The initial surveys that came after the end of voting for Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have created a stir in the politics of the entire state. According to the Vote Vibe survey, this time the contest is considered to be very close. The race for power between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to be a tie. At the same time, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has also left its impact on a limited level, which has made the contest more interesting.

According to the latest data of Vote Vibe Exit Poll 2025, Tejashwi Yadav has been most liked for the post of Chief Minister. Although his lead is not much. According to the survey, Tejashwi Yadav was liked by about 35 percent people, while Nitish Kumar got the support of about 33 percent voters. Jan Suraj chief Prashant Kishore has become the choice of voters at around 9 percent. It is clear from this that the people of Bihar are still divided between Nitish and Tejashwi and the final result can go in any direction.

Women assured NDA of lead

This time women voters have once again expressed confidence in Nitish Kumar. The financial assistance given under Jeevika scheme has strengthened NDA’s hold among women. It is believed that women in rural areas voted for NDA in large numbers, which has given an additional edge to the alliance. This is the same factor that gave NDA the lead in the 2020 elections also.

Youth are inclined towards grand alliance

Young voters seem to be slightly inclined in favor of the Grand Alliance this time. Tejashwi Yadav focused on issues like employment, government jobs and migration throughout the election campaign. This is the reason why a large number of youth voted in the name of change. The popularity of the Grand Alliance can be clearly seen among the youth in urban areas like Patna, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur and Gaya.

NDA has slight lead, but result uncertain

According to the total vote percentage, NDA is said to be ahead by a slight margin. According to the survey, NDA is expected to get around 45 percent votes, while the Grand Alliance is expected to get around 42 percent votes. Jan Suraj Party seems to be getting around 5 percent votes. This small difference can completely change the results. Political analysts believe that if this trend continues then Nitish Kumar’s return is possible, but the final decision will be taken only on the day of counting.

Jan Suraj becomes the third force

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has registered its presence in the politics of Bihar for the first time. Although this party is not seen in the race for power, but it has made the contest triangular on many seats. Experts believe that even if Jan Suraj’s limited vote share is reduced by more than one party, it can have a big impact on the results.

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As Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are approaching, the political atmosphere has again started revolving around two prominent faces Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav. Senior journalist Sanjeev Pandey made a big prediction and said in a show that both the leaders are holding fast to their respective support bases. He said that Nitish is still in the field with the help of experience and organization, while Tejashwi has filled new energy in the youth. According to Sanjeev Pandey, instead of rejecting Nitish Kumar’s policies, Tejashwi Yadav has adopted the strategy of strengthening them.

He says that Tejashwi has promised to provide permanent allowance to women and make contract workers permanent while continuing schemes like women empowerment and livelihood. With this strategy, Tejashwi has increased confidence in both the youth and women sections.

Women voters are the biggest strength of Nitish Kumar

From 2005 to 2020, women voters were considered to be Nitish Kumar’s biggest strength. Schemes like prohibition and Panchayat reservation established him as the messiah of women, but now the equation seems to be changing. Sanjeev Pandey believes that the effect of prohibition has weakened and Tejashwi’s cash assistance schemes have given a new option to women. This can make a dent in Nitish’s traditional vote bank.

Nitish factor still alive in NDA

In the recent past, there was strong speculation that Nitish Kumar may now be marginalized in the NDA, but Pandey’s analysis says that Nitish is neither tired nor retired. His core vote bank is still with him and his political experience makes him unpredictable. He added that despite differences between BJP and JDU, Nitish’s role remains decisive.

Jungle Raj vs Employment Raj, the focus of the new generation changed

Sanjeev Pandey said that today’s youth does not see the incidents of Lalu Yadav’s era, but sees the reality of unemployment and migration. While the older generation remembers Jungle Raj, the new generation is making jobs an issue. He also said that voters in the age group of 18 to 30 years are now giving priority to economic opportunities over caste identity.

Employment and migration are the real center of election discussion

Unemployment crisis continues to be an election issue in Bihar. Sanjeev Pandey said that in Bihar, contract workers get Rs 6,000–8,000, whereas in South India the same work is done for Rs 18,000. In such a situation, the youth is hoping for change. He told that Tejashwi Yadav is trying to capitalize on this sentiment by giving the slogan of Employment Raj instead of Jungle Raj.

RJD’s new social engineering

This time, Tejashwi Yadav has included candidates from Bhumihar, Extremely Backward and Dalit classes in ticket distribution. According to Sanjeev Pandey, this step gives the message that RJD is no longer just a Yadav-Muslim party. This change broadens the image of RJD and tries to show the grand alliance as socially balanced.

Tejashwi is ahead in survey report but the contest is still open

According to new surveys, the public’s first choice for the post of Chief Minister is Tejashwi Yadav. Sanjeev Pandey said that about 31–32% people like Tejashwi, while Nitish Kumar has about 12–13% support. However, he cautioned that popularity and results are two different things. In Bihar, caste, women’s vote and the image of the local candidate sometimes change the whole picture.

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Bihar is expected to hold assembly elections in October-November, although the dates of elections have not been announced yet. As soon as the elections approached, the political stir is at its peak. Political parties have intensified their strategy amidst the controversy over the name cutting from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and the voter list. During this time, the C-Voter has released the latest survey, which shows which leader’s popularity is increasing among the public and who is left behind. According to the survey, this election can prove to be a big opportunity for the NDA vs India alliance as well as an independent face Prashant Kishore.

This time the election has been made interesting by the voter list controversy and SIR. Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav are also interacting continuously among the public through voters rights yatra. In such a situation, it is very important to know who the public wants to see as CM. Regarding this, C-Voter conducted three separate surveys in February, June and August 2025. Come, let’s see what the opinion of the public says.

C-Voter Survey Nitish Kumar and NDA’s faces
Nitish Kumar has been a big face of Bihar politics for a long time, but the C-Voter survey shows that his popularity is steadily declining. In February, 18% of people were liking him as CM Face. The figure remained at 18% in June, but by August it decreased to 15%. The second face of NDA is Chirag Paswan and Emperor Chaudhary. Chirag Paswan was at 4% in February, suddenly reached 11% in June, but has come to 10% in August. Samrat Chaudhary was 8% in February, 7% in June and 10% in August. This means that no major face in NDA has been able to replace Nitish Kumar at the moment.

Tejashwi Yadav public’s first choice?
Tejashwi Yadav is considered to be the biggest contender from India alliance. He has been at number one in all three stages of the survey. 41% in February, 37% in June and 31% in August. In this way, his popularity is seen to decline, but despite this, he is overshadowing Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Samrat Chaudhary. These figures show that the public’s inclination is still towards Tejashwi Yadav, even if the graph has come down a bit.

Will Prashant Kishore become kingmaker or player?
The most interesting face is that of Prashant Kishore. He got 15 percent of the votes in February, this figure increased to 16 in June and reached 22 with an increase of 6 percent in August. That is, his popularity is continuously increasing. If this speed is maintained then they can become a big challenge by November. Since they are not associated with any alliance, the question is arising whether they will be a kingmaker or try to become a king themselves.

Election Commission and Rahul Gandhi dispute
In this electoral atmosphere, Rahul Gandhi has also questioned the name of the voter list and the fairness of the Election Commission. In a survey, 59% of the people admitted that Rahul Gandhi’s allegations have power. At the same time, 67% of the people said that the Election Commission should answer Rahul Gandhi’s questions. This issue can directly affect voters and change the electoral equation.

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