One about Bihar assembly elections survey Has surfaced. A survey conducted in six assembly constituencies told that the Bharatiya Janata Party -led NDA alliance and INDIA Whose hold in the Grand Alliance is strong here.

Ascendia Done ,Battle Off Bihar-2025, By name it survey Has done, PurniaMagadha, Bhojpur, BhagalpurSaran and Patna include. survey In NDA And apart from India alliance, political analyst Prashant Kishore Janasuraj The party has also been included. survey According to this, this time also the situation like 2020 is going to remain for NDA and Grand Alliance. However, the Janasuraj Party can do wonders in some places. Let’s know that 169 assembly of Bihar Seats But this survey What does it say-

Purnia
Purnia There are a total of 24 assembly seats. There are 46 percent Muslims here and Scheduled Caste has a population of 14 percent. In the last assembly election i.e. 2020, 12 out of 24 seats NDA Had received and Grand alliance Seven more other parties Done Had won five seats. That time NDA Vote share 36 Percent, Grand alliance 36 of Percent And 28 of other parties Percent Was. survey Talking about this time NDA There is no change in the situation, but Grand alliance Can get an increase as the effect of other parties may be reduced. Public Suraj The party’s influence is also less.

Magadha
Magadha There are a total of 26 seats in the assembly constituency and 10 here Percent Muslim and 31 Percent People Scheduled Are from caste. Here in 2020 Grand alliance Had won 20 of 26 Seats But he won, while NDA Had won 6 seats and there was not a single seat in others. survey According to 2025 election NDA Can get an edge and Grand alliance The seats may be reduced. However, mass Suraj The impact of the party is also less here. Talking about vote share in 2020 NDA Of 31 Percent Was, Grand alliance 41 of Percent And 27 for other parties Percent Had been.

Bhojpur
Bhojpur There are a total of 22 assembly seats, 9 of which Percent Muslim and 22 Percent People Scheduled Are from caste. Talking about the last assembly election NDA 2 28 Percent Won two seats with vote share, Grand alliance 40 Percent 19 and other parties with 32 with votes Percent Won a seat with vote share. survey According to this time NDA Can get an edge while Grand alliance Can lag and Janasuraj The effect of here is also less.

Bhagalpur
Bhagalpur 45.5 in Percent Population Muslims and 14 Percent Scheduled There are people of caste. There are a total of 12 seats, out of which in 2020 NDA Won 9 seats and Grand alliance She went to three seats. Other parties could not win a single seat. NDA Vote share 44 Percent, Grand alliance 38 of Percent And 18 of others Percent Was. survey According to this time NDA Can behind, Grand alliance Can be ahead and Janasuraj The situation depends on the candidates.

Saran
Saran There are a total of 24 assembly seats and 15 Percent Muslim and 15 Percent People Scheduled Are of caste. In 2020 election NDA 9 of Saran Seats But won and his vote share 36 Percent Was. Grand alliance 15 seats went to the account and 39 Percent The vote was share. At the same time, other parties did not get a single seat, while vote share 25 Percent Was. survey According to this time NDA And Grand alliance In case of someone shift Can’t be seen, but mass Suraj That there is a good grip here.

Patna
Patna I have 21 assembly seats. 7 here 7 Percent Population is Muslim and 22 Percent People Scheduled Are of caste. In 2020 election NDA 39 Percent Won 11 seats with vote share, while 38 Percent With vote share Grand alliance 10 Seats Winned on Other parties could not win a single seat and their vote share 23 Percent Was. Talking about 2025 assembly elections survey As NDA And Grand alliance There is no change in the situation, while people Suraj The grip is good here.

The politics of the country is at its peak regarding Bihar assembly elections. New surveys are also coming out on the day of this. Meanwhile, Amitabh Tiwari, founder of ASA India Company, stayed in Bihar for 10 days and tried to understand the situation going on very closely. During this, he maintained his focus on NDA, India alliance and Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj. Amitabh Tiwari spoke openly on Bihar’s politics on Bihar.

Meanwhile, the biggest question of this time in Bihar politics is whether Prashant Kishore (PK) party will be able to make a big impact or not. According to the discussion, a section of youth is attracted towards PK, but middle age and senior citizens are still in a position to flicker them. That is, they are just looking at at the moment.

Support Prashant Kishore’s party
According to the current survey, Prashant Kishore’s party is getting about 10-12% support in South Bihar (Bhojpur, Magadh, Munger, Bhagalpur), while this support is reduced to 8-10% in North Bihar (Purnia, Darbhanga, Kosi, Tirhut, Saran). This vote share keeps them in the discussion, but is much lower than 30-35% of the votes required to win a seat.

Impact of Grand Alliance vs NDA PK Factor
If you consider the last election (125 vs. 110 seats) as the basis, then this time there is no hope of major changes in the equation. Grand Alliance (RJD, Congress, etc.): Some seats in Magadh and Bhojpur may be reduced, but mild advantage in Munger and Bhagalpur is also possible. NDA (BJP-JDU) has a vote bank larger safe due to the ethnic equation (upper cast, Dalit, EBC). Overall, the biggest disadvantage can be to the Grand Alliance due to the arrival of PK. The reason is clear, whatever voter is angry with the current government, he usually goes towards the Grand Alliance, but due to PK, this vote can be distributed.

Seat equation and role of gardens
Prashant Kishore’s fate will depend to a large extent on how many strong rebel candidates they get from big parties (BJP, JDU, RJD, Congress). If a core voter comes with a rebel PK with a community (eg EBC, Brahmin, Rajput or Mahadalit), then the loss of NDA is also possible, but if we see the net effect, the Grand Alliance will get more shock.

What has changed in the caste equation?
Ethnic equations are always important in elections. In the current picture, the Muslim-Yadav (My vote bank) remains strong with the grand alliance. Upper cast, Dalit, EBC is largely with NDA. Koyri/Kushwaha society may break down a little bit. If the Grand Alliance takes the right candidate, then some part of this class can come towards them.

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Rcp singh: There is big news about former Union Minister RCP Singh, one of the leaders close to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. He may attend the Jan Suraj Party of Prashant Kishor on Sunday (May 18, 2025). Not only will he join Jan Suraj, but a few months ago, he will also merge what he had formed his party.

If sources are to be believed, a complete conversation has been held between Prashant Kishore and RCP Singh. For several days, the issue was being talked about between the two leaders. A press conference has been held in Patna by Jan Suraj Party on Sunday. Prashant Kishore himself will also remain in this PC. On this, it has been said by the Jan Suraj Party that, “Before the assembly elections, a big leader and party associated with the NDA are coming together before the assembly elections.”

Although we tried to take response from RCP Singh’s party on this whole matter, but could not be contacted. If their response comes, we will keep it too. On the other hand, a person associated with Jan Suraj told that RCP Singh is also going to live in Prashant Kishore’s press conference on Sunday.

RCP Singh announced the party on 31 October

Please tell that RCP Singh announced his party on 31 October 2024. While holding a press conference in Patna that day, he had said, “Today is Deepawali and Deep wants Asha, so I have named my party ‘Asa’ in the short, its fullform is ‘AAP’s voice’.”

After forming the party, former Union Minister RCP also started visiting his area (Nalanda). He was also talking on electoral issues by going among the people. Now the news of joining Jan Suraj has surprised everyone.

This news is coming at a time when assembly elections are to be held in Bihar. By the way, RCP had formed its party to contest elections only. Now it is being discussed in the political corridor whether RCP Singh did not trust the party formed? If there is politics at the moment, then anything can happen. The news of the party before the assembly elections is not a big deal.

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