Elections are to be held for five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar. Each candidate needs 41 votes to win. Given the strength of 202 MLAs in the 243-member Assembly, while it will be easy for the NDA to win four seats, it will need the support of only three additional MLAs for the fifth seat.

Two out of five Rajya Sabha seats are fixed for Nitish Kumar’s party JDU. Seats are also fixed for BJP. BJP can stake claim on the fifth seat from one of its allies. In such a situation, a party like BJP will have to depend on AIMIM. In such a situation, the question is whether Owaisi’s party will be ready for this?

The problem is stuck on the fifth seat itself.

On the other hand, RJD led grand alliance has 35 MLAs. To send at least one representative to the Rajya Sabha, it will need the support of six MLAs. This is where the five MLAs of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the lone MLA of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) can prove to be the key to the fifth seat for both the NDA and the RJD-led alliance.

Of the total seats of the Grand Alliance in Bihar Assembly, RJD has 25 members, Congress has six, CPI (ML) (L) has two and CPM and Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) have one member each.

What is the demand of AIMIM?

On the Rajya Sabha elections, Bihar AIMIM President Akhtarul Iman says, “If the people of the Grand Alliance work wisely, they can win (a Rajya Sabha seat). We have said that this time give a chance to AIMIM because we do not have any representation in the Upper House yet. The ideology you have is our ideology too… I am seeking support.”

RJD MLA said- Hina Shahab should get a chance

To woo AIMIM, RJD MLA Bhai Virendra has said that it is his wish that Shahabuddin’s wife Hina Shahab be given a chance from RJD. The logic behind this thinking of brother Virendra is that AIMIM will not have any objection to fielding a Muslim candidate and the MLAs will support it.

On the other hand, when journalists talked to Shahabuddin’s wife Hina Shahab and asked her this question, do you want to be sent to Rajya Sabha? On this he has said that this is not an issue. However, he definitely said that we are with the party and we will continue to work to further strengthen the party.

Also read- NDA leader Jitan Ram Manjhi’s big statement regarding Rajya Sabha seat, ‘We were told that…’

Elections will be held on five vacant Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar. All these five seats are going to become vacant on 9th April. In such a situation, it remains to be seen who will go to Rajya Sabha from which party this time, but open statements have started being made in NDA. Demands from the leaders of constituent parties in NDA have started rising. Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi has also now given his reaction on this.

While talking to the media in Patna on Monday (February 23, 2026), Jitan Ram Manjhi told that he was promised a seat in Rajya Sabha. However, Jitan Ram Manjhi also clarified that he will not make demands but will wait till the last moment to decide whether he is given a seat or not.

‘I don’t think… the leadership will go back on its word’

Jitan Ram Manjhi told reporters, “We have not demanded… We were told that you will be given two Lok Sabha and one Rajya Sabha seat. I do not think that our leadership will go back on its word. We will wait till the last breath for his words. We will not demand, let’s see whether they give or not…”

#WATCH Patna, Bihar: Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi said, “We have not made demands. We were told that we will be given 2 Lok Sabha and one Rajya Sabha seat. I do not think our leadership will go back on its word. We will wait till the last. We will not make demands, we will see whether they give or… pic.twitter.com/G53azsKlhy

— ANI_HindiNews (@AHindinews) February 23, 2026

Before Jitan Ram Manjhi, his party leader Rajesh Kumar had already told ABP News that Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) needs one seat. He said that his party is underestimated in NDA. Only six seats were won during the assembly elections (2025). Our leader Jitan Ram Manjhi has been raising his voice, so our party is also claiming for a seat (for Rajya Sabha).

Let us tell you that NDA’s victory is certain on four out of five seats. There is a fight for a seat. Asaduddin Owaisi’s party (AIMIM) says that it wants to give its candidate. Whereas RJD says that AIMIM should give its support and Hina Shahab (Shahabuddin’s wife) should be sent to Rajya Sabha. However, on behalf of RJD, MLA Bhai Virendra has said this as his personal point. Now we have to see what happens next.

Also read- Rajya Sabha elections: Does Jitan Ram Manjhi want a seat? Statement increasing tension in NDA

All political parties have started preparations for the five Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant in Bihar. While NDA is getting four seats, the opposition is trying hard to get one seat. The formula for this has started being set. RJD MLA Bhai Virendra has given a big statement regarding this and also claimed victory.

