86 MLAs from Jammu and Kashmir exercised their franchise on Friday (October 24) in the elections for four Rajya Sabha seats. While one vote was cast through postal ballot. Now all eyes are on the counting of votes to be held at 5 pm today. The grand alliance of National Conference, Congress, PDP, CPIM, AAP, AIP and five independent MLAs is all set to achieve a massive victory in the elections and prevent BJP from winning the only seat which it was expected to win easily.

According to available information, 86 MLAs voted in the Rajya Sabha elections. While People’s Conference President and Handwara MLA Sajjad Lone did not participate in the voting. Two seats are vacant due to the resignation of Omar Abdullah from Budgam and the death of Devinder Rana from Nagrota seat.

Sources have confirmed that the postal ballot of AAP MLA Mehraj Malik, who is in custody, has also reached the returning officer. He will be included in the counting of votes. The returning officer said, “Polling has ended. But voting will formally close at 4:00 pm.”

With the support of National Conference from Congress, People’s Democratic Party, CPI(M) and independent MLAs, the number of MLAs has increased to 58. These numbers are enough to win all four seats.

Given the claims of the ruling coalition MLAs and independent MLAs, especially Sheikh Khurshid and Shabbir Kuli, the chances of BJP winning even a single seat seem slim. The alliance has 29 votes each for the third and fourth seats, while BJP has 28 votes for its candidate.

However, the BJP can win the seat only if MLAs from the alliance factions – National Conference, Congress, PDP or Independents – cross-vote. The People’s Conference’s decision to stay away from the election was primarily motivated by a desire to avoid the blame of any cross-voting and to distance itself from both the NC and the BJP.

Today i.e. before the Rajya Sabha elections to be held on 24th October, the stir in the politics of Jammu and Kashmir has intensified. Congress has announced support to the candidates of National Conference (NC). With this decision, NC has got an initial lead and at the same time the equation is creating new difficulties for BJP.

Awami Ittehad Party also announced support

The path seems to be getting easier for the National Conference in the Rajya Sabha elections. After Congress, now Awami Ittehad Party has also announced its support to NC. Awami Ittehad Party MLA Sheikh Khurshid said that “this vote is a compulsion to keep BJP away”. After his statement, BJP’s chances of winning the fourth seat seem to be almost over.

Big change in attitude of Sajjad Loan

Jammu and Kashmir Deputy CM Surendra Chaudhary has claimed that Sajjad Lone will also vote for the NC candidate. He said that the decision Sajjad had taken earlier to abstain from voting has now been changed. This change further strengthens the atmosphere in favor of the National Conference, because earlier it was believed that Lone’s neutrality could give indirect benefit to BJP.

National Conference has clear lead in statistics

As per the current equation, the ruling National Conference alliance now has the support of a total of 59 MLAs. On the other hand, BJP has only 28 MLAs. National Conference already had the support of 6 Congress, 3 PDP, 1 CPM and 6 independent MLAs. Now with the support of Sheikh Khurshid and Sajjad Lone of Awami Ittehad Party, this number has become decisive. Due to this, the victory of National Conference on Rajya Sabha seats is considered almost certain.

National Conference spokesperson Imran Dar will be the party’s official candidate for the fourth Rajya Sabha seat. The party gave this information in its X post. Earlier, the National Conference itself had announced candidates for three seats. There is an alliance between Congress and National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir. Congress refused to contest Rajya Sabha elections. National Conference had earlier declared Chaudhary Muhammad Ramzan, Sajjad Kitchlu and Shammi Oberoi as candidates for Rajya Sabha.

Why did Congress refuse to contest elections?

Let us tell you that Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress President Tariq Hamid Karra said on Sunday (October 12) that his party will not participate in the Rajya Sabha elections to be held on October 24 for four seats in the Union Territory, because the alliance partner National Conference refused to give him a ‘safe seat’. Karra said that it has been unanimously agreed that Congress will not contest the Rajya Sabha elections.

