Middle East Tensions: Even though India had reduced the import of crude oil from Russia after high US tariffs and pressure from President Donald Trump, New Delhi may now consider an alternative strategy amidst the current West Asia tension and supply uncertainty. India’s largest crude oil supplier in February was Russia, while Saudi Arabia was in second place. India’s imports from West Asian countries increased to about 1 million barrels per day, from about 7.7 lakh barrels per day in January.

Fluctuation in imports from Russia

According to global data and analytics firm Kpler, India imported about 1 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in February. In January this figure was around 1.1 million barrels per day. In December last year it was about 1.2 million barrels per day. Although there has been a slight decline in imports, Russia still remains the major supplier to India.

According to Kpler, imports from Saudi Arabia may continue at 6 to 7 lakh barrels per day in the coming years. This could be the most stable and largest import level from a single country in the last six years. According to Sumit Ritolia, Research Analyst, Refining and Modeling at Kepler, India’s oil dependence on West Asia has increased in the last two-three months, as supplies from Gulf countries have increased after the reduction in imports from Russia.

What do experts say?

At present, 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels of oil is reaching India every day from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait through the Strait of Hormuz. However, if regional tensions increase further, cargo movement through this sea route may be affected. Shipment uncertainty in West Asia has increased due to tensions related to Iran. In such a situation, Indian refiners can now look towards alternative sources like Africa, America or Latin America, so that the supply chain risk can be reduced.

India is currently adopting a balanced oil import strategy. Supply from Russia at competitive prices, stable supply from the Gulf countries and search for possible alternative sources The direction of the oil market in the coming months will largely depend on the geopolitical situation in West Asia and global prices.

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