In the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, Prashant Kishore’s Jansuraj Party had given a different atmosphere to the entire election by entering the field with tremendous campaigning. While fielding candidates on 238 seats, the party had claimed that the public is ready for change and Jansuraj will play a decisive role. However, the picture that emerged after the counting of votes made the political strength of the party clear. The results showed that the impact of heavy campaigning could not translate into votes on the ground.

The party did not get a single victory in the fight for 238 seats. Only in Madhaura, Jansuraj candidate came second, in almost all other areas the party was reduced to third or fourth position. The counting of votes also made it clear that in many places the party got better votes than expected, but they were not enough to win any seat or pose a serious challenge.

In some seats, Jansuraj’s votes were many times more than NDA’s defeat.

An interesting aspect in the election results was that in many places the number of votes received by Jansuraj candidates was much more than the margin of defeat of the NDA candidate. Because of this, there is a heated discussion in political circles that if Jansuraj had not been in the fray, the result of these seats might have looked different.

Those seven seats where Jansuraj’s votes became a big factor

Below are the details of those 7 seats where NDA lost by a very small margin, but Jansuraj got many times more votes. These seats became the most interesting story of the election results.

Dhaka – NDA lost by only 178 votes, Jansuraj got 8,347 votes.
Jehanabad – difference 793, Jansuraj got 5,760 votes
Makhdumpur – margin 1,830, Jansuraj 4,803 votes
Tikari – margin 2,058, Jansuraj got 2,552 votes
Goh – margin 4,041, Jansuraj 7,996 votes
Bodhgaya – margin 881, Jansuraj 4,024 votes
Chanpatia – margin 602, Jansuraj 37,172 votes

Chanpatia became the biggest example

In Chanpatia, Jansuraj candidate Manish Kashyap secured 37,172 votes, while the NDA candidate lost the election by just 602 votes. This is the reason why this seat became the most discussed seat of the entire election.

Complete picture of Jansuraj in figures

Jansuraj Party contested elections on 238 seats, but could not convert any seat into victory. Naveen Kumar Singh stood second in Marhaura, but he had to face defeat from the RJD candidate by about 27 thousand votes. In all other areas, the party’s performance was mediocre and it could not reach above the third-fourth position.

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The initial surveys that came after the end of voting for Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have created a stir in the politics of the entire state. According to the Vote Vibe survey, this time the contest is considered to be very close. The race for power between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to be a tie. At the same time, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has also left its impact on a limited level, which has made the contest more interesting.

According to the latest data of Vote Vibe Exit Poll 2025, Tejashwi Yadav has been most liked for the post of Chief Minister. Although his lead is not much. According to the survey, Tejashwi Yadav was liked by about 35 percent people, while Nitish Kumar got the support of about 33 percent voters. Jan Suraj chief Prashant Kishore has become the choice of voters at around 9 percent. It is clear from this that the people of Bihar are still divided between Nitish and Tejashwi and the final result can go in any direction.

Women assured NDA of lead

This time women voters have once again expressed confidence in Nitish Kumar. The financial assistance given under Jeevika scheme has strengthened NDA’s hold among women. It is believed that women in rural areas voted for NDA in large numbers, which has given an additional edge to the alliance. This is the same factor that gave NDA the lead in the 2020 elections also.

Youth are inclined towards grand alliance

Young voters seem to be slightly inclined in favor of the Grand Alliance this time. Tejashwi Yadav focused on issues like employment, government jobs and migration throughout the election campaign. This is the reason why a large number of youth voted in the name of change. The popularity of the Grand Alliance can be clearly seen among the youth in urban areas like Patna, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur and Gaya.

NDA has slight lead, but result uncertain

According to the total vote percentage, NDA is said to be ahead by a slight margin. According to the survey, NDA is expected to get around 45 percent votes, while the Grand Alliance is expected to get around 42 percent votes. Jan Suraj Party seems to be getting around 5 percent votes. This small difference can completely change the results. Political analysts believe that if this trend continues then Nitish Kumar’s return is possible, but the final decision will be taken only on the day of counting.