JKNC State spokesperson @ImranNDar will be the official Party nominee for the 4th Rajya Sabha seat.

— JKNC (@JKNC_) October 13, 2025

Along with this, he said that the central leadership of Congress had demanded one of the two seats of Rajya Sabha for which separate elections are going to be held, but the National Conference offered the party one of the two seats for which elections are going to be held under a single notification. Karra said, “Keeping this in mind, all the participants present in the meeting were of the opinion that seat four is not as safe as seat one or two. It was unanimously decided that we will not field our candidate on the fourth seat. We will leave this decision to our alliance partners as to what they think about it.” “Since we were not offered a reserved seat, we do not want to contest from the fourth seat,” he said.

The Election Commission (ECI) announced elections for four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday (September 24). According to the Numberbal in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance can win 3 seats. At the same time, BJP can get a seat.

There are a total of 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, out of which two Badgam and Nagrota are currently vacant. In such a situation, the actual number of House becomes 88. It also includes Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLA Mehraj Malik, who is currently in custody under the Public Safety Act (PSA).

What is the mathematics of seats?

The NC, Congress, CPI (M) and Independent MLAs supporting the coalition are 53. The alliance consists of 41 NC, 6 Congress, 5 Independents and 1 CPI (M) MLAs.

BJP has 28 seats. Apart from this, 6 MLAs (from small parties and independents of Kashmir) are neither with BJP nor with alliance. The group consists of 3 PDPs, 1 People’s Conference and 2 Independents (Shabir Kule and Sheikh Khurshid). When connecting Mehraj Malik, this number becomes 7.

Based on the current number, the NC alliance will easily win the first two seats, as it has 53 MLAs, while the BJP has 28. If the BJP does not field candidates, then both these seats will win the National Conference alliance unopposed.

The third and fourth seats will be decided from the joint elections. The NC alliance will get 29 first preference votes for the third seat, which will save 24 second preference votes for the fourth seat. The BJP will have 28 votes, so it is in a position to win the fourth seat.

PDP, People’s Conference and Independent MLAs will not show much impact in elections as they live against both NC and BJP. There is also a possibility of cross-voting.

Which ticket contenders?

Sources in the National Conference said that Dr. Farooq Abdullah and Sajjad Kichlu are at the forefront of the party’s race.

The Congress also wants a seat as a part of the coalition. The party can field a candidate from Jammu region or send an existing MLA from South Kashmir to Rajya Sabha.

If NC decides to field candidates on the fourth seat, then it can take off a young face from South Kashmir, so that he maintained his grip, where he won 10 out of 16 seats in the last election.

The BJP can keep its strategy secret till the last time. The party can take off a former MLA or a new face. Sunil Kumar Sharma, who played an important role in BJP’s victory in the Chenab Valley, will play a major role in making the party’s election strategy.

Seats are vacant since 2021

Biennial elections for four seats of Rajya Sabha from Jammu and Kashmir will be held on 24 October. These seats are vacant since 2021. The Rajya Sabha elections for the four seats of Jammu and Kashmir are being held in the Union Territory of about one year after the assembly elections. MLAs elect Rajya Sabha members of their respective states.

Since February 15, 2021, the Union Territory does not represent the upper house of Parliament, the day Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmed Lave completed their term. Two other members, Fayaz Ahmed Mir and Shamsher Singh Manhas completed their term on 10 February the same year.

Announcing the program, the Election Commission said that the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state has been divided into union territories including Jammu and Kashmir (including Assembly) and Ladakh (Legislative Assembly). According to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, four current members of the Rajya Sabha representing the state of Jammu and Kashmir will be considered elected to fill the seats allotted to Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory.

All four seats were lying vacant since the end of the tenure of the existing members, as the essential electorate was not available to hold elections during the vacancies. The Commission said that after the formation of the state assembly of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, an electoral college is required to hold biennial elections. The counting of votes will take place on the evening of 24 October, one hour after the voting ends.