The results of the assembly elections held in five states have completely changed the equations of the 2027 presidential elections. Especially the historic victory of BJP in West Bengal has had a deep impact. This is not a general political statement, but a simple game of electoral mathematics. BJP’s 293 MPs in the Lok Sabha, more than 140 MPs in the Rajya Sabha and majority in the assemblies of 21 states make its chances of victory almost certain. Let us know how?

Electoral College: The Soul of the Presidential Election

First of all, it is important to understand how the ‘mathematics’ of the presidential election works. Under Articles 54 and 55 of the Constitution, the President is elected by a special electoral college (Electoral College). This board includes all the elected MPs of both the Houses of Parliament (Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha), all the elected MLAs of the Legislative Assemblies of all the States and Union Territories. The thing to note is that MPs or MLAs nominated by the President or the Governor cannot vote in this election.

Now the interesting twist is that the value of every vote is not the same. According to the Constitution, the total value of votes of all MPs (Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha) and the total value of votes of all MLAs should be approximately equal. A formula is used to balance this. Where the value of an MP’s vote is fixed (it was 700 in 2022 and is likely to remain approximately the same in 2027).

The value of vote of an MLA is different in every state. This value depends on the population and number of assembly seats decided on the basis of 1971 census of that state. Therefore, the value of vote of an MLA from a large state like Uttar Pradesh (208 in 2022) was almost 30 times more than the value of vote of an MLA from a small state like Sikkim (just 7 in 2022).

Shock from Lok Sabha and ‘balm’ from assemblies

BJP had suffered a big setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party could not reach the majority mark (272) on its own and its number of seats reduced from 303 to 240. This direct loss had made a big dent in BJP’s vote bank in the electoral college by 44,100 votes. The opposition felt that perhaps the path for BJP would not be easy now. But, what happened after this was no less than a ‘Sanjeevani’ for BJP.

The way BJP and NDA performed in the consecutive assembly elections, not only healed the wound of the Lok Sabha, but also turned the entire tables of the Presidential elections. Especially, NDA’s performance in big states like West Bengal, Maharashtra and Bihar achieved this feat.

‘Mathematics’ of three states changed the whole picture

After Uttar Pradesh, the three assemblies with the highest vote value in the electoral college for the Presidential election are those of Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar. NDA’s position in these three states has become stronger than ever:

1. Maharashtra: At the time of 2022 presidential elections, the strength of NDA was about 150 MLAs in the 288-member assembly. Today this figure has increased to 237.
2. Bihar: The number of NDA MLAs in the 243-member Assembly has increased from 125 last time to 202.
3. West Bengal: This was the biggest game-changer. BJP registered a landslide victory on 207 seats in the 294-seat assembly and formed its government for the first time in the state. Last time it had only 77 MLAs.

How does the mathematics of victory look now on paper?

Now let’s come to the real math, which shows how easy it is to win. The total vote value of the electoral college in the 2022 presidential election was 10,86,431. This total vote value may increase slightly with the inclusion of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in the 2027 elections, but for victory, more than 50% votes will have to be achieved.

Now let us look at the current strength of NDA:

Power in Parliament:

• BJP alone has 240 MPs in the Lok Sabha. NDA has the support of 293 MPs along with allies like TDP (16) and JDU (12).
• BJP’s number in Rajya Sabha has increased to 113 and the entire NDA has around 140 to 148 MPs. This in itself is a majority figure.

Dominance in Assemblies:

• Out of 28 states of the country, NDA is now in power in 21 states, out of which BJP alone is in power in 15 states.
• Thousands of MLAs from these 21 states are with NDA today.

In the Presidential elections, the total vote value of the MLAs of Uttar Pradesh alone is more than 83,800 and Yogi Adityanath’s government is firmly in power in the state.

If all the NDA MPs and MLAs vote on party lines, the alliance comfortably has more than 50% of the votes required for victory. The increase in the Assemblies has more than compensated for the loss in the Lok Sabha.

So is the path at all easy?

Yes, but according to the current data and the new political equation, the path to victory for BJP and NDA in the 2027 presidential elections seems very easy. As of today, NDA has such a strong numerical strength in the electoral college that it can easily send the candidate of its choice to Rashtrapati Bhavan. However, it is too early to consider anything completely ‘fixed’ in politics. Sometimes cross-voting, dissent within the coalition or a major political upheaval can change the game.