Jan Suraj becomes the third force

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has registered its presence in the politics of Bihar for the first time. Although this party is not seen in the race for power, but it has made the contest triangular on many seats. Experts believe that even if Jan Suraj’s limited vote share is reduced by more than one party, it can have a big impact on the results.

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The political equation is becoming very interesting in all the exit polls and surveys released before Bihar Assembly elections 2025. While most of the surveys are showing the NDA’s lead, a survey has also emerged which has increased the political stir. Journo Mirror’s survey has shown the Grand Alliance (MGB) getting a clear majority.

Journo Mirror changed the equation

According to Journo Mirror, the Grand Alliance may get 130 to 140 seats this time, while the NDA is said to be limited to only 100 to 110 seats. This estimate is completely opposite to all other surveys. It has been claimed in this survey that this time the public is in the mood for change and a new equation can be formed in the state.

NDA ahead in remaining surveys

However, other major survey agencies like P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, DV Research, Matriz IANS, Chanakya, Poll Diary and Praja Poll Analytics have shown the NDA close to or above the majority. Among these, NDA has got an estimate of 130 to 209 seats, while the Grand Alliance is said to be limited to between 32 to 108 seats.

Source	NDA	MGB (Grand Alliance)	OTH (other)
Matriz IANS	147–167	70–90	2–6
Chanakya	130–138	100–108	3–5
Poll Diary	184–209	32–49	1–5
Praja Poll Analytics	186	50	7
Polestrat	133–148	87–102	3–5
TIF Research	145–163	76–95	0–1
JVC	135–150	88–103	3–6
People’s Insight	133–148	87–102	3–6
People’s Pulse	133–159	75–101	2–13
P-Marq	142–162	80–98	1–7
DV Research	137–152	83–98	3–12
Journal Mirror	100–110	130–140	3–7
Poll of Polls (Average)	131–157	80–93	3–6

Which party got how many seats in 2020?

Last time in Bihar assembly elections i.e. in 2020, the NDA alliance had won and formed the government. At that time NDA had got a total of 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance had got success on 110 seats.

If we look at the figures of the last elections, in the NDA alliance, BJP got 74 seats, JDU got 43 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got 4 seats and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) also got 4 seats.

On the other hand, RJD had emerged as the largest party from the Grand Alliance by winning 75 seats. Congress got 19 seats, CPI (ML) got 12 seats, while AIMIM and other parties got 5 seats.

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The second phase of Bihar Assembly elections 2025 is now just a few days away. After voting on 121 seats in the first phase, now on November 11, voters will decide the fate of 1302 candidates on 122 seats in 18 districts. Political parties have put all their strength into these seats and campaigning is at its peak.

In the second phase, voting will be held from the areas of Seemanchal bordering UP to the seats of Champaran belt and Mithilachal. In the first phase, Nitish Kumar and Jitan Ram Manjhi were tested on the credibility of NDA, whereas in the second phase, it is considered to be the real test of BJP. RJD and Congress have to prove their strength in the grand alliance, while it will be challenging for Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to save its credibility in Seemanchal. In 2020, Owaisi surprised everyone by winning the seats of this phase.

Districts and seats for the second phase

In the second phase, voting will be held on 122 seats in 18 districts. These include 10 from Gayaji district, 4 from Kaimur, 7 from Rohtas, 6 from Aurangabad, 2 from Arwal, 3 from Jehanabad, 5 from Nawada, 7 from Bhagalpur, 5 from Banka, 4 from Jamui, 8 from Sitamarhi, 1 from Shivhar, 10 from Madhubani, 5 from Supaul, 7 from Purnia, 6 from Araria, Along with 7 seats of Katihar and 4 seats of Kishanganj, 12 assembly seats of East Champaran and 9 assembly seats of West Champaran are included.

