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Us recession: At this time, there is a lot of discussion about the American economy worldwide. There is also a special reason for that. When there is a recession in America, then its threat resonates all over the world. Amid the pressure in global trade due to the imposition of tariffs by President Donald Trump, India is trying to normalize its business relations with both countries China and America. In such a situation, even if there is a recession in the American, it is going to have very little effect on India’s growth rate.

Let us know what economists and investors are saying about this-

1- How many near recession America?

On 7 April in the Economist Poll of Reuters, it was said that there is a 45 per cent probability of recession in the next 12 months, which is the highest since December 2023. The reason for this is the forecast of GDP regarding 2025 and the fall of the Capex plan. Moody’s analyst Mark Jindi said in the podcast of March 2025 that by the end of 2025, there is about 40 percent of the recession. In the Opinion of Bloomberg, Author John said that such decisions are being taken by the wrong policy of 2008.

2-Will the global recession come from American recession?

If there is a recession in America, then its effect will be global in a situation when financial shock will be received like 2008. If this does not happen, then its effect will be less. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) dismissed the possibility of global recession, saying that the US recession in 2001 did not affect globally. The world’s GDP was growing at a speed of 2.5 per cent, but business growth had fallen.

The global recession was covered between 2007-09, which for the first time after the First World War, when GDP moved to 1.3 percent in 2009. However, due to the lockdown in 2020, the global GDP came to 3 percent, which happened for the first time since 1945. Obviously, even if there is a slowdown in America in such a situation, then experts believe that India will have the least impact.

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Trump Tariff: Financial commentator and CNBC show Mad Money’s host Jim Kramer predicted ‘Blade Mande’ on Saturday. Now he has feared a recession. However, he has urged investors to avoid selling shares in a hurry. Let us know that in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, he made this comment on Monday after a huge decline in Asian markets.

What did Craermer say on the recession?

Craermer says that the tariff may cause trouble for the US economy, but this does not mean that in the coming time, a gathering -like situation will arise because institutions are still strong.

The CNBC quoted Kramer in its report, “I don’t think the entire economic system is in danger.” I do not even think that big banks will fail. I definitely do not like things. Due to the wrong plans of the President, there is also a possibility of moving towards our recession, but we will come out of it somehow. ”

Trump can calm the stock market

Kramer said that Trump can calm the stock market. For this, they will have to do three things- inflation will have to be controlled, new business deals will have to be done quickly, the jobs will have to be kept stable. Craermer said that if Trump focuses more to taste China or bring manufacturing back to the US instead of strengthening business relations, investors may increase.

US stock market condition

On Monday, the US stock market was seen fluctuating. On one side, S&P 500 fell to 0.2 percent in index. At the same time, Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 349 points or 0.9 percent and Nasdac Composite recorded an increase of 0.1 percent.

These three index started the business with a decline. Later, Dow Jones fell to 1,700 points with even more fall in the global market. However, suddenly there was a surge of 900 points in the morning. Meanwhile, S&P 500 fell to 3.4 percent with a decline of 4.7 %, which is the biggest bounce in recent years.

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Goldman Sachs Report: The effect of trade war is now visible on the oil market. Goldman Sachs has rapidly cut the price estimate of its Brent crude and WTI oil. The average price of Brent is now estimated to be $ 69 per barrel and WTI to be $ 66 per barrel this year. Earlier this estimate was 5 to 6 percent more than this.

What did Goldman Sachs say?

The Oil Research Head of Goldman Sachs, Daan Struyven said in its report that the risk of recession is increasing by 2026 and the increasing production of OPEC+ from above… All these reasons we feel that the prices of crude oil may fall further. Not only this, the estimate of Brent crude for 2026 has now been estimated to $ 62 and WTI to $ 59. That is, there is a possibility of a decline in the long term.

Historical decline in oil prices

On Thursday and Friday, crude oil prices fell by more than 7 per cent. Brent crude price was $ 65.58 per barrel. While the WTI was $ 61.99 per barrel. Both these prices are at the lowest level of 4 years. Brent has fallen 10.9 percent in a week and WTI 10.6 percent has fallen, this decline is the biggest in the last two years.

What are the reasons for this heavy decline?

