Assembly elections are to be held in the Union Territory of Puducherry along with the states of Assam and Kerala on 9 April. Voting is in Tamil Nadu on 23rd April. Assembly elections in West Bengal will be held in two phases, voting is on 23rd and 29th April. Before this the opinion poll has arrived. Know here who seems to be gaining in which state, which party can win how many seats and whose government can be formed.

Opinion poll of Assam assembly elections 2026

Elections will be held in one phase in Assam. Voting is on 9th April. Chanakya Strategy has predicted a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress in vote share. According to this, BJP can get 83 to 90 seats. BJP alliance can once again form government in Assam. Talking about vote share, Congress is likely to get 39 to 44 percent votes, while BJP is likely to get 45 to 48 percent votes.

Chanakya Strategy Survey has shown the formation of BJP government in Assam. According to the survey, Bharatiya Janata Party can win 83 to 90 seats, while Congress can win only 30 to 36 seats. Others are expected to get 3 to 6 seats.

Opinion Poll of Kerala Assembly Elections 2026

According to Matriz Opinion Poll, Left Democratic Front (LDF) may get 62 to 68 seats in Kerala. United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to get 67 to 73 seats. BJP can win only 5 to 8 seats, while others are expected to get 3 seats. That means Bharatiya Janata Party is not seen in competition in Kerala.

The Congress led United Democratic Front will be happy to see this survey. Let us tell you that LDF is in government in Kerala for the last decade. The total assembly seats in Kerala are 140, of which 71 is the majority figure.

West Bengal Opinion Poll 2026

Opinion poll has increased the concern of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. According to the survey, there is a contest between BJP and TMC in the state. According to the opinion poll of MATRIZE, BJP can win 140-160 seats. TMC is expected to get 130-150 seats, while other parties can win 8 to 16 seats.

There are total 294 assembly seats in West Bengal. This time the election is a close contest. If we look at the vote share, the survey has estimated that Bharatiya Janata Party may get 41 percent votes and Trinamool Congress may get 43 percent votes. Although in the survey TMC can form the government once again, but BJP is not far behind and anything can happen.

Opinion Poll of Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026

NDA is likely to get majority in Tamil Nadu. DMK alliance may suffer loss. According to the opinion poll of MATRIZE, DMK alliance can get 102 to 115 seats, while NDA alliance can win 107 to 120 seats. TVK is expected to get 5 to 12 seats and others 1 to 6 seats.

There are 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, elections for which will be held in one phase. Voting is in Tamil Nadu on 23 April.

This BJP leader made this appeal to 60,000 Bengalis in Hyderabad regarding Bengal elections, statement regarding Mamata Banerjee goes viral

assam assembly elections (Assam Assembly Election Matrix Opinion Poll 2026) There is good news for BJP from the final opinion poll regarding. Actually, according to Matriz, BJP+ can get 92-102 seats in this assembly elections in Assam.

According to the survey of Matrize and Chanakya, the BJP-led alliance (BJP+) is in a strong position in the upcoming assembly elections in Assam and its chances of coming back to power or retaining power appear high. Both surveys show that the BJP alliance is ahead in both vote share and seats. The Congress alliance is lagging behind, while the impact of smaller parties is expected to be very less.

Increase in vote share (Matrize)
BJP+: 46%
Congress+: 36%
Others: 18%

According to Matrice survey, BJP alliance is getting support from more people. The Congress alliance is also in the contest, but is lagging behind. The votes of other small parties are less.

Estimate of seats (Matrize)
BJP+: 92-102 seats
Congress+: 22-32 seats
Other: 4-7 seats

In the estimation of seats, BJP alliance seems to be getting a clear lead. It may go near or above the majority mark. Congress alliance will remain in the role of opposition. Other parties may win very few seats.

Chanakya survey seat estimate
BJP+: 83-90 seats
Congress+: 30-36 seats
Other: 3-6 seats

Even in Chanakya’s survey, BJP alliance is looking ahead. The Congress alliance may definitely win some seats, but is not in a position to form the government. Although the election results may change due to last minute changes and local issues, the current surveys show that the contest is tilted in favor of BJP.

PM Modi held a rally in Assam today
In view of the Assam Assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a huge public meeting in Dibrugarh on Monday. During this, he strongly attacked the opposition. Seeing the huge crowd and enthusiasm of the people in the public meeting, the Prime Minister said that he has got the opportunity to come to Dibrugarh many times, but this time the zeal and enthusiasm seen is unprecedented. Addressing the public meeting, Prime Minister Modi said that this public support is a matter of concern for the Congress. Congress is already shocked and such pictures just before voting will devastate it further.

Bengal Election Opinion Poll: Even before the elections, the contest in West Bengal politics has reached a very interesting turn. Matriz’s latest opinion poll has clearly indicated that this time the fight is going to be straight, tough and will drag on till the last vote.

