In the monsoon session of Parliament starting from July 20, an attempt will be made once again to pass the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill 2026 i.e. the Delimitation Bill. This bill was defeated by 54 votes in the budget session of April 2026. But in the last three months the entire political mathematics of Parliament has changed. Cracks have appeared in the opposition alliance, 37 MPs have broken away from four different opposition parties and joined the ruling party and some regional parties are ready to support with conditions. The question is whether NDA will be able to cross the two-third majority mark this time…

What is 131st Amendment Bill and why is it controversial?

This bill does two big things:

• Increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 850.
• To prepare the constitutional basis for implementing 33 percent women’s reservation (Nari Shakti Vandan Act) after delimitation.

According to the bill, the principle of seats in each state in proportion to its population will be brought back. The controversy is because southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh fear that increasing seats on the basis of population will reduce their political power. The states which have been successful in population control are troubled by their lack of representation.

April 2026: When the bill was dropped

Voting took place in the Lok Sabha on 17 April 2026. A total of 528 MPs cast their votes. To amend the Constitution, two-thirds majority i.e. 352 votes was required. The government got 298 votes, while 230 votes were cast in opposition. That means 54 votes were short.

Congress, TMC, DMK, Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar), SP, RJD and Left parties together defeated the bill. DMK chief M.K. Stalin had termed the bill’s defeat as a ‘victory for Tamil Nadu’.

What major changes took place in three months?

From April till now the mathematics of Parliament has completely changed. This is the biggest defection after the 1985 anti-defection law. 37 MPs have broken away from four opposition parties and joined the ruling party.

• TMC’s division: 20 MPs of Mamata Banerjee’s party rebelled and supported the NDA by forming a new party named National Common People’s Initiative (NCPI).
• Weakening of Shiv Sena (UBT): 6 MPs from Uddhav Thackeray’s group joined Eknath Shinde’s camp.
• Merger of AAP: 7 MPs of Aam Aadmi Party merged with BJP.

After these changes, the strength of NDA has increased from 292 to 329. At present three seats are vacant in the Lok Sabha, so the two-thirds figure has come down to 360. That means NDA is now just 31 votes away from the figure of 360. In April this difference was 62 votes.

‘Mission 360’: Where will the remaining votes come from?

The Central Government has named it ‘Mission 360’, that is, achieving two-thirds majority. NDA has its eyes on several opposition parties:

• DMK breaks ties with Congress: The party did not even accept sitting close to the Congress and boycotted the INDIA alliance meeting. Stalin clearly told his MPs, ‘The ideology of the party and the interests of Tamil Nadu will come before political alliances.’ They will consider issue-based support. The government hopes that if the guarantee of ‘increasing seats by 50 percent in all states’ is included in the bill, then the DMK can support it.
• NCP (Sharad Pawar) 8 MPs: Supriya Sule has made it clear that if the government gives a written guarantee of increasing 50 percent seats in every state, then NCP can consider support. However, he also said, ‘We do not have the text of the bill. When it happens, we will reply within 24 hours. NCP has not taken any official stand yet.
• Shiv Sena (UBT) in dilemma: Sanjay Raut has said that if the government includes the opposition’s amendments, they may reconsider.
• Togetherness of DMK and NCP(SP): If we get the support of both together, then NDA’s strength will increase from 329 to 359. The figure of 360 can be crossed with the support of some more regional parties like BJD and YSRCP.

Union Minister Ramdas Athawale claimed, ‘Now NDA has two-thirds majority. Women’s reservation and delimitation bill should be passed.

Opposition’s strategy: Trying to drop the bill

Opposition alliance INDIA is no longer as united as before. TMC has divided, Shiv Sena (UBT) has weakened, DMK has separated from Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) is putting conditions for support.

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has written a letter to the Prime Minister demanding a meeting of all parties. Kharge said, ‘The 131st Amendment Bill failed to get two-thirds majority in April. Now the government is bringing a revised bill, without seeing which no decision can be taken.

The immediate objective for the opposition is to keep the NDA below the 360-vote threshold. If the NDA fails to garner two-thirds support, the constitutional amendment will once again fail. In Parliament:

• 19th July: all party meeting
• 20th July: Monsoon session starts
• 21 July: NDA parliamentary party meeting (Prime Minister Modi will address)
• 13 August: session terminated

So will the delimitation bill be passed in the monsoon session or not?

