The Indian Rupee is currently under heavy pressure and is continuously touching new record lows. On May 19, 2026, it reached the level of 96.52 against the dollar, which is the lowest level till date. At the beginning of the year 2026, the rupee was around 89, but till now it has weakened by 6-7%. There are many global and domestic reasons behind this decline. Tension between Iran and America has pushed crude oil prices above $105-107 per barrel. India imports 85% of its oil needs, hence rising oil prices have increased the import bill and the demand for dollars has increased. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are withdrawing money from Indian markets. So far Rs 2.65 lakh crore has been withdrawn in 2026.

In such a situation, there is only one question in everyone’s mind – will the rupee cross 100? Talking about this, many experts have given their opinion. Let us know the opinion of 5 experts, out of which 2 are in favor of the rupee crossing Rs 100, 2 are against and 1 is of neutral opinion…

In favor: These experts believe that the rupee can cross 100

Speaking to ANI, former UN advisor and economist Santosh Mehrotra said, ‘In the last three months, the rupee has fallen from below 90 to around 96 per dollar. This will have its own impact on inflation. He further warned, ‘If the current pressure continues, the rupee can very easily touch Rs 100 per dollar in the next quarter.’ His opinion strengthens the possibility of the rupee crossing Rs 100.

Currency expert K.N. Dey also does not rule out the possibility of the rupee crossing Rs 100. Speaking to ANI, he said, ‘The speed at which the rupee has fallen since May 11 has shocked the market, yet both the regulator and North Block are silent.’ He further said, ‘Since there is no bottom in sight, estimating the stability point is just a guess. Psychological slide towards 100 is also possible now. His statement explains the sudden turmoil in the market and the rapid pace of decline.

In opposition: These experts do not believe that the 100 mark is likely to be crossed any time soon.

Finance analyst and FX strategist Dheeraj Nim believes that RBI will not allow the rupee to reach the level of 100 anytime soon. Talking to a TV channel, he said, ‘We do not think that RBI will allow the rupee to go to the level of 100 at the moment.’ ANZ Research expects the rupee to end the year at 97.5 per dollar, indicating a move away from the 100 mark despite weakening from current levels.

Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX and EM Macro Strategy Asia (Barclays), told Business Standard, ‘It is not our forecast that the rupee will touch Rs 100 per dollar.’ However, he also admitted that the pace of rupee depreciation has been much faster and more shocking than he had anticipated. He said, ‘We have already crossed the levels which were earlier considered to be a forecast of recession.’ Nevertheless, he has clearly said that the level of 100 is not included in his official forecast.

Neutral: This expert does not consider controlled decline a matter of concern

Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, takes a balanced view on the rupee crossing Rs 100. In an interview to ANI, he said, ‘One day will we see the rupee going into three digits? There is a lot of possibility. However, his emphasis is on how this degradation occurs. He said, ‘If this is systematic depreciation, it ensures that our economy continues to compete.’ He believes that ‘rupee keeps falling against foreign currencies’ and if this happens without major changes and in an orderly manner then it is not a matter of concern, but a coordination has to be done to keep the economy competitive.

RBI’s role is important amid the fall of rupee

Whether the rupee will cross 100 or not will largely depend on oil prices and the trend of foreign investment. If tensions in West Asia ease, the rupee may come back to the level of 92-93. At the same time, RBI still has foreign exchange reserves of about 700 billion dollars, on the basis of which it can prevent excessive fluctuations in the rupee. However, if global conditions worsen further, the psychological level of 100 could become a real possibility.

At present, experts’ opinions are divided, but everyone agrees that the coming months are going to be very challenging for the Indian economy.

Dollar vs Rupee: The effect of increasing tension in the Middle East is also clearly visible on the Indian currency. The Indian rupee came under pressure on Thursday due to sharp rise in crude oil prices, strong dollar and selling by foreign investors. On the fourth trading day of the week, the Indian Rupee fell to the level of 92.36 against the American currency US Dollar. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.25 and fell further to reach 92.32 per dollar, which is about 31 paise weaker than the previous closing level. A day earlier the rupee had closed at 92.01 per dollar.

main reason for decline

According to forex traders, there are several reasons behind the weakness in the rupee: sharp rise in crude oil prices in the global market, strengthening of the US dollar, heavy selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and fall in domestic stock markets.

Global oil standard Brent Crude rose by about 9.94% to reach $ 101.12 per barrel. Situation of stock market: Pressure was seen in the domestic market also. BSE Sensex fell 992.53 points to 75,871.18 in early trade. NSE Nifty 50 fell by 310.55 points to the level of 23,556.30. According to stock market data, foreign investors sold shares worth Rs 6,267.31 crore on Wednesday.

Why so much pressure on the rupee?

India imports more than 80% of its oil needs. Therefore, when oil prices rise, the country’s import bill increases and oil companies need more dollars. This directly increases pressure on the Indian Rupee. Impact of global events: This surge in oil prices has come at a time when there has been news of an attack on an oil tanker in Iraq’s maritime zone.

Due to this, the possibility of global energy supply being affected has increased and an atmosphere of uncertainty has been created in the market. Experts believe that if tensions continue in the Middle East and oil prices remain high, then the pressure on the rupee may increase further in the coming days.

Also read: Chaos in the oil market! Price crossed 100 dollars, now Iran gave this warning