Brother Virendra gave his reaction on this to journalists on Monday (February 23, 2026). Regarding the Rajya Sabha elections, he said, “The formula will be set… Our personal opinion is that any Akaliyat (minority) should be given a seat. Especially if Hina Shahab is given the seat, then we will take away the seat.”

‘When election time comes, the formula…’

On this question, AIMIM is saying that we will give our candidate. On this, brother Virendra said that everyone says this, but when the time of elections comes, a formula has to be set. So we do not think that AIMIM will oppose if we field the candidate we want. If she (Hina Shahab) is fielded, she will take the seat. It is clear from the statement of brother Virendra that he has set a formula for support from AIMIM.

However, AIMIM’s Bihar state president and MLA Akhtarul Iman has said that we will field our candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections. He has sought the cooperation of opposition parties for this. He says that if communal forces are to be stopped then the opposition should support them.

Who is Hina Shahab? (Who is Hena Shahab?)

Hina Saheb is the wife of former MP Shahabuddin. At present Osama Shahab, son of late leader Shahabuddin, is an MLA from RJD. For the first time, RJD gave ticket in the 2025 assembly elections and they won. If we talk about Hina Shahab, she has not even gone to Rajya Sabha. Contested Lok Sabha elections since 2009 on RJD ticket but never won. Independents contested in 2024 but still lost. Let us tell you that Shahabuddin never lost an election. He became an independent MLA for the first time while in jail.

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Five seats are falling vacant in Rajya Sabha from Bihar. The seat of Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) National President Upendra Kushwaha will also be vacant on April 9. BJP had sent him to Rajya Sabha from its quota. Now it remains to be seen whether BJP again sends Upendra Kushwaha to Rajya Sabha from its quota or not, but a big claim has been made by the party. On Saturday (February 21, 2026), a party leader told about the deal with BJP.

Party spokesperson Ram Pukar Singh told ABP News that it is our right and we are saying with this right that Upendra Kushwaha should go to Rajya Sabha again. Ram Pukar Singh said that we are part of NDA. There are five parties in NDA, JDU, BJP, HAM, RLM and LJP Ram Vilas. When the seats were being distributed in the Assembly elections (2025), it was decided with the BJP that one Rajya Sabha and one Legislative Council member would be made from our party.

‘It was decided before BJP’

The RLM leader said that this matter was decided before BJP. On the basis of this condition, it is our right that our leader Upendra Kushwaha should be sent to Rajya Sabha this time also. RLM workers worked hard on all 243 seats of Bihar. The result is that we (NDA) won 202 seats. Our party and our leader Upendra Kushwaha are considered to have made a big contribution in this.

‘Everyone makes their own demands’

When asked whether Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party and Chirag Paswan’s party will also ask for one seat each? On this, Ram Pukar Singh said that everyone makes demands on their own, but we are firm on what we had decided with the Bharatiya Janata Party. BJP had promised to repeat our leader Upendra Kushwaha. What if it is not sent? On this he said that this is a matter of top leadership. Leaders of all the constituent parties of NDA will sit and further decisions will be taken.

Also read- Bihar: Will Pawan Singh go to Rajya Sabha? 5th seat will become the biggest political battlefield, what is the mood of BJP?

2026 is going to be a year of big change in Rajya Sabha. Around 72 to 75 seats are getting vacant throughout the year, which will happen due to retirement in April, June, July and November. Currently in February 2026, out of total 245 seats in Rajya Sabha, BJP has 103, Congress has 27, Trinamool Congress (TMC) has 12, AAP has 10, DMK has 10, BJD has 7, YSRCP has 5 and AIADMK has 7 seats. Nominees are 7 and total NDA strength is around 121, while INDIA block has 80 seats. But this figure is going to change significantly due to the coming elections.

NDA is expected to gain 7 to 9 seats, due to which their strength can reach 145. At the same time, INDIA block may lose 5 seats, which will bring their number to around 75.

On which 37 seats of Rajya Sabha will elections be held?