According to the survey, in vote percentage, Trinamool Congress may get 43% support, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may get 41% support and other parties may get 16% support. That means TMC definitely has a slight lead, but this difference is so small that the electoral picture can change at any time.

The special thing is that this difference of 2% can prove to be decisive on many seats. Whereas 16% ‘other’ votes can play the role of kingmaker in this election. In such a situation, it is clear that this time the contest in Bengal is going to be very tough.

‘Others’ played – whose game will it spoil?

In this close contest of Bengal, 16% vote share of ‘Others’ has become the biggest suspense. This camp includes parties like Congress, Left and Owaisi’s AIMIM, which are not directly fighting for power, but can have a big impact on the results.

Political equations show that these votes are traditionally considered anti-BJP, but their presence in many seats can also make a dent in TMC’s vote bank.

Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has also warned about this. He said, ‘In the last assembly elections, polarization of votes had cost us the price of defeat.’

This time AIMIM is contesting the elections in alliance with the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) formed by Humayun Kabir. It is believed that the AIMIM-AJUP alliance can affect the vote share in Muslim dominated seats.

At the same time, this election is mainly being seen as a direct contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In such a situation, this vote share of ‘others’ can become a factor that complicates the contest more than making any one party win. Now the focus is on in whose favor this 16% vote tilts and in whose favor it spoils the game.

16% of ‘Others’-Who is the kingmaker?

This pre-poll survey of ABP-Matrize is not just statistics but an indication of electoral trend. This shows that this time in Bengal, there is a direct fight between TMC and BJP, where no party can register a comfortable victory. At the same time, it is also clear that the final results will completely depend on the last stages of voting and the mood of the voters.

The most important role in this entire electoral equation is believed to be the 16% vote share of ‘Others’. This is the part that can ultimately decide the stance of power. Small parties and independent candidates, who are often ignored, can become real game changers this time. If this vote tilts towards any one big party, then the entire mathematics of seats can change in a moment.

Experts believe that this 16% vote will play an important role in giving a decisive lead in a close contest. This is the reason why big parties are now making different strategies to woo these voters – from local issues to regional equations, every aspect is being focused on.

It is clear that this time the victory will not be decided only by the big vote share, but by getting this decisive part of ‘others’ in our favor. This means that instead of strengthening one side, this vote share can play a more important role in spoiling the game of the other. Now the big question is whether the ‘other’ votes will spoil the equation this time too or will it give a decisive lead to any one party?

Increase in votes, but game stuck in seats

Interestingly, there is no direct correlation between the vote percentage and the estimates of seats. The figures indicate that the contest is as close in seats as it is in votes. According to the survey, Trinamool Congress may get 140 to 160 seats, while Bharatiya Janata Party may get between 130 to 150 seats. Whereas other parties are expected to get 8 to 16 seats.

This means that despite the lead, the path does not seem easy for TMC. BJP is very close and even a little vote can change the entire arithmetic of swing seats.

It is clear that this election is not going to be a story of one-sided victory, but is indicating a tough competition that will continue till the last stage, where the decision of every seat will be very important.

Difference of 2% votes, but decision of power

There seems to be a difference of only 2% votes between Trinamool Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, but this small gap can become the key to power. In electoral politics, sometimes small differences become the cause of big upsets, and Bengal is not an exception to this. On many seats in the state, victory or defeat has been decided by very few votes. In such a situation, a swing of 2% can change the mathematics of dozens of seats. This is the reason why both the parties are now in no mood to give any relaxation.

The campaign on the ground has intensified – from booth management to micro-level strategy, work is being done in detail on every aspect. It is clear that this time the contest will depend more on strategy and last-minute trends than on statistics, where every vote can prove to be decisive.

Also read: Assam Assembly Election 2026: ‘Women will get reservation, government called a special session of Parliament,’ PM Modi made a big announcement from Assam.

Opinion Poll 2026: There is intense political activity regarding the assembly elections to be held in four states of India – West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Meanwhile, opinion polls of the four states have come out, in which it has become clear which party or alliance is getting the lead in these four states. Elections are going to be held in two phases on 294 assembly seats in West Bengal, where CM Mamata Banerjee’s ruling party Trinamool Congress (TMC) is contesting with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while in Assam, which has 126 assembly seats, the Congress party is in the fray against the ruling BJP.

CM Stalin’s party DMK is going to compete with the NDA alliance of BJP and AIADMK for 234 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu, while the ruling left alliance LDF, UDF alliance with other parties including Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party are in the electoral fray to win 140 assembly seats in Kerala.

Whose government is being formed in Bengal according to the opinion poll?