Four big changes are completely changing the equation:

• Numerical Variation: NDA is now just 31 votes away from the figure of 360 with 329 MPs.
• Political changes: NDA has been strengthened by the rebellion/merger in TMC, Shiv Sena (UBT) and AAP.
• Strategic Changes: NDA can come closer with the conditional support of NCP(SP) and DMK.
• Bill Formula: The government is trying to allay the concerns of the southern states by guaranteeing ’50 percent increase in seats in all states’.

According to experts, now if NDA can bring 22 MPs from DMK and 8 MPs from NCP(SP), then the bill can be passed. If not, this session may prove to be as disappointing as April 2026. The immediate objective for the opposition is to keep the NDA below the 360-vote threshold. Even if the ruling coalition emerges as the largest group, failure to garner two-thirds support will prevent the passage of the constitutional amendment.

This big game is starting from July 20 and its results will rewrite the electoral map for the coming decades.

The monsoon session of Parliament is going to start from Monday (July 20). In this session, the government is preparing to bring many important bills in the House. According to the parliamentary bulletin of the Lok Sabha, some bills will be discussed, while there are plans to pass some after being introduced. This list also includes a bill to change laws related to industries as well as national honour.

First of all, there will be a discussion on the ‘Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2026’ and after that there will be a process to pass it. ‘Developed India Education Foundation Bill, 2025’ will also be an important bill of this session. After the report of the Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) on this bill is presented in the Lok Sabha, the process of discussing and passing it will move forward.

Income Tax (Amendment) Bill will also be presented

The government will also present ‘Income Tax (Amendment) Bill, 2026’ in the House. This bill is being brought in place of an ordinance. Along with presenting it, preparations are also being made to consider and pass it. Similarly, ‘Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Bill, 2026’ will also be brought in place of the ordinance. After presenting this bill, the government will try to get it passed in the same session.

‘Registration of Births and Deaths (Amendment) Bill, 2026’ will also be presented in the House. There is a plan to pass this bill also after discussion. ‘Prevention of Insults to National Honor (Amendment) Bill, 2026’ will also be introduced in Parliament to change the law related to national honour. On this also, the process of introduction, consideration and passing has been decided.

The ‘Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development (Amendment) Bill, 2026’ related to small and medium industries will also be introduced in this session. The government will try to pass it also in this session. Overall, the government’s focus in the monsoon session will be on pushing forward many important bills. According to the parliamentary bulletin of the Lok Sabha, along with discussion on these bills, in many cases, preparations have been made to pass them in this session itself. Therefore, the monsoon session is going to be very important this time.

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The monsoon session of Parliament is starting from 20 July 2026. The bills that the government is bringing this time can completely change the country’s politics, election system, reservation and power equations. On one hand, the government is preparing to pass its important bills, while on the other hand, the opposition is preparing to corner the government on issues like unemployment, inflation and NEET paper leak. Its Meanwhile, there have been such changes in parliamentary arithmetic, which have broken the back of the opposition…

How much has the game changed in Parliament since the budget session?

This part is the real game changer of this entire session. Parliamentary arithmetic has changed from the budget session (February 2026) to July 2026. NDA is strong and opposition ‘INDIA’ alliance has weakened.

Since the budget session of April 2026, there has been such a big upheaval in politics that the picture of Parliament has completely changed.

What changed in Lok Sabha:

aspect	Budget Session (April 2026)	Monsoon Session (July 2026)
NDA support	about 293 MPs	319 MPs (20 rebel TMC and 6 UBT Shiv Sena)
two-thirds figure	363 out of 543	360 (Basirhat, Shillong and Naugaon vacant)
NDA’s reach	298 votes (got in April)	potential 348
difference (by two-thirds)	54 votes less	just 12 votes less

3 big reasons for the strength of NDA:

• TMC’s division: 20 out of 28 MPs of Mamata Banerjee’s party have broken away and joined the National Common People’s Initiative (NCPI) and are supporting the NDA. Speaker Om Birla will take a decision on their merger.
• Weakness of Shiv Sena (UBT): 6 MPs from Uddhav Thackeray’s group joined Eknath Shinde’s camp.
• DMK-Congress alliance breaking: After Congress’s alliance with TVK in Tamil Nadu, DMK INDIA separated from the alliance. DMK’s 22 MPs will no longer be counted with the opposition. Although DMK has not joined the NDA, BJP hopes that it can provide issue-based support on select bills.

Changes in Rajya Sabha:

aspect	figure
total seats of the house	245 (currently 242)
Strength of NDA	Total 151 including 141 MPs and 10 nominated/independents.
simple majority	121 (cross)
two-thirds majority	163
lack of nda	just 11 votes less

The NDA has benefited from seven AAP MPs joining the BJP and winning 19 seats in the recent Rajya Sabha elections.

