The announcement of Raghav Chadha and 6 other Rajya Sabha MPs leaving Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and joining BJP has brought a major upheaval in Indian politics. While this development has raised serious questions on the future of AAP, it has also opened doors to new possibilities for BJP in Punjab and national politics. After this upheaval, 4 scenarios are being created, about which you will know in the explainer…

Scenario 1: Modi cabinet will be expanded, new people will get ‘gift’

At present, no confirmed news of immediate expansion of Modi cabinet has come to light. Political expert and CSDS professor Sanjay Kumar says, ‘When a group of seven MPs join the party, especially when it includes young and vocal faces like Raghav Chadha, it has been an established political tradition to ‘reward’ them by giving them a place in the cabinet. This step will not only serve to woo the leaders who have defected, but will also give a strong signal to the disgruntled leaders of other parties to join BJP. If we look at the history of BJP, the party has often given important responsibilities to those who have joined the party on a large scale, however, giving a place in the cabinet is a complex equation that depends on caste, regional and political balance.

Scenario 2: BJP gets a big face in the form of Raghav in Punjab elections.

Sanjay Kumar says that this is the most important question and the answer to it can largely be ‘yes’. With Raghav Chadha joining BJP, the party can get that big ‘young Sikh face’ in Punjab, which it was missing for a long time.

Punjab BJP President Sunil Jakhar had admitted in an interview a few days ago that the party did not have any local big face in the state and then he had said, ‘Our face in Punjab and India is Prime Minister Narendra Modi and our ideology.’ Apart from this, he also said that once the party contests all 117 seats alone, the leadership will develop automatically.

According to Sanjay Kumar, Raghav Chaddha can now fill this gap. He is a well-known face, comes from Punjab, his working style in Parliament has been praised and he has the ability to remain in the media headlines. Looking at the 2027 assembly elections, BJP can project him as its main face in Punjab, especially when the party is building the narrative of ‘Punjab ka Apna Betaa’ against the ‘outsider’ leadership (Arvind Kejriwal) of the Aam Aadmi Party.

Scenario 3: AAP party’s last innings completed in Punjab

Sanjay Kumar believes it is too early for the AAP party to call ‘game over’ in Punjab, but it definitely signals ‘the beginning of the end’ for AAP. Punjab BJP President Sunil Jakhar has already said that ‘Raghav Chadha episode signals the beginning of the end of AAP in Punjab and the countdown to the extinction of AAP as a recognized party has begun.’

There are 3 big reasons for this:

1. Organizational Weakness: Punjab is your last stronghold. Defection on such a large scale will break the morale of party workers and local leaders, which will weaken the party at the grassroots level.
2. Already released developments: Jakhar had already mentioned the disintegration of AAP and cases like the controversy related to Laljit Singh Bhullar, Harmeet Singh Pathanmajra arrested on rape charges and the distance of Raghav Chadha as evidence of the party’s decline.
3. Charge of external leadership: BJP is already accusing AAP of being an ‘outsider’, which is proving effective among the people of Punjab.

However, being in power, AAP still has resources and government machinery at its disposal. She will try her best to handle the situation, but this big setback will make her path extremely difficult in the 2027 elections.

Scenario 4: AAP gets wiped out with the departure of 7 out of 10 MPs

Mathematically speaking, this is a devastating loss for ‘AAP’, which would be like being ‘cleaned up’…

• Position in Rajya Sabha: AAP had a total of 10 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. After the resignation of 7, now only 3 are left. This will almost eliminate the party’s voice and legislative influence in the Upper House. Additionally, as per the rules, MPs who defect will not face disqualification as they represent a ‘two-thirds’ majority of the party, a safe passage under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution.
• National Party Status: This mass resignation is a big threat to AAP’s national party status. To give this status, the Election Commission considers many factors including the number of MPs in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha. Due to the departure of such a large number of MPs, this status may come under review.
• Symbolic damage: It is not just a matter of numbers. The leaders who left the party include prominent faces like Sandeep Pathak (National General Secretary), Swati Maliwal (former DCW President) and Harbhajan Singh (former cricketer). This disintegration is a message that there is deep dissatisfaction within the party with its own top leadership. Raghav Chadha said, ‘The party has deviated from its goals and is working for personal gain.’ Publicly exposes this internal discord.

The defection of Raghav Chadha and his colleagues creates an existential crisis for the Aam Aadmi Party. This development raises a big question on the political future of the party not only in Punjab but also at the national level. At the same time, this is a strategic victory for BJP, which can give it a strong local face and organizational edge in Punjab.