According to the latest opinion poll of Matriz, the contest in West Bengal politics has reached a very interesting mode even before the elections. The figures revealed in the opinion poll are shocking for all the political parties. According to Matriz’s survey, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) may get 140 to 160 seats in the West Bengal Assembly elections with 43 percent votes. At the same time, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can win 130 to 150 seats with 41 percent votes, while other parties of the state can win 8 to 16 seats with 16 percent votes. The majority figure in West Bengal is 148. In such a situation, TMC definitely has a slight lead of 2 percent in the opinion poll, but this difference is so small that the electoral picture can change at any time.

Clean sweep for BJP in Assam in opinion poll

According to the survey conducted by Matrize and Chanakya, the BJP-led NDA alliance is in a strong position in the upcoming assembly elections in Assam and its chances of coming back to power or retaining power appear high.

According to the matrix, if we talk about vote share, BJP+ alliance can get 46 percent votes, Congress+ alliance can get 36 percent votes and others can get 18 percent votes. Talking about seats, BJP+ alliance is likely to get 92 to 102 seats, Congress+ alliance is likely to get 22 to 32 seats and others are likely to get 4 to 7 seats.

At the same time, according to Chanakya’s survey, in Assam, Bharatiya Janata Party alliance may get 83 to 90 seats, Congress+ alliance may get 30 to 36 seats and others may get 3 to 6 seats.

NDA’s star can shine in Tamil Nadu

According to the MATRIZE opinion poll shown on India TV, this time the star of AIADMK led NDA can shine in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections. According to the opinion poll, MK Stalin’s party DMK may get 102 to 115 seats in the elections. Whereas the NDA alliance of BJP and AIADMK is likely to get 107 to 120 seats. At the same time, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) of actor-turned-politician Thalapathy Vijay may get 5 to 12 seats and others are likely to get one to six seats.

Who will get power in the three-way contest in Kerala?

According to the MATRIZE opinion poll shown on India TV, the ruling Left alliance in Kerala is likely to get 62 to 68 seats, while the Congress-led UDF alliance is seen getting a lead in the elections with 67 to 73 seats. Whereas in the state, Bharatiya Janata Party can win 5 to 8 seats with 15 percent vote share and others are likely to win zero to three seats.

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The Election Commission on Sunday (15 March) announced the dates for the assembly elections of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. This year, voting is to be held on 824 assembly seats in five states. This time elections will be held in Bengal in only two phases instead of eight. Whereas elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will end in a single phase. Just after the announcement of the elections, an opinion poll also came. According to this, Bharatiya Janata Party can get a strong lead in Bengal. Similarly, the mood of the people of all the states has been gauged.

With the announcement of the dates of assembly elections, the opinion poll of IANS-Materize has come out, in which the opinion of the people of both the states has been taken regarding whose government will be formed in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Regional parties continue to dominate both the southern states, but new contenders seem to be challenging their supremacy. TVK led by actor-turned-politician Vijay seems to be attracting a large section of voters, while the BJP-led NDA in Kerala is expected to get double digit votes. However, this is not expected to have any significant impact on the election results.

How many seats can Vijay’s party get in Tamil Nadu?

According to the opinion poll, the AIADMK alliance seems to be getting the lead in Tamil Nadu and may get 114 to 127 seats, while the DMK alliance is expected to get 104 to 114 seats. Actor Vijay’s party TVK may get 6 to 12 seats. In vote share, AIADMK is expected to get around 39-40 percent votes and DMK is expected to get 37-38 percent votes.

Who can form the government in Kerala?

There is a tough contest between LDF and UDF in Kerala, but LDF seems to be getting a slight lead. According to the survey, LDF may get 61 to 71 seats and UDF may get 58 to 69 seats. The BJP led NDA is expected to get around 12-13 percent votes, but may get only around two seats.

BJP may get a strong lead in Bengal

Voting for 294 assembly seats of West Bengal will be held in two phases on 23rd and 29th April, while the results will be declared on 4th May. According to opinion polls, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC can return to power in the state for the fourth consecutive time. In the survey, TMC is expected to get 155 to 170 seats and 43-45 percent vote share, while BJP may get 100 to 115 seats and 41-43 percent vote share. Other parties are expected to get 5 to 7 seats and 13-15 percent votes.

Will BJP get an edge in Assam or will Congress become stronger?

According to the opinion poll, the BJP alliance seems to be getting a clear lead in Assam and it is expected to get 96 to 98 seats. Whereas Congress alliance can get 26 to 28 seats and others can get 2 to 8 seats. In vote share, NDA is estimated to get 43-44 percent, Congress alliance 39-40 percent and others 18-20 percent.

Also read: BJP released its first list for Kerala elections, fielded Rajeev Chandrashekhar and V Muraleedharan from this seat.