Which bills is the government bringing in the monsoon session?

1. Women’s Reservation Bill (Nari Shakti Vandan Act)

This is the same bill which was passed in the special session of Parliament in September 2023, but has not been implemented yet. Under this law, 33 percent reservation is to be given to women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. There is a big condition attached to it that this reservation will be implemented only when the process of delimitation is completed. The participation of women voters in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was 65.78%, which was slightly more than that of men (65.55%). This figure shows how big a force women have now become in electoral politics. Every party wants to show this bill in its favor.

2. Delimitation Bill

This could be the most explosive issue of this session. Delimitation means fresh distribution of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats on the basis of population. This process is to start after the 2026 census. There is strong opposition to this in the South Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. South India has succeeded in controlling population and they fear that their seats will reduce, while the states of North India will benefit from it.

3. One country, one election

With the 129th Constitutional Amendment Bill, the government is coming up with a big plan to hold elections for the Lok Sabha and all the state assemblies simultaneously. The committee headed by former President Ramnath Kovind had submitted its report to the government in March 2024, in which it was recommended. According to the report, holding simultaneous elections will save thousands of crores of rupees spent on elections every year and will eliminate obstacles in development work. For this, at least five articles of the Constitution (83, 85, 172, 174, 356) will have to be amended and for this two-thirds majority will be required. Opposition parties are calling it an attack on the federal structure.

4. FCRA Amendment Bill

By amending the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), the government wants strict control on foreign funding received by NGOs and religious institutions. Under this, provisions like reducing the period of FCRA registration, strict monitoring on the use of funds and criminal prosecution for violations can be brought. The government argues that this will stop foreign interference, while critics say that this will lead to harassment of social workers and institutions.

5. 130th Constitution Amendment Bill

This bill is the most shocking and discussed proposal of this session. Under this, if a Prime Minister, Chief Minister or Minister is found guilty in a criminal case and is sentenced to jail, he will automatically step down from his post within 30 days of the commencement of the sentence. Till now there is no such provision and convicted leaders try to remain in office. However, it will not be easy to pass it, because leaders of many parties themselves may fall prey to it.

Apart from this, Vikas Bharat Education Foundation Bill, Anti-Doping Bill, Bill to increase the number of Supreme Court judges and reforms in corporate law will be introduced.

On which issues will the opposition corner the government?

The opposition will corner the government on 5 big issues in this session:

• Unemployment: According to data from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in May 2026 was 8.1%, which is higher than 7.4% last year. This rate is even higher among youth in the age group of 20-24. The opposition will call it a failure of the government’s policies.
• Dearness: Food inflation is continuously breaking the back of the common man. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.1% in June 2026, but the inflation of food items has reached 7.4%. The prices of pulses, oil and vegetables are skyrocketing.
• Petrol-Diesel Prices: Due to the Iran-America war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have crossed $ 100 per barrel. This has had a direct impact on the retail prices of petrol and diesel, which have increased by Rs 8-12 per liter. This is a direct hit on the common man’s pocket and the opposition will not fail to corner the government on this issue.
• NEET paper leak scandal: The issue of paper leak of NEET exam held in May 2026 is still fresh. The future of lakhs of students has been affected by this and the Supreme Court is hearing this case. The opposition will strongly criticize the government on this issue and the demand for the resignation of the Education Minister will intensify.
• Rajnath Singh’s ‘lies’ controversy: Congress wants to initiate breach of privilege proceedings against Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. It is alleged that Rajnath Singh, during the discussion on Operation Sindoor, had said in the Lok Sabha that ‘no Indian soldier was martyred’, while the government later accepted the military casualties.

Will NDA be able to pass the bill?

There are two conditions for constitutional amendment:

1. Majority of total membership i.e. at least 272 MPs out of 543
2. Two-thirds of those present and voting, that is, if 500 MPs vote, then at least 334 votes.

Now see the current position of the government in Parliament:

• Current strength of NDA: 319 MPs
• Two-thirds figure: 360 (due to 3 seats being vacant)
• Difference: 41 votes

Where else can the government get votes?

• 22 DMK MPs (issue-based support).
• In April, NDA had got 5 votes separately.
• Support of other regional parties.

If everything goes well then NDA will have 346 votes. Only 14 votes will fall short.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah responded to the opposition’s allegation of ending democracy. He said, ‘No one has the power to eliminate democracy from this country, those who tried were eliminated by the public.