Crude Oil Prices: We often hear or see such news that the price of petrol and diesel may become cheaper in the coming days. But have you ever heard that the price of crude oil will become cheaper than a bottle of water?

It is being told that in the coming time, the price of crude oil in the international market may become less than the price of a bottle of drinking water. This is not an exaggeration, but an estimate made by global brokerage company JP Morgan. According to JP Morgan, the price of Brent crude may fall to $ 30 per barrel by March 2027.

Price of 1 liter less than Rs 18

If this price is converted into Indian Rupee at an exchange rate of around Rs 95 per dollar, then the price of one barrel will be around Rs 2,850. There are 159 liters in a barrel. According to this, the price of one liter of crude oil will be only Rs 17.90, which is less than the price of mineral water bottle which is usually sold between Rs 18 to Rs 20 per liter in Delhi.

This estimate of JP Morgan is very important for countries which are heavily dependent on crude oil imports, such as India, which imports about 86 percent of its crude oil requirement from other countries. JP Morgan estimates that the price of Brent crude could fall by more than 50 percent from the current level, which is currently a little above $62 per barrel. This decline is being expected because supply may increase more than demand at the global level.

Effect of oversupply will be visible

Even though global oil consumption is expected to increase continuously over the next three years, supply growth is expected to be much higher than demand, especially from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore). If there is more supply, its effect on the price will be clearly visible.

Worldwide oil demand is expected to increase by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025, taking total consumption to 105.5 mbpd. Growth is expected to remain stable in 2026 and may increase to 1.2 mbpd in 2027. However, JP Morgan estimates that supply will grow almost three times faster than demand in 2025 and 2026. By 2027, supply will exceed consumption, which will lead to oversupply and prices will fall.

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Petrol and Diesel may soon become much cheaper, because the big estimate of Global Bank JP Morgan has come out. According to the bank, in the next three years the world supply of oil is going to exceed its demand. For this reason, there will be excess Brent Crude Oil in the market, due to which its prices may fall by 50% to around $30 by the end of FY 2027. This estimate has come at a time when India is the second largest oil importer in the world. The Indian economy will directly benefit from the huge fall in prices. India’s crude oil import bill in the year 2024 is more than ₹12 lakh crore. If Brent Crude comes to $30, India can get huge savings of about ₹6 lakh crore. The biggest reason for this Demand-Supply imbalance is the strong production capacity of Non-OPEC+ countries. By 2027, almost half of the new supply coming to the market will be from outside OPEC+ countries. Due to this, global inventories are filling up rapidly. This year the world’s oil stock has increased at the rate of 1.5 million barrels per day, of which about 1 million barrels are stored in ships and China’s reserves. If Brent Crude falls to $30, India, the government and the common man will get huge benefits.

India oil and lng import: India’s third largest crude oil importer and consumer India can save up to Rs 1.8 lakh crore on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil imports. This has been revealed in the estimate of rating agency ICRA.

In the financial year ending 31 March, 2025, India spent $ 242.4 billion on crude oil imports. India meets the need for more than 85 % crude oil from imports. In addition, $ 15.2 billion is spent on LNG imports as almost half of the demand for LNG in India meets domestic production.

There can be so much savings on oil and LNG imports

In the beginning of this week, oil prices came to a four -year low of $ 60.23 per barrel amid increasing concerns over global supply amid uncertain demand. Rating agency Iqra has estimated that the average crude oil prices for FY 2026 (April 2025 to March 2026) will be within $ 60-70 per barrel.

In such a situation, savings of Rs 1.8 lakh crore on import of crude oil and Rs 6,000 crore on import of LNG are possible. A reduction in crude oil prices will cause savings, but the refiner may also face inventory deficit. In addition, the possibility of further increase in excise duty cannot be ruled out.

The common man also benefits

If this trend of softening on energy rates at the international level remains intact, then the general public of the country can also benefit from it. Petrol and diesel prices can be reduced in the coming days, this will also save the common man.

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Petrol diesel price hike: The Modi government announced to increase the price of petrol and diesel on Monday, 7 April 2025. The central government has increased by Rs 2 on petrol and diesel. The new rates on petrol and diesel will be applicable from 12 noon. The biggest thing is that this decision has been taken at a time when crude oil prices have reached the lowest level of three years worldwide.

Cheap crude oil

Talking about last week, the price of crude oil fell to $ 62 per barrel, which is the lowest rate since August 2021. The reason for this decline is the possibility of global economic recession and decrease in demand for oil. On Monday, the price of Brent crude was $ 63.23 per barrel, while the US’s Nymex crude fell 10 per cent to $ 62. Also, Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of its major grade ‘Arab Light’ for Asia for the second consecutive month. OPEC+ countries have also relaxed production cuts from this month, which can increase the supply in the market.

Questions arising in the country

On the one hand, the Government of India has increased oil prices, on the other hand, questions are being raised in the country that when the oil has become cheaper in the international market, then why the prices of petrol and diesel are not decreasing in India. According to the business line report, Congress leader Manish Tiwari also asked the government whether ‘dynamic pricing’ applies only when prices rise? The general public is also hoping that now the prices of petrol and diesel will decrease, but no clear indication has been received from the government so far. In contrast, the prices of petrol and diesel have been increased further.

Oil companies are earning money

The fall in crude oil prices is also affecting India’s oil companies. This can prove to be beneficial for oil marketing companies (OMCs) like Indian Oil, HPCL and BPCL, as their auto fuel marketing margin has reached Rs 13 per liter, which is usually between Rs 3.5 to 6.2 per liter. But if the government increases excise duty or reduces retail prices, then the profits of these companies may be affected.

Harmful for these companies

This decline can be harmful for companies like ONGC and Oil India. According to JM Financial, every $ 1 decline may reduce the income (EPS) of these companies by 1.5-2 percent. Also, if the price of oil remains below $ 70, then the investment of American shell oil companies will also be affected as their break-even price is $ 60-65 per barrel. At the same time, Saudi Arabia can also suffer losses, because their budget is balanced at the rate of $ 85 per barrel.

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