First of all, on March 16, 2026, elections are being held for 37 seats, which are from 10 states. 7 from Maharashtra, 4 from Odisha, 6 from Tamil Nadu, 5 from West Bengal, 3 from Assam, 5 from Bihar, 2 from Chhattisgarh, 2 from Haryana, 1 from Himachal Pradesh and 2 from Telangana. These seats are becoming vacant in April. Another 35-38 seats will be included in the remaining elections of the year, which are from a total of 22 states, such as 10 from Uttar Pradesh, 4 from Karnataka, 4 from Gujarat, 4 from Andhra Pradesh.

Where will BJP benefit?

The recent assembly elections have strengthened the position of NDA. For example, NDA has 228 MLAs in Maharashtra (BJP 131, Shiv Sena-Shinde 57, NCP-Ajit 40), which can win 4-5 out of 7 seats, i.e. more than before. NDA may get one extra seat in Bihar, where earlier there were 3, now 4. 3 gains in Andhra Pradesh, 1 in Gujarat, 2 in Odisha, 1 in Rajasthan. These gains come from assembly strength, like NDA won 2025 elections in Maharashtra, NDA is strong in Bihar, BJP in Haryana, BJP in Jharkhand. However, there may be loss of 1 seat each in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.

What is the complete mathematics of the strength of the Assembly in Rajya Sabha seats?

Members (MPs) of the Rajya Sabha are elected by the voting of the elected MLAs of the state assembly. That is, which party will be stronger at the center depends on how many MLAs that party has in the assembly of each state. If your party’s strength increases in the Assembly, your seats in the Rajya Sabha also increase.

Rajya Sabha seats are decided in every state. Like 19 seats from Maharashtra, but elections are held on some seats every year, when the old members retire. To win an election, every candidate needs a certain number of votes, which is called ‘quota’.

How to calculate this quota?

The formula is very simple: Quota = (Total MLAs) / (Seats +1) +1.

The members of Rajya Sabha choose the elected members of the Legislative Assembly, hence the quota is decided by the number of MLAs in each state. This is so that votes for each seat are distributed equally and a party can win more seats with more votes. If a candidate gets even one vote less than the quota, he loses.

Understand from the example of Bihar: There are a total of 243 MLAs in Bihar and elections are to be held on 5 seats. Quota: 243 ÷ (5 + 1 = 6) = 40.5, then +1 = 41.5, but rounding to 42 votes per seat. NDA has 202 MLAs, so 202 ÷ 42 ≈ 4.81 i.e. 4 seats. Earlier the strength of NDA was less, so 120 ÷ 42 ≈ 2.85 i.e. only 2-3 seats. But NDA made a strong hold in Bihar in the recent elections, hence there will be a gain in Rajya Sabha. If any MLA cross-votes or supports independent, then NDA can also get the 5th seat.

Which parties will be at loss or gain?

Congress and INDIA block will suffer the most as 5 to 6 seats may be reduced. Like Congress may lose 1 seat in Gujarat, Trinamool may lose in West Bengal, Congress may lose 1 seat in Karnataka. BJD 1-2 less in Odisha, YSRCP 3 less in Andhra, CPI(M) 1 less than West Bengal. Wherever these parties become weak in the assembly, they will lose seats.

At the same time, the parties that benefit can be from the NDA party. In these, BJP can gain 7-9 seats i.e. total NDA can reach 145. Congress may gain 1-2 extra seats in DMK Tamil Nadu, but overall INDIA alliance will remain down.

Which big leaders are difficult to return to Rajya Sabha?

The return of big leaders seems difficult. Efforts are being made for re-election for Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge (Karnataka), but there is speculation that he will not return. Digvijay Singh (Madhya Pradesh) will not get a third term in place of Kamal Nath. HD Deve Gowda (Karnataka) JDS does not have the numbers so retirement is possible. Sharad Pawar (Maharashtra) term ends, NCP(SP) weak, Ranjan Gogoi (nominated) retire in March, Parimal Nathwani (Andhra) BJP will not give second term, Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya CPI(M). These are all speculations, but the comeback from party strength seems tough.

Overall, NDA will become stronger in Rajya Sabha in 2026, which will make it easier to pass bills. The opposition will have to change its strategy.