There are some major reasons behind this decline in crude oil. For example, China increased 34 percent tariff on the US, which deepened the trade war. In fact, the Trump government imposed heavy taxes on several countries one after the other, which is the highest in the last 100 years. Apart from this, OPEC+ countries suddenly announced to increase production from May and now they will bring back 411,000 barrels per day to the market. Earlier this figure was 135,000. At the same time, the Russian court rejected the petition to close the Caspian pipeline terminal, which will continue to supply from Kazakhstan. All these incidents have put heavy pressure on oil prices.

Recession of recession?

JPMorgan is now seeing 60 percent chance that by the end of this year, there can be a slowdown worldwide. Earlier this estimate was 40 percent. HSBC has also reduced the estimate of oil demand. Now they feel that the daily demand in 2025 will increase only 0.9 million barrels, earlier it was 1 million.

What does this mean for you?

If you are an investor, then this is the time to take decisions very cleverly. Crude falling prices may bring relief for some sectors (eg aviation, paints, FMCG), but the fear of trade war and recession is making the market uncertain.

Disclaimer: (The information provided here is being given only for information. It is necessary to tell here that the investment in the market is subject to risks. Always consult expert before investing as an investor. Abplive.com is never advised to invest money here.)

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Trump Tariff: American multinational financial service company JP Morgan has feared the recession of America by the end of 2025. The tariff policy of the responsible President Donald Trump can be appointed behind this. Let us know that on April 2, Trump created a panic in the global market by applying reciperook tariff on all the countries of the world. On Thursday, the US stock market declined drastically, which was the biggest decline in a day after 2020.

America’s GDP can be buried under tariff burden

Trump has also imposed a baseline tariff of 10 percent on all countries. Trump has imposed more tariffs on more than 60 countries including India. China has retaliated by putting a tariff of 34 percent on goods imported from America. Many more countries can also come forward.

According to the report of newspaper The Hill, in a note released on Friday, JP Morgan’s Chief US Economist Michael Feroli wrote that America’s GDP can be suppressed under the burden of tariff. He further warned that the unemployment rate is expected to increase by 5.3 percent due to economic recession.

The rate of growth may slow down

Jerome Powell, president of the US Federal Reserve, also expressed concern over this, saying, the tariff can give a much more heavy blow than earlier estimates. Speaking at a business journalism conference on Friday, Powell said, “Uncertainty remains, now the tariff will increase more than expected.” Its economic effects are more likely to include things like much inflation and low growth.

Trump may say that the tariff is aimed at promoting manufacturing in the US, but experts believe that it can cause a global economic recession. It will also have an adverse effect on emerging markets like India.

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Since Donald Trump became the US President, he has made many such announcements, including tariffs, which have a stir in the international market. Meanwhile, there may also be a threat of further recession in the US market. It is believed that the iconic brokerage firm Goldman Sachs.

He says that there is no scope for a lot of increase in the US market in the year 2025, because its experts have reduced the target of the main index S&P 500 hundred for the second time this month. The reason for this, he has explained the possibility of increasing recession and the ongoing uncertainty about tariffs.

The S&P 500 index measures the performance of the 500 largest listed companies in the US. The team of David Costin -led Goldman Sachs now also believes that by the end of the year, the level of S&P 500 will be around 5,700. Whereas, earlier he had estimated it to go up to 6,200.

US stock market estimated to fall

Costin wrote in his note that due to falling growth and increasing uncertainty, the stock has become more risky than before. Their valuation is decreasing. The new estimate is just 2 per cent higher in the level released after Friday and is one of the lowest estimates of Wall Street.

If the growth and investors confidently fall, then prices can fall even more than our expectation. He had earlier reduced the target of March 11 from 6500 to 6200. Especially in view of the fall in the prices of technology shares this year.

Tariff Policy Effects

Goldman Sachs has also increased the tariff estimate for the second time in a month. Now he says that in 2025, the average tariff in the US can be 15 percent more. Apart from this, for 2025, he has reduced the estimate of American GDP growth to just one percent.

A major reason for the decline in the US stock market is also a tariff policy of President Donald Trump. President Trump says that he is going to implement the reciperook tariff to all countries of the world. Earlier it was believed that it would remain at a limited level, but now it seems that this matter can be big.

It is obvious that the experts are constantly being warned by the experts that if the reciperook tariff is imposed then the prices of the products will increase. This production will have a direct impact and production will be reduced. The result will be that inflation will increase around the world and the risk of recession will increase. Now this estimate of Goldman Sachs is a seal on the fears of the experts.

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