitored with stable rates.

S & p upgrades india ratings: India’s Sovereign Credit Rating was upgraded by S&P Global Ratings on Thursday, ‘BBB’. The rating agency has increased India’s rating after 19 years, citing strong economic growth, political commitment to fiscal strength and better monetary policy measures to control inflation.

Relief for India

The rating agency said that India is one of the best performing economies in the world. The quality of government spending has improved in the last 5-6 years. S&P said that the American tariff will have a very limited impact on the Indian economy. According to S&P, India is relatively less dependent on trade and about 60 percent of its economic growth comes from domestic consumption.

Significantly, the US agency has improved India’s Sovereign Credit rating at a time when earlier US President Donald Trump called the Indian economy as “dead economy”. A 25 percent base tariff over India on behalf of President Trump and then have been applied as an additional 25 percent penalty due to buying oil from Russia. That is, a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods will be effective from August 27, which is the highest fee ever.

What do you mean to improve credit?

Improvement in credit will reduce the cost of debt for Indian companies in international markets. S&P gave India the lowest investment level rating ‘BBB-‘ in January 2007. This is the first improvement in credit by a global rating agency, in which India has been given a rank above the lowest investment level. ‘BBB’ is an investment -level rating and it explains the country’s better ability to easily repay its debt obligations.

S&P had changed India’s credit rating scenario from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’ in May last year, as well as indicated that the rating could improve in the next 24 months. S&P improved India’s rating, saying, “Improvement in India’s credibility, the better monetary policy that curbs inflation reflects strong economic growth with the environment.”

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Union Cabinet Decisions: Under the chairmanship of PM Modi, several important proposals were approved by the Union Cabinet on Wednesday. To speed up the field of agriculture and renewable energy, the cabinet has approved Rs 50 thousand crore. 24 thousand crore rupees will be spent annually on 100 districts selected for this and focus will be done on increasing agricultural productivity. Along with this, an attempt has been made to transform PSU in the energy sector by funding.

What is PM Dhan Dhanya Krishi Krishi Yojana

Actually, the Prime Minister Dhan-Dhanya Krishi Yojana (PMDDKY) has been brought during the Union Budget 2025-26. Its purpose will be integrated under 11 central ministries and focusing on 100 agriculture based districts and developed. This scheme will emphasize on promoting the acceptance of sustainable agricultural practices along with crop diversification.

Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav said that the selection of these districts has been taken to the areas which do not reach the correct agricultural productivity and loans properly. At least one district has been selected from every state. The Prime Minister will increase storage capacity after harvesting crops, improve irrigation facilities after harvesting and increase agricultural productivity.

20 thousand crores to speed up solar energy

This scheme will be implemented every year with a budget of Rs 24 thousand crore for the next six years. In this, there is an attempt to benefit 1.7 lakh crore farmers through things like crop irrigation, availability of loan, storage infrastructure. Officials say that its purpose is to increase the efficiency and provide the benefits of the schemes till the end at the district level.

An investment of Rs 20,000 crore has been approved by the Union Cabinet to NTPC’s subsidiary NTPC Green Energy Limited, so that green hydrogen, solar energy -based projects can be accelerated. Green energy portfolio is currently operated with a capacity of 6 GE and work is going on to increase its 26GW capacity. But it has been targeted to further 60GW by 2032.

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RBI Projections of GDP Growth: After the end of a two -day meeting of the Monetary Committee of Reserve Bank of India, on Friday, June 6, Governor Sanjay Malhotra told some important things related to inflation and the economic situation of the country. In this, he projected to decrease inflation to 3.7 percent for FY 2026. He said that the country’s inflation rate has come down significantly from the standard of RBI.

He said that inflation was above 6 percent in October 2024, but in April of 2025 it has come down to 3.2 percent. In this sense, it is expected to decrease further in the next financial year.

GDP growth estimates 6.5 percent

The RBI Governor said that 6.5 percent during the first quarter of the country’s GDP FY 2025026, 6.7 percent during the second quarter, 6.6 percent during the third quarter and 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter. RBI Gawra further said that these steps are necessary to promote investment and personal consumption, so that the speed of economic development of the country remains intact.

Successful place for investors

Sanjay Malhotra said that India remains an attractive destination for foreign investors. He described the increase in the matter of sending money back from foreign investors as a mature indication of the market, saying that it shows how a foreign investors can easily enter or exit in India.

He said that FDI flow remains strong. It increased by about 14% to $ 81 billion in FY 2024-25, which was $ 71.3 billion last year.

The RBI Governor also said that in the fourth quarter of FY 2024-25, the business deficit reduction as well as the strong service export and the amount sent from outside, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to be low for 2024-25. In addition, despite increasing global uncertainties and business stress, India’s goods trade remained strong in April 2025.

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