List of main assembly seats

• Gayaji: Belaganj, Gaya Town, Bodh Gaya, Tikari, Sherghati, Barachatti (SC), Attri, Imamganj (SC), Guruva, Wazirganj.
• Kaimur: Chainpur, Mohania, Bhabua, Ramgarh
• Rohtas: Nokha, Dehri, Karakat, Karghar, Sasaram, Chenari, Dinara
• Aurangabad: Goh, Obra, Navinagar, Kutumba, Aurangabad, Rafiganj
• Arwal: Arwal, Kurtha
• Jehanabad: Jehanabad Sadar, Makhdumpur (SC), Ghosi
• Nawada: Hisua, Nawada, Govindpur, Warsaliganj, Rajauli (SC)
• Bhagalpur: Bihpur, Gopalpur, Peerpainti (SC), Kahalgaon, Bhagalpur, Sultanganj, Nathnagar.
• Banka: Banka, Amarpur, Katoria (ST), Dhoraiya (SC), Belhar.
• Jamui: Sikandra (SC), Jamui, Jhajha, Chakai

Voting will be held on a total of 55 seats in Mithilanchal and Seemanchal also. The seats of Sitamarhi, Shivhar, Madhubani, Supaul, Purnia, Araria, Katihar and Kishanganj will be decisive for these regional voters. 21 seats of East and West Champaran belt of Champaran belt are also included in this phase.

The biggest challenge for NDA

In this phase, NDA’s challenge is the biggest, especially BJP is under pressure to save its seats. At the same time, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan also have to prove themselves in their strong areas. For the grand alliance, RJD and Congress will try to show signs of returning to power. The Grand Alliance had 50 out of 66 seats on these seats in 2020, while BJP won 42 seats, JDU won 20 and MGP/Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party won four seats.

Owaisi and other regional parties

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has strengthened its influence by winning five seats in Seemanchal and this time too it is eyeing about 19 seats, where Muslim voters are more than 30%. Other parties like CPI-MALE, BSP and independent candidates are also participating in this election.

Political parties intensified campaigning

Political parties have intensified the campaign for this phase. The Grand Alliance has mainly focused on the seats of Seemanchal and Mithilanchal, while the NDA has shown its strength on the UP-Border and Champaran belt. The administration has also made special arrangements for security on the day of voting and to make the election process systematic.

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The manifestos of both the ruling alliance party NDA and the opposition Grand Alliance have been released for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025. The government and the opposition have made a series of promises for the people of Bihar. Now the public wants to know which of the two parties has made more attractive promises to the voters.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Who talked about more employment?

NDA’s manifesto promises to provide 1 crore+ government jobs and employment. It has been promised to provide skill-based employment by conducting skill census and to establish Bihar as a global skilling center through mega skill centers in every district. Life insurance of Rs 4 lakh has been promised to auto-taxi-e-rickshaw drivers. Collateral free vehicle loan will be given to gig workers, auto-taxi-e-rickshaw drivers at the lowest interest rate.

At the same time, in the manifesto of the Grand Alliance, a promise has been made to give a government job to one member of the family. It has been claimed that after the formation of the government, the youth will start getting jobs within 20 months. Apart from this, the existing daily wage of Rs 255 under MNREGA will be increased to Rs 300 immediately. Labor census will be done.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Where is the greater benefit for women?

In the resolution letter of NDA, it has been promised to provide assistance of up to Rs 2 lakh to women under the ‘Chief Minister Women Employment’ scheme and to make one crore women ‘Lakhpati Didi’.
The Grand Alliance has promised in its manifesto that all Jeevika CM (Community Mobilisers) Didis will be made permanent and will be given the status of government employees. His salary will be fixed at Rs 30,000 per month. Under the Mai-Bahin Maan Yojana, women will be given financial assistance of ₹ 2,500 per month from December 1.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Who made big promises for the extremely backward classes?

NDA has claimed that assistance of Rs 10 lakh will be given to various business groups of extremely backward class. A high level committee will be formed under the chairmanship of a retired judge of the Supreme Court, which will assess the social and economic condition of different castes of the most backward class. All Scheduled Caste students studying in higher educational institutions will be given Rs 2,000 every month for the welfare of Scheduled Caste category, residential schools in every subdivision and special venture funds will be established for entrepreneurs.

The manifesto of the Grand Alliance promises that the law passed by the Legislature to increase the reservation limit of 50% in proportion to the population will be sent to the Central Government for inclusion in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Who is ahead in the promise of free electricity?

NDA has promised to provide 125 units of free electricity. At the same time, the Grand Alliance has claimed that every family will be given 200 units of electricity free of cost.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Who focuses more on education in Bihar?

NDA has promised that free quality education will be provided in Bihar from KG to PG. World class ‘Education City’ will be established and major district schools will be revamped with Rs 5000 crore.

On the other hand, the Grand Alliance promises that forms and examination fees for competitive examinations will be abolished and free travel facility will be provided to and from the examination centre. Apart from this, women’s colleges will be established in every sub-division.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Which alliance will benefit the poor class more?

Under the ‘Panchamrit’ guarantee, NDA will provide free ration, 125 units of free electricity, free treatment up to Rs 5 lakh, 50 lakh new permanent houses and social security pension to the poor.

The Grand Alliance has promised to provide gas cylinders to poor families for Rs 500. This is also a successfully tried move of Congress in many states. Apart from this, this time it has also been promised to give tablets to all the poor students of class 8-12th.

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Where will farmers benefit more?

In the manifesto of NDA, it has been said that by starting Karpoori Thakur Kisan Samman Nidhi, farmers will be given a total benefit of Rs 3000 per year, Rs 9000. Investment of Rs 1 lakh crore in agri-infrastructure and purchase of all major crops (paddy, wheat, pulses, maize) at MSP at Panchayat level. Will establish 5 mega food parks, double agricultural exports, achieve self-sufficiency in pulses production by 2030.

In the manifesto of the Grand Alliance, it has been promised to implement Farmer Insurance Scheme along with Crop Insurance Scheme. A promise has also been made to establish Makhana processing industry.

Aimim in bihar election: The politics of Bihar has started turning once again. Before the proposed assembly elections in October-November 2025, while the leadership of NDA Nitish Kumar is in efforts to save power, the opposition grand alliance has also intensified. Meanwhile, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) MLA and state president Akhtarul Iman has said that the party has started preparations to form a third front. They allege that AIMIM has not received any clear answer from the Grand Alliance so far, and they will not wait anymore. This situation indicates the scattering of Muslim votes, which can directly go in favor of NDA.

Aimim disappointed with the Grand Alliance now in preparation for the third option
AIMIM MLA Akhtarul Iman has said that his party wanted to join the grand alliance to stop communal forces in Bihar. A proposal was also sent for this, but neither yes nor refusal. He said that now we will not wait for the answer of the Grand Alliance and are moving towards the third front. AIMIM has started election preparations at its level.

Secular front, AIMIM had a dent in 2020
In the 2020 assembly elections, AIMIM, along with Mayawati’s BSP, Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Omprakash Rajbhar’s Subhaspa and other parties, formed the Grand Democratic Secular Front. AIMIM contested 20 seats and won 5 seats, while BSP got 1 seat. These seats included Muslim -dominated seats of Seemanchal, where AIMIM had made a direct dent in RJD’s vote bank.

4 MLAs later joined RJD, now only Akhtarul Iman left
However, after winning the election, four of the five MLAs of AIMIM joined Tejashwi Yadav’s party RJD. Now the party has only one MLA Akhtarul Iman, who is also the state president of the party. Despite this, AIMIM has established itself as a strong Muslim voice in the Seemanchal region.

The sharing of Muslim votes can be a headache for the grand alliance
About 17 percent of the 243 assembly seats in Bihar are Muslims. Most of these have traditionally been voting for RJD. But with the active AIMIM, Muslim votes can be divided in many areas including Seemanchal. This can cause loss to the Grand Alliance and indirectly to the NDA.

Election equation changing status
Creating a third front of AIMIM can also completely change the electoral equation of Bihar, not just the creation of a new political axis. If Muslim votes are disintegrated, then this direct loss will be done to RJD and Congress, which are considered the basis of the Grand Alliance. In such a situation, the NDA can get the benefit of weak opposition.

How many seats in Bihar influence the influence of Muslims?
Out of 243 seats in Bihar, there are 47 seats where Muslims are in decisive role. The number of Muslims in 47 seats is 50%. At the same time, Muslim vote is around 40% in 11 seats. In such a situation, all the parties will not avoid wooing the Muslim